EPL Prediction: Arsenal vs Fulham (Saturday, October 18 at 12:30 PM ET)
| Market / Trend | ARS | FUL |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -190 | +500 |
| Total (O/U) | 2.5 | |
| Handicap | -1.0 (-102) | +1.0 (-115) |
| Last 5 GPG | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Record | 5-1-1 | 2-2-3 |
| Lines: FanDuel, 1xBet, Pinnacle | ||
More EPL picks: Arsenal · Fulham
Introduction
Early-season data shows Arsenal generating higher shot volume and conversion efficiency than Fulham, signaling a clear attacking edge. With both sides averaging nearly three goals combined per match, the scoring tempo is already pronounced even in this small sample. The early-season sample reinforces Arsenal’s consistency in front of goal and Fulham’s susceptibility when pressed. Expect a confident, assertive Arsenal approach in this EPL matchup.
Game Time
Game time: Saturday, October 18 at 12:30 PM ET at Craven Cottage.
Odds
- Arsenal: -190
- Fulham: +500
Total: 2.5
Handicap — Arsenal: -1.0 (-102)
Handicap — Fulham: +1.0 (-115)
Latest Team Records
Arsenal: 5-1-1 (Win %: 0.714 )
Fulham: 2-2-3 (Win %: 0.286 )
Team Analysis
Arsenal
Arsenal’s record of five wins and one loss underscores a side that consistently controls matches through possession and precision. Their 14 goals from 70 shots translate to a 20% conversion rate, showing efficiency rather than volume dependency. With four clean sheets and disciplined play, this group has balanced attacking aggression with defensive structure.
Their last five performances at 1.5 goals per game indicate steady production, supported by a measured 48 passes per shot that highlights patient buildup. Away results of two wins and one draw show reliability on the road, even under pressure. Against Fulham, that blend of control and finishing quality are positioned to sustain an assertive tempo that drives the total upward.
- Goals: 14
- Total Shots: 70
- Shots on Target: 29
- Total Passes: 3385
- Clean Sheets: 4
- Yellow Cards: 9
- Hit Woodwork: 3
- Offsides: 9
- Shot Conversion: 20.0%
- Passes per Shot: 48.36
- Discipline: Y:9 • R:0 • Off:9
Away Record: 2-0-1 • Home Record: 3-1-0 • Last 5: 5-1-1 (1.5 GPG) • Last 10: 5-1-1 (1.5 GPG)
Arsenal: 70 total shots (season) • 29 on target (season)
Fulham
Fulham’s home record of two wins and one loss reflects a side capable of competing at Craven Cottage but still seeking consistency. Their 8 goals from 52 shots show a moderate 15.4% conversion rate, suggesting they can score when space opens but struggle to sustain pressure. With just one clean sheet, defensive gaps remain an issue against teams with Arsenal’s passing rhythm.
Across their last five matches, Fulham have averaged 1.4 goals per game, hinting at limited attacking variance but enough to contribute to a higher total. The home crowd often sparks early energy, yet their uneven defensive response leaves them exposed in transition. That dynamic aligns with an open contest where Arsenal’s precision and Fulham’s opportunism combine to push the scoreline over the number.
- Goals: 8
- Total Shots: 52
- Shots on Target: 23
- Total Passes: 3051
- Clean Sheets: 1
- Yellow Cards: 16
- Offsides: 14
- Shot Conversion: 15.4%
- Passes per Shot: 58.67
- Discipline: Y:16 • R:0 • Off:14
Home Record: 2-1-0 • Away Record: 0-1-3 • Last 5: 2-2-3 (1.4 GPG) • Last 10: 2-2-3 (1.4 GPG)
Fulham: 52 total shots (season) • 23 on target (season)
Head-to-Head
These sides haven’t met in 2025 yet; treat H2H as neutral.
O/U Trends
Fulham’s recent matches have averaged 1.4 total goals and Arsenal’s have averaged 1.5. Combined recent output 2.9 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.
Moneyline Prediction
Arsenal’s controlled passing and balanced shot profile give them the upper hand against a Fulham side still uneven at home. Their efficiency in converting chances and maintaining defensive shape supports a decisive edge in this matchup. Arsenal are positioned to secure the win through sustained possession and sharper execution in the final third.
Draw safety: Low — no clear draw indicators.
Numbers back Arsenal; the profile is too strong to fade.
Over/Under Prediction
Fulham have produced 1.4 GPG and Arsenal 1.5 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.
These clubs are combining for 2.9 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5.
Bookmakers
Pricing courtesy of:
- FanDuel
- 1xBet
- Pinnacle
Parlamaz earns affiliate commissions from links.
EPL Predictions FAQ
Quick answers about how we price matches and bet EPL totals.
How does Parlamaz handicap Arsenal vs Fulham?
First, we check the market for openers and moves. Next, we price the match with recent form, last-5 GPG, xG/xGA, home and away splits, and likely XI. We bet only when our price beats the market.
What do moneyline, Asian handicap, and total mean in EPL betting?
Moneyline: who wins the match. Asian handicap: a spread like -0.25 or -0.5 that can refund part of a draw. Total: combined goals, often 2.5. When Asian or DNB adds value, we say so.
