MLB Prediction: Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees (Thursday, September 11 at 07:05 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | DET | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +135 | -161 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-148) | -1.5 (122) |
| Last 5 RPG | 7.6 | 2.2 |
| Record | 83–62 | 80–64 |
| Lines: Caesars, FanDuel, MyBookie.ag | ||
More MLB picks: Detroit Tigers · New York Yankees
The Tigers and Yankees enter this matchup with contrasting recent scoring profiles, as Detroit has averaged 7.6 runs per game across its last five while New York has been limited to 2.2. That disparity creates a sharp angle for an MLB prediction, with the Yankees’ home edge and lineup power setting up a rebound spot despite Detroit Tigers’ short-term scoring surge. With the Tigers splitting their last ten and the Yankees also sitting at 5–5, the decisive factor lies in New York Yankees’ ability to capitalize on Yankee Stadium’s left-handed pop advantage and turn their lineup depth into sustained production.
Game Time
First pitch is set for Thursday, September 11 at 07:05 PM ET inside Yankee Stadium, left-handed pop plays up.
Odds & Spread Line
- Detroit Tigers: +135
- New York Yankees: -161
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Detroit Tigers: +1.5 (-148)
- Run Line — New York Yankees: -1.5 (+122)
Latest Team Records
Detroit Tigers: 83-62 (Win %: 0.572)
New York Yankees: 80-64 (Win %: 0.556)
Injury Report
The Detroit Tigers are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
New York Yankees are missing Oswaldo Cabrera (Ankle), listed as 60-Day-IL.
Key Player Stats
Detroit Tigers
- Riley Greene: 0.269 AVG, 32 HR, 104 RBI
- Spencer Torkelson: 0.234 AVG, 28 HR, 72 RBI
- Kerry Carpenter: 0.255 AVG, 23 HR, 57 RBI
New York Yankees
- Aaron Judge: 0.321 AVG, 44 HR, 98 RBI
- Cody Bellinger: 0.276 AVG, 28 HR, 89 RBI
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 0.239 AVG, 28 HR, 70 RBI
Team Analysis
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers have carried a steady 83-62 record, but their recent 3-2 stretch highlights both offensive bursts and uneven consistency. Scoring 7.6 runs per game in that span demonstrates their ability to overwhelm opponents when Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson are locked in, yet the split record in their last ten exposes volatility. On the road, they sit slightly above .500, which reinforces that this lineup delivers but doesn’t dominate away from home.
Detroit Tigers’ offensive output has been high, but their 5-5 mark in the last ten games shows a team that lacks sustained control over series. Kerry Carpenter adds depth to the lineup, though the Tigers’ inconsistency in close contests has prevented them from creating separation in the standings. Against a Yankees team with superior home splits, Detroit Tigers’ road form suggests they are more likely to regress toward average production in this spot.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 707
- Home Runs: 181
- OBP: 0.319
- SLG: 0.421
- OPS: 0.74
- ERA: 3.88
- WHIP: 1.23
Away Record: 38-33 • Home Record: 46-29
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (7.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (6.3 RPG)
New York Yankees
The Yankees have posted an 80-64 record, and while their last five games produced only 2.2 runs per contest, their home record of 43-31 shows why they remain the stronger betting side. Aaron Judge continues to anchor the offense with elite power, and his presence alone shifts opposing pitching approaches. Playing at Yankee Stadium, the lineup profile is built for a bounce-back performance after recent low-scoring outputs.
The 5-5 mark in their last ten games reflects neutral form, yet Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm Jr. give the Yankees depth beyond their centerpiece. Their lineup has the proven ability to elevate run totals quickly, especially in hitter-friendly conditions at home. With Detroit Tigers’ pitching staff facing a more potent environment than recent series, the Yankees’ situational edge is decisive.
- Batting Average: 0.248
- Total Runs Scored: 751
- Home Runs: 245
- OBP: 0.329
- SLG: 0.453
- OPS: 0.782
- ERA: 3.97
- WHIP: 1.26
Away Record: 37-34 • Home Record: 43-31
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (2.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.0 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Detroit Tigers lead 4–1 (Last 5 games)
- September 10, 2025: DET 11 @ NYY 1
- September 09, 2025: DET 12 @ NYY 2
- April 09, 2025: NYY 4 @ DET 3
- April 08, 2025: NYY 0 @ DET 5
- April 07, 2025: NYY 2 @ DET 6
Over/Under Trends
Detroit Tigers’ last 10 games have averaged 10.6 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
New York Yankees’ last 10 games have averaged 9.3 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Despite Detroit Tigers’ recent scoring surge, the Yankees’ superior home record and lineup anchored by Aaron Judge tilt the edge firmly in their direction. With New York Yankees’ ability to convert offensive depth into runs at Yankee Stadium, this is the sharper side to back with confidence.
This sets up cleanly for the New York Yankees to finish on top.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the New York Yankees have produced 2.2 RPG and the Detroit Tigers 7.6. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 9.8 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
Shop the MLB odds at: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, Caesars.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 11, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
