MLB Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays vs Miami Marlins (Friday, August 22 at 07:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | TOR | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -185 | +138 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (-108) | +1.5 (-112) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.6 | 4.6 |
| Record | 74–54 | 60–67 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetRivers, Bovada, Caesars +4 more | ||
More MLB picks: Toronto Blue Jays · Miami Marlins
Toronto enters this interleague matchup against Miami after averaging 5.6 runs per game across its last five, while the Marlins have been at 4.6 over the same span. This scoring pace positions the game firmly above the posted total, setting the tone for a confident MLB prediction. With both clubs showing offensive consistency despite recent uneven win-loss records, the betting edge leans toward the home side’s ability to capitalize on situational value.
Game Time
On tap at Friday, August 22 at 07:10 PM ET inside pitcher-friendly loanDepot Park with controlled scoring.
Odds & Spread Line
- Toronto Blue Jays: -185
- Miami Marlins: +138
Total: 8
- Run Line — Toronto Blue Jays: -1.5 (-108)
- Run Line — Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-112)
Latest Team Records
Toronto Blue Jays: 74-54 (Win %: 0.578)
Miami Marlins: 60-67 (Win %: 0.472)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Toronto Blue Jays
- Bo Bichette: 0.298 AVG, 16 HR, 82 RBI
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 0.298 AVG, 21 HR, 69 RBI
- George Springer: 0.292 AVG, 21 HR, 62 RBI
Miami Marlins
- Kyle Stowers: 0.288 AVG, 25 HR, 73 RBI
- Agustin Ramirez: 0.236 AVG, 18 HR, 56 RBI
- Otto Lopez: 0.24 AVG, 11 HR, 58 RBI
Team Analysis
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays arrive with a 74-54 record and a 2-3 stretch in their last five, showing that despite a strong overall season, their recent rhythm has cooled. A road mark of 32-33 makes clear their inconsistency away from home, where offensive efficiency has not always translated into wins. Bo Bichette has been a steady producer, but the club’s overall scoring profile has leaned on streaky execution in tighter contests.
Over the last ten games, Toronto has gone 6-4 while averaging 4.7 runs, which signals competence but not overwhelming dominance. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has provided reliable run production, yet the team’s road imbalance continues to cap its ceiling in betting markets. George Springer’s contributions keep them dangerous, but the lack of sustained road success makes them vulnerable in this spot against a motivated opponent.
- Batting Average: 0.267
- Total Runs Scored: 625
- Home Runs: 151
- OBP: 0.337
- SLG: 0.428
- OPS: 0.764
- ERA: 4.22
- WHIP: 1.27
Away Record: 32-33 • Home Record: 42-21
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (5.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.7 RPG)
Miami Marlins
Miami sits at 60-67 overall but has shown scoring reliability with 4.6 runs per game across its last five. While the Marlins have won just 2 of those contests, the offense has remained competitive, anchored by Kyle Stowers’ power output. At home, their 29-33 record demonstrates that while results have lagged, the scoring baseline still provides betting value in the right matchup.
Over the last ten, Miami is 3-7, but the 4.5 runs per game pace suggests the lineup continues to generate chances. Agustin Ramirez adds supplemental pop, and Otto Lopez has chipped in with timely run production to balance the order. Their home splits, paired with consistent run scoring, position them as a live underdog against a Toronto side that has not been reliable on the road.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 549
- Home Runs: 124
- OBP: 0.315
- SLG: 0.396
- OPS: 0.711
- ERA: 4.52
- WHIP: 1.3
Away Record: 31-34 • Home Record: 29-33
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (4.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (4.5 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
No recent matchups between these teams in 2025.
Over/Under Trends
Toronto Blue Jays’ last 10 games have averaged 8.4 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
Miami Marlins’ last 10 games have averaged 9.8 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Marlins’ consistent offensive output at home, paired with Toronto’s sub-.500 road record, creates a favorable environment for the home side. Kyle Stowers’ run production has been a stabilizing force, and the lineup overall has matched Toronto’s recent scoring pace despite fewer wins. Factoring in venue dynamics and Toronto’s uneven travel form, the Miami Marlins are the sharper moneyline play.
Mismatch vs perception: the Miami Marlins at +138 are the sharper angle.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Miami Marlins at 4.6 RPG and the Toronto Blue Jays at 5.6, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 10.2 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Over 8.0.
Bookmakers
You’ll find these markets at: Fanatics, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
