EPL Prediction: Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal (Saturday, September 13 at 11:30 AM ET)
| Market / Trend | NFO | ARS |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +700 | -300 |
| Total (O/U) | 2.5 | |
| Handicap | +1.2 (-102) | -1.2 (-109) |
| Last 5 GPG | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Record | 1-1-1 | 2-0-1 |
| Lines: Consensus | ||
More EPL picks: Nottingham Forest · Arsenal
Introduction
Through 2 matches, both Nottingham Forest and Arsenal are averaging 2.0 goals per game, creating an early-season trend that points toward a high-tempo matchup. Arsenal’s sharper conversion rate and stronger win percentage give them the edge, while Forest’s openness has left them vulnerable despite flashes of efficiency. This matchup sets up as one where Arsenal’s quality are positioned to dictate, with goals flowing on both sides of the ledger.
Game Time
Game time: Saturday, September 13 at 11:30 AM ET at Emirates Stadium.
Odds
- Nottingham Forest: +700
- Arsenal: -300
Total: 2.5
Handicap — Nottingham Forest: +1.5 (-102)
Handicap — Arsenal: -1.5 (-109)
Latest Team Records
Nottingham Forest: 1-1-1 (Win %: 0.333 )
Arsenal: 2-0-1 (Win %: 0.667 )
Lineups
No confirmed lineups yet.
Team Analysis
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest have shown a willingness to attack, generating 23 total shots with 9 on target, but their efficiency is masked by a heavy reliance on volume. A shot conversion rate of 17.4% is respectable, yet the need for 64 passes per attempt highlights a lack of incisiveness in midfield buildup. Against a disciplined Arsenal back line, that slower progression can stall their ability to sustain pressure.
Recent context reinforces the challenge: Forest’s last five and last ten outings both sit at 2.0 goals per game, suggesting they are consistent but not explosive. Their home record shows a split of one win and one loss, while away form remains untested. With discipline issues already visible through four yellow cards, Forest risk ceding control in key moments, a dangerous trend against a superior opponent.
- Goals: 4
- Total Shots: 23
- Shots on Target: 9
- Total Passes: 1472
- Yellow Cards: 4
- Hit Woodwork: 1
- Offsides: 4
- Shot Conversion: 17.4%
- Passes per Shot: 64.00
- Discipline: Y:4 • R:0 • Off:4
Away Record: 0-1-0 • Home Record: 1-0-1 • Last 5: 1-1-1 (2.0 GPG) • Last 10: 1-1-1 (2.0 GPG)
Arsenal
Arsenal’s attack has been sharper, with a 25% conversion rate from 24 shots, a clear indicator of clinical finishing. Their average of just over 52 passes per shot reflects a directness that contrasts Forest’s slower buildup, making them especially dangerous at home. Backed by two clean sheets already, Arsenal are balancing defensive control with efficient scoring.
At the Emirates, Arsenal have been perfect with a 1-0-0 home record, complementing a solid away showing. Their last five and last ten matches both feature 2.0 goals per game, underlining a steady offensive output that aligns with their win percentage. With discipline kept manageable despite six bookings, Arsenal’s structure and consistency position them to dictate tempo and finish chances decisively.
- Goals: 6
- Total Shots: 24
- Shots on Target: 9
- Total Passes: 1264
- Clean Sheets: 2
- Yellow Cards: 6
- Offsides: 2
- Shot Conversion: 25.0%
- Passes per Shot: 52.67
- Discipline: Y:6 • R:0 • Off:2
Home Record: 1-0-0 • Away Record: 1-0-1 • Last 5: 2-0-1 (2.0 GPG) • Last 10: 2-0-1 (2.0 GPG)
Head-to-Head
These sides haven’t met in 2025 yet; treat H2H as neutral.
O/U Trends
Arsenal’s recent matches have averaged 2.0 total goals and Nottingham Forest’s have averaged 2.0. Combined recent output 4.0 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.
Moneyline Prediction
Arsenal’s superior conversion rate, defensive solidity, and perfect home record make them the clear choice to win. Nottingham Forest’s slower buildup and inconsistency at home leave them exposed, and Arsenal’s ability to finish efficiently are positioned to matchup the contest firmly in their favor.
Edge sits with Arsenal across form and goal threat.
Over/Under Prediction
Arsenal have produced 2.0 GPG and Nottingham Forest 2.0 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.
These clubs are combining for 4.0 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5.
Bookmakers
Pricing reflects a market consensus across major sportsbooks.
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EPL Predictions FAQ
Quick answers about how we price matches and bet EPL totals.
How big should my bets be?
Use steady units of 1–2% of bankroll. Keep parlays small and focused. Discipline protects long-term ROI.
How does Parlamaz handicap Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
First, we check the market for openers and moves. Next, we price the match with recent form, last-5 GPG, xG/xGA, home and away splits, and likely XI. We bet only when our price beats the market.
