More EPL picks: Brighton and Hove Albion · Wolverhampton Wanderers

Introduction

Both Brighton and Wolverhampton come into this matchup with a combined recent output of 3.1 goals per game, a figure that immediately highlights the Over/Under angle. Brighton’s attack has been efficient in spurts, while Wolves have struggled to convert but still generate enough opportunities to keep games lively. With the early-season sample still shaping team identity, this matchup sets up as a decisive test of efficiency versus resilience.

Game Time

Game time: Sunday, October 5 at 09:00 AM ET at Molineux Stadium.

Odds

• Brighton and Hove Albion: -105
• Wolverhampton Wanderers: +280

Total: 2.5

Handicap — Brighton and Hove Albion: -0.5 (+101)
Handicap — Wolverhampton Wanderers: +0.5 (-111)

Latest Team Records

Brighton and Hove Albion: 2-2-2 (Win %: 0.333 )
Wolverhampton Wanderers: 0-1-5 (Win %: 0.000 )

Lineups

No confirmed lineups yet.

Team Analysis

Brighton and Hove Albion

Brighton have netted nine goals on 52 total shots, showing a respectable conversion rate that reflects their ability to capitalize on opportunities. Their passing rhythm is deliberate, averaging over 42 passes per shot, which can slow tempo but also create structured build-up play. With 18 yellow cards already, discipline has been a concern and can become a factor against Wolves’ countering style.

Looking at the trajectory, Brighton’s last five and last ten matches both average 1.8 goals per game, suggesting a steady offensive baseline rather than explosive surges. Their home record of 1-2-0 shows they can grind out results but have not been dominant. Against a Wolves side eager to break through, Brighton’s consistency can not be enough to dictate the final outcome.

• Goals: 9
• Total Shots: 52
• Shots on Target: 24
• Total Passes: 2229
• Yellow Cards: 18
• Hit Woodwork: 2
• Offsides: 12
• Shot Conversion: 17.3%
• Passes per Shot: 42.87
• Discipline: Y:18 • R:0 • Off:12

Away Record: 1-0-2 • Home Record: 1-2-0 • Last 5: 2-2-2 (1.8 GPG) • Last 10: 2-2-2 (1.8 GPG)

Brighton and Hove Albion: 52 total shots (season) • 24 on target (season)

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Wolves have only scored four goals from 43 shots, but the numbers show they are creating looks, just lacking sharpness in front of goal. Their shot conversion rate sits under 10%, yet playing at Molineux can spark urgency and force opponents into mistakes. With fewer disciplinary issues than Brighton, Wolves can maintain composure in critical phases of the match.

Despite a winless record, Wolverhampton Wanderers’ recent average of 1.3 goals per game shows they are not toothless in attack. Their home form has been poor on paper, but this contest offers the opportunity to reset momentum in front of their supporters. Given the stylistic matchup, Wolves’ ability to disrupt Brighton’s structured passing game positions them as the value side.

• Goals: 4
• Total Shots: 43
• Shots on Target: 20
• Total Passes: 2469
• Yellow Cards: 12
• Hit Woodwork: 1
• Offsides: 8
• Shot Conversion: 9.3%
• Passes per Shot: 57.42
• Discipline: Y:12 • R:0 • Off:8

Home Record: 0-0-3 • Away Record: 0-1-2 • Last 5: 0-1-5 (1.3 GPG) • Last 10: 0-1-5 (1.3 GPG)

Wolverhampton Wanderers: 43 total shots (season) • 20 on target (season)

Head-to-Head

O/U Trends

Wolverhampton Wanderers’s recent matches have averaged 1.3 total goals and Brighton and Hove Albion’s have averaged 1.8. Combined recent output 3.1 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.

Moneyline Prediction

Wolverhampton Wanderers present strong value at +280, especially when factoring in Brighton’s inconsistency and disciplinary lapses. Wolves’ ability to frustrate possession-heavy sides and exploit transitional moments makes them the sharper pick. This is the spot where Wolverhampton can convert pressure into points.

Draw safety: Low — no clear draw indicators.

Wolverhampton Wanderers are the right side on balance of chances and recent output.

Over/Under Prediction

Wolverhampton Wanderers have produced 1.3 GPG and Brighton and Hove Albion 1.8 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.

These clubs are combining for 3.1 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5.

Bookmakers

Pricing courtesy of:

• FanDuel
• 1xBet
• Pinnacle

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college athlete.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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