EPL Prediction: Everton vs Manchester City (Saturday, October 18 at 10:00 AM ET)
| Market / Trend | EVE | MCI |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +650 | -290 |
| Total (O/U) | 2.5 | |
| Handicap | +1.5 (-106) | -1.5 (-110) |
| Last 5 GPG | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Record | 3-2-2 | 4-1-2 |
| Lines: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, Pinnacle | ||
More EPL picks: Everton · Manchester City
Introduction
Early-season Premier League data shows both Everton and Manchester City generating high goal involvement, with their recent combined average exceeding four goals per match. While the sample is still developing, City’s attacking rhythm has already separated them from most of the league. Everton’s solid start offers resistance, but the metrics point toward City’s sharper final-third execution and control of possession as decisive factors.
Game Time
Game time: Saturday, October 18 at 10:00 AM ET at Etihad Stadium.
Odds
- Everton: +650
- Manchester City: -290
Total: 2.5
Handicap — Everton: +1.5 (-106)
Handicap — Manchester City: -1.5 (-110)
Latest Team Records
Everton: 3-2-2 (Win %: 0.429 )
Manchester City: 4-1-2 (Win %: 0.571 )
Team Analysis
Everton
Everton have delivered nine goals from 58 total shots, turning roughly one in six attempts into a score. Their 46.76 passes per shot show a patient buildup, but that slower tempo can struggle against high-pressing sides like Manchester City. Two clean sheets in seven matches highlight defensive discipline, yet their 18 yellow cards reveal a tendency to break rhythm through fouls when stretched.
Recent form shows stability rather than dominance, with a 1.8 goals-per-game average across both the last five and ten matches. That balanced output signals consistency but not explosive scoring power, which can be exposed against City’s structured possession. Everton’s home record of 2-2-0 underscores resilience, though the transition Defence will be tested by City’s quicker ball circulation.
- Goals: 9
- Total Shots: 58
- Shots on Target: 25
- Total Passes: 2712
- Clean Sheets: 2
- Yellow Cards: 18
- Hit Woodwork: 1
- Offsides: 6
- Shot Conversion: 15.5%
- Passes per Shot: 46.76
- Discipline: Y:18 • R:0 • Off:6
Away Record: 1-0-2 • Home Record: 2-2-0 • Last 5: 3-2-2 (1.8 GPG) • Last 10: 3-2-2 (1.8 GPG)
Everton: 58 total shots (season) • 25 on target (season)
Manchester City
Manchester City’s 15 goals from 68 shots underscore a ruthless 22.1% conversion rate, powered by precision in the final third. Their 55.66 passes per shot reflect dominant control, ensuring they dictate tempo and territory at home. Three clean sheets add balance, proving City can manage risk even while pushing numbers forward.
At the Etihad, City’s 2-0-1 home record demonstrates command and depth. Their 2.3 goals per game in recent form outpaces Everton’s attack, aligning with the expectation of sustained pressure and multiple scoring avenues. With fewer cards and better discipline, City’s structure are positioned to overwhelm Everton’s slower buildup and turn possession into points.
- Goals: 15
- Total Shots: 68
- Shots on Target: 32
- Total Passes: 3785
- Clean Sheets: 3
- Yellow Cards: 10
- Hit Woodwork: 1
- Offsides: 6
- Shot Conversion: 22.1%
- Passes per Shot: 55.66
- Discipline: Y:10 • R:0 • Off:6
Home Record: 2-0-1 • Away Record: 2-1-1 • Last 5: 4-1-2 (2.3 GPG) • Last 10: 4-1-2 (2.3 GPG)
Manchester City: 68 total shots (season) • 32 on target (season)
Head-to-Head
These sides haven’t met in 2025 yet; treat H2H as neutral.
O/U Trends
Manchester City’s recent matches have averaged 2.3 total goals and Everton’s have averaged 1.8. Combined recent output 4.1 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.
Moneyline Prediction
Manchester City’s superior conversion rate, possession control, and home consistency make them the clear selection. Their structured buildup and disciplined Defence are positioned to neutralize Everton’s slower approach and turn sustained pressure into scoring chances. Expect City to impose their rhythm early and maintain command through the final whistle.
Draw safety: Low — no clear draw indicators.
Numbers back Manchester City; the profile is too strong to fade.
Over/Under Prediction
Manchester City have produced 2.3 GPG and Everton 1.8 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.
These clubs are combining for 4.1 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5.
Bookmakers
Pricing courtesy of:
- FanDuel
- MyBookie.ag
- Pinnacle
Parlamaz earns affiliate commissions from links.
EPL Predictions FAQ
Quick answers about how we price matches and bet EPL totals.
Why do we show Last-5 GPG?
Last-5 GPG shows current scoring form. It updates faster than season numbers. We pair it with xG so one wild result does not swing the view.
What’s a sensible price range for Everton vs Manchester City (Oct 18, 2025)?
Each post lists a target 'bet down to' price. If the market moves past it, reduce unit size or pass. Line shopping across books adds easy edge.
What do moneyline, Asian handicap, and total mean in EPL betting?
Moneyline: who wins the match. Asian handicap: a spread like -0.25 or -0.5 that can refund part of a draw. Total: combined goals, often 2.5. When Asian or DNB adds value, we say so.
