Introduction

More MLB picks: Baltimore Orioles · New York Yankees

The Yankees have ripped off a 5‑0 surge while averaging 6.2 runs per game, a stark contrast to the Orioles’ inconsistent 2‑3 mark across their last five. This betting preview highlights a matchup where New York Yankees’ offensive consistency and head‑to‑head dominance tilt the balance. With the Orioles averaging just 3.8 RPG in that same span, the gap in production is decisive, making this an MLB prediction that leans heavily toward New York and a higher‑scoring outcome.

Game Time

Taking place at Saturday, September 27 at 01:05 PM ET inside Yankee Stadium, left-handed pop plays up.

Odds & Spread Line

• Baltimore Orioles: +190
• New York Yankees: -233

Total: 8.5

• Run Line — Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-110)
• Run Line — New York Yankees: -1.5 (-110)

Latest Team Records

Baltimore Orioles: 75-85 (Win %: 0.469)
New York Yankees: 92-68 (Win %: 0.575)

Injury Report

Baltimore Orioles are missing Albert Suarez (Elbow), listed as 15-Day-IL; Gary Sanchez (Knee), listed as 60-Day-IL; Chayce McDermott (Back), listed as 15-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.

The New York Yankees are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.

Key Player Stats

Baltimore Orioles

• Gunnar Henderson: 0.274 AVG, 16 HR, 67 RBI
• Jackson Holliday: 0.245 AVG, 17 HR, 55 RBI
• Jordan Westburg: 0.26 AVG, 15 HR, 37 RBI

New York Yankees

• Aaron Judge: 0.33 AVG, 51 HR, 109 RBI
• Cody Bellinger: 0.269 AVG, 29 HR, 97 RBI
• Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 0.245 AVG, 31 HR, 80 RBI

Team Analysis

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles enter this contest with a 2‑3 mark in their last five games, producing 3.8 runs per outing, which drives home their uneven rhythm. Their 36‑43 road record reinforces the lack of dependability away from home, and the inconsistency limits their appeal in this spot. Gunnar Henderson has provided some lift, but the team’s broader offensive profile has not matched up against stronger pitching staffs.

Looking at the last 10 games, Baltimore sits at 5‑5 while averaging 3.5 RPG, which is not enough to reliably challenge high‑scoring opponents. Jackson Holliday has flashed power, yet the lineup’s inability to sustain rallies has kept run totals capped. Jordan Westburg adds depth, but the collective scoring output remains middling, leaving Baltimore vulnerable against the Yankees’ surging bats.

• Batting Average: 0.236
• Total Runs Scored: 670
• Home Runs: 186
• OBP: 0.305
• SLG: 0.395
• OPS: 0.701
• ERA: 4.57
• WHIP: 1.37

Away Record: 36-43 • Home Record: 39-42
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (3.5 RPG)

New York Yankees

The Yankees have surged to a 5‑0 mark in their last five outings, hammering 6.2 runs per game and showing complete control of the scoreboard. Their 48‑31 home record demonstrates comfort in this setting, and the offense has been relentless. Aaron Judge’s production at the heart of the order sets the tone, forcing pitchers into high‑leverage situations that New York consistently capitalizes on.

Over the last 10 games, the Yankees are 9‑1 with 6.6 RPG, reflecting sustained dominance and rhythm. Cody Bellinger has added balance with consistent power, while Jazz Chisholm Jr. provides another layer of run‑driving ability. This combination of recent form, home success, and lineup depth makes New York the clear side to trust.

• Batting Average: 0.251
• Total Runs Scored: 832
• Home Runs: 266
• OBP: 0.332
• SLG: 0.454
• OPS: 0.786
• ERA: 3.94
• WHIP: 1.25

Away Record: 44-37 • Home Record: 48-31
Last 5 Games: 5-0 (6.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 9-1 (6.6 RPG)

Head-to-Head History

New York Yankees lead 6–2 (Last 8 games)

• September 26, 2025: BAL 4 @ NYY 8
• September 21, 2025: NYY 7 @ BAL 1
• September 20, 2025: NYY 6 @ BAL 1
• September 19, 2025: NYY 2 @ BAL 4
• September 18, 2025: NYY 7 @ BAL 0
• June 22, 2025: BAL 2 @ NYY 4
• June 21, 2025: BAL 0 @ NYY 9
• June 20, 2025: BAL 5 @ NYY 3

Over/Under Trends

Baltimore Orioles’ last 10 games have averaged 8.4 total runs, with 3 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.

New York Yankees’ last 10 games have averaged 9.6 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 8.5.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

The Yankees’ 9‑1 surge over their last 10, paired with a dominant 48‑31 home record, makes them the clear side against a Baltimore team that has struggled on the road. With Aaron Judge anchoring a lineup that consistently produces and a 6‑2 head‑to‑head edge, New York Yankees’ form and situational strength leave no doubt about the superior moneyline play.

We’re backing the New York Yankees to handle business.

Over/Under Prediction

In their last five, the New York Yankees have produced 6.2 RPG and the Baltimore Orioles 3.8. That output frames how this total sets up.

These teams are combining for 10.0 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.

Bookmakers

MLB Predictions FAQ

John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ World Series run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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