More EPL picks: Arsenal · Newcastle United

Introduction

Across their last five matches, Arsenal have averaged just 1.0 goals per game while Newcastle United have doubled that output at 2.0, a clear signal of where attacking momentum lies. In an early-season sample, such contrasts in scoring rates are particularly telling, pointing to a matchup where Newcastle United’s offensive pace can matchup the balance. This matchup sets up as a test of Arsenal’s defensive steadiness against a Newcastle side that looks more dangerous in front of goal.

Game Time

Game time: Sunday, September 28 at 11:30 AM ET at St James’ Park.

Odds

• Arsenal: +115
• Newcastle United: +260

Total: 2.5

Handicap — Arsenal: -0.5 (-117)
Handicap — Newcastle United: +0.5 (+106)

Latest Team Records

Arsenal: 3-1-1 (Win %: 0.600 )
Newcastle United: 1-3-1 (Win %: 0.200 )

Lineups

No confirmed lineups yet.

Team Analysis

Arsenal

Arsenal’s early campaign has been defined by efficiency in front of goal, with 10 goals from just 44 shots, yielding a conversion rate above 22%. That level of sharpness has helped them maintain three clean sheets, but the underlying volume of chances created remains modest. Against a Newcastle side that presses and produces higher goal returns, Arsenal’s reliance on precision finishing can be tested.

In their last five outings, Arsenal have averaged only 1.0 goal per game, a steady but unspectacular rate that doesn’t overwhelm opponents. Their passing rhythm is deliberate, averaging over 50 passes per shot, which can slow tempo but also limit attacking waves. That measured style can struggle to match Newcastle United’s more direct scoring form, especially given the momentum Newcastle carry into this fixture.

• Goals: 10
• Total Shots: 44
• Shots on Target: 17
• Total Passes: 2324
• Clean Sheets: 3
• Yellow Cards: 8
• Hit Woodwork: 1
• Offsides: 8
• Shot Conversion: 22.7%
• Passes per Shot: 52.82
• Discipline: Y:8 • R:0 • Off:8

Away Record: 1-0-1 • Home Record: 2-1-0 • Last 5: 3-1-1 (1.0 GPG) • Last 10: 3-1-1 (1.0 GPG)

Arsenal: 44 total shots (season) • 17 on target (season)

Newcastle United

Newcastle United’s home form has been more encouraging, with one win from two at St James’ Park and a strong record of four clean sheets overall. Despite a low shot conversion rate under 9%, they have still managed to average 2.0 goals per game across their last five, showing that when they do break through, they score in volume. That dual capacity to defend stoutly while still producing goals at home makes them a dangerous underdog.

Recent trends show Newcastle playing at a faster scoring clip than Arsenal, with a consistent 2.0 GPG across both last five and last ten matches. Their passing numbers suggest patience, nearly 60 passes per shot, but the end product has been decisive enough to matchup contests. With the crowd behind them and Arsenal’s attack looking more conservative, Newcastle United’s forward momentum positions them as the side more likely to dictate the scoreboard.

• Goals: 3
• Total Shots: 35
• Shots on Target: 13
• Total Passes: 2084
• Clean Sheets: 4
• Yellow Cards: 6
• Hit Woodwork: 1
• Offsides: 4
• Shot Conversion: 8.6%
• Passes per Shot: 59.54
• Discipline: Y:6 • R:0 • Off:4

Home Record: 1-0-1 • Away Record: 0-3-0 • Last 5: 1-3-1 (2.0 GPG) • Last 10: 1-3-1 (2.0 GPG)

Newcastle United: 35 total shots (season) • 13 on target (season)

Head-to-Head

O/U Trends

Newcastle United’s recent matches have averaged 2.0 total goals and Arsenal’s have averaged 1.0. Combined recent output 3.0 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.

Moneyline Prediction

Newcastle United’s higher recent scoring rate, combined with their ability to defend consistently at home, gives them the edge over an Arsenal side that has leaned more on precision than volume. At +260, the value and matchup dynamics align, making Newcastle the clear pick to come out on top at St James’ Park.

Draw safety: Low — no clear draw indicators.

Newcastle United are the right side on balance of chances and recent output.

Over/Under Prediction

Newcastle United have produced 2.0 GPG and Arsenal 1.0 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.

These clubs are combining for 3.0 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5.

Bookmakers

Pricing courtesy of:

• FanDuel
• 1xBet
• Pinnacle

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college athlete.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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