More EPL picks: Wolverhampton Wanderers · Newcastle United

Introduction

With both clubs averaging 2.0 goals per game through 2 matches, this early-season trend points squarely toward a high-event matchup. Wolverhampton Wanderers have struggled to convert limited chances into results, while Newcastle United’s defensive stability and sharper passing game at home make them the more reliable side. The combination of attacking output and defensive gaps signals this matchup will matchup toward Newcastle while still producing goals above the posted line.

Game Time

Game time: Saturday, September 13 at 02:00 PM ET at St James’ Park.

Odds

• Wolverhampton Wanderers: +600
• Newcastle United: -260

Total: 2.5

Handicap — Wolverhampton Wanderers: +1.5 (-117)
Handicap — Newcastle United: -1.5 (+106)

Latest Team Records

Wolverhampton Wanderers: 0-0-3 (Win %: 0.000 )
Newcastle United: 0-2-1 (Win %: 0.000 )

Lineups

No confirmed lineups yet.

Team Analysis

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Wolves have managed just two goals despite firing 17 total shots, a sign that their attack is not creating high-percentage opportunities. Their efficiency is modest at 11.8% conversion, and with over 72 passes required per shot, the buildup play has been too slow to break down defenses. Against a Newcastle side that thrives on home control, this inefficiency leaves Wolves chasing the game.

Recent form underscores the problem: three straight losses with an average of 2.0 goals per game conceded across the last five and ten match samples. Their home record of 0-0-2 reflects the inability to protect their own ground, and disciplinary lapses with five yellow cards add further instability. This trajectory points to Wolves being vulnerable to a Newcastle attack that will look to exploit defensive gaps and sustain pressure.

• Goals: 2
• Total Shots: 17
• Shots on Target: 8
• Total Passes: 1225
• Yellow Cards: 5
• Offsides: 8
• Shot Conversion: 11.8%
• Passes per Shot: 72.06
• Discipline: Y:5 • R:0 • Off:8

Away Record: 0-0-1 • Home Record: 0-0-2 • Last 5: 0-0-3 (2.0 GPG) • Last 10: 0-0-3 (2.0 GPG)

Newcastle United

Newcastle United’s two clean sheets in three matches highlight a defensive structure that is especially valuable at St James’ Park. With 21 total shots and a conversion rate just under 10%, their attack is not wasteful, and a passes-per-shot ratio of 59.33 shows a more direct and efficient buildup. This balance of defensive reliability and attacking sharpness makes them a clear favorite at home.

Although their record shows two draws and a loss, the 2.0 goals-per-game average across recent matches confirms they are consistently producing chances. Their lone home game has already shown resilience, and with a disciplined profile of only four yellows, they avoid self-inflicted setbacks. In front of their supporters, Newcastle United’s structure and efficiency set them up to dictate terms against a Wolves side still searching for rhythm.

• Goals: 2
• Total Shots: 21
• Shots on Target: 8
• Total Passes: 1246
• Clean Sheets: 2
• Yellow Cards: 4
• Offsides: 1
• Shot Conversion: 9.5%
• Passes per Shot: 59.33
• Discipline: Y:4 • R:0 • Off:1

Home Record: 0-0-1 • Away Record: 0-2-0 • Last 5: 0-2-1 (2.0 GPG) • Last 10: 0-2-1 (2.0 GPG)

Head-to-Head

O/U Trends

Newcastle United’s recent matches have averaged 2.0 total goals and Wolverhampton Wanderers have averaged 2.0. Combined recent output 4.0 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.

Moneyline Prediction

Newcastle United’s home efficiency, defensive stability, and sharper passing game give them the decisive edge over a Wolves side struggling to convert possession into results. With Wolves winless and leaking goals, Newcastle United’s ability to control tempo and create chances ensures they are positioned to secure the victory.

Draw safety: Low — minimal PPG gap.

Match dynamics favor Newcastle United from kick-off to final whistle.

Over/Under Prediction

Newcastle United have produced 2.0 GPG and Wolverhampton Wanderers 2.0 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.

These clubs are combining for 4.0 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5.

Bookmakers

Pricing courtesy of:

• FanDuel
• 1xBet
• Pinnacle

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college athlete.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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