MLB Prediction: Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres (Friday, September 12 at 09:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | COL | SD |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +210 | -263 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (106) | -1.5 (-126) |
| Last 5 RPG | 0.8 | 3.4 |
| Record | 40–106 | 79–67 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Colorado Rockies · San Diego Padres
Colorado Rockies’ offense has collapsed to just 0.8 runs per game across its last five contests, a slump that sharp bettors will weigh heavily in this MLB prediction against San Diego. The Padres have been only marginally better at 3.4 runs per game over the same stretch, leaving both lineups struggling to generate consistent production. With both teams trending toward suppressed scoring, value emerges on the Rockies’ side as an overlooked moneyline play supported by a clear Under lean on the total.
Game Time
On tap at Friday, September 12 at 09:40 PM ET at Petco Park, a run-suppressing coastal venue.
Odds & Spread Line
- Colorado Rockies: +210
- San Diego Padres: -263
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Colorado Rockies: +1.5 (+106)
- Run Line — San Diego Padres: -1.5 (-126)
Latest Team Records
Colorado Rockies: 40-106 (Win %: 0.274)
San Diego Padres: 79-67 (Win %: 0.541)
Injury Report
Colorado Rockies are missing Chase Dollander (Knee), listed as Out; Luis Peralta (Hip), listed as 15-Day-IL.
The San Diego Padres are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Colorado Rockies
- Hunter Goodman: 0.28 AVG, 30 HR, 87 RBI
- Mickey Moniak: 0.262 AVG, 19 HR, 57 RBI
- Jordan Beck: 0.267 AVG, 15 HR, 50 RBI
San Diego Padres
- Ramon Laureano: 0.292 AVG, 23 HR, 71 RBI
- Manny Machado: 0.272 AVG, 23 HR, 84 RBI
- Fernando Tatis Jr.: 0.26 AVG, 21 HR, 63 RBI
Team Analysis
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies’ 0-5 mark in their last five games, with just 0.8 runs per game, highlights a lineup stuck in a slump. Despite the struggles, Hunter Goodman’s power profile anchors a lineup that has the potential to break through against a Padres staff that has shown vulnerability in recent weeks. The road record is poor, but sharp bettors recognize that undervaluation creates opportunity when a team is priced aggressively as an underdog.
Over the last 10 games, Colorado has been held to 2.9 runs per game, reinforcing the inconsistency. However, Mickey Moniak and Jordan Beck add balance to an order that can find timely hits, especially when opponents underestimate the Rockies’ ability to string together scoring chances. With expectations at rock bottom, this is the exact type of spot where a contrarian moneyline strike makes sense.
- Batting Average: 0.238
- Total Runs Scored: 545
- Home Runs: 144
- OBP: 0.295
- SLG: 0.388
- OPS: 0.684
- ERA: 5.98
- WHIP: 1.6
Away Record: 17-55 • Home Record: 23-52
Last 5 Games: 0-5 (0.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 1-9 (2.9 RPG)
San Diego Padres
The Padres’ 3-2 record in their last five games, paired with 3.4 runs per game, shows a team managing to grind out wins despite muted offensive output. Manny Machado remains the most consistent run producer, but the lineup as a whole has not been firing at peak levels. At home, San Diego is stronger overall, yet the recent dip in scoring efficiency tempers confidence in their ability to separate.
Across the last 10 games, San Diego has gone 4-6 with 3.7 runs per game, signaling a lack of rhythm. Ramon Laureano provides stability while Fernando Tatis Jr. can change a game quickly, but the supporting cast has been inconsistent. With the Rockies priced as heavy underdogs, the Padres’ inability to consistently bury teams leaves the door open for value on the other side.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 619
- Home Runs: 129
- OBP: 0.32
- SLG: 0.385
- OPS: 0.706
- ERA: 3.62
- WHIP: 1.2
Away Record: 35-40 • Home Record: 45-27
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (3.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (3.7 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
San Diego Padres lead 6–2 (Last 8 games)
- September 11, 2025: COL 0 @ SD 2
- September 07, 2025: SD 8 @ COL 1
- September 06, 2025: SD 10 @ COL 8
- September 05, 2025: SD 0 @ COL 3
- May 11, 2025: SD 3 @ COL 9
- May 10, 2025: SD 21 @ COL 0
- May 09, 2025: SD 13 @ COL 9
- April 13, 2025: COL 0 @ SD 6
Over/Under Trends
Colorado Rockies’ last 10 games have averaged 9.3 total runs, with 7 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
San Diego Padres’ last 10 games have averaged 7.5 combined runs, with 3 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Rockies’ depressed scoring metrics have created a market overreaction, making them the sharper side against a Padres team that has failed to separate offensively in recent weeks. With Hunter Goodman’s power threat and situational upside from Mickey Moniak and Jordan Beck, Colorado is positioned to capitalize on a low-scoring environment where one timely swing can dictate the outcome.
Mismatch vs perception: the Colorado Rockies at +210 are the sharper angle.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the San Diego Padres are at 3.4 RPG and the Colorado Rockies at 0.8 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 4.2 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Under 8.5.
Bookmakers
You’ll find these markets at: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, Bov
MLB Predictions FAQ
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
How does Parlamaz make Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
