More EPL picks: Tottenham Hotspur · Brighton and Hove Albion

Introduction

Tottenham Hotspur have opened the campaign with a sharp 2.0 goals per game pace across their last four fixtures, a level of efficiency that immediately sets them apart in this matchup. Brighton, meanwhile, are grinding at just 1.3 goals per game, showing clear struggles in turning possession into end product. With the early-season sample still limited but already revealing sharp contrasts in attacking output, this matchup points toward Spurs dictating the tempo and the scoreboard.

Game Time

Game time: Saturday, September 20 at 02:00 PM ET at Amex Stadium.

Odds

• Tottenham Hotspur: +200
• Brighton and Hove Albion: +120

Total: 2.5

Handicap — Tottenham Hotspur: +0.5 (-105)
Handicap — Brighton and Hove Albion: -0.5 (-105)

Latest Team Records

Tottenham Hotspur: 3-0-1 (Win %: 0.750 )
Brighton and Hove Albion: 1-1-2 (Win %: 0.250 )

Lineups

No confirmed lineups yet.

Team Analysis

Tottenham Hotspur

Tottenham Hotspur’s attack has been ruthless in the early going, striking 8 times on just 38 shots, a conversion rate north of 21%. That efficiency, paired with 17 shots on target, signals a side that doesn’t waste opportunities once they arrive in the final third. Their ability to balance high-volume passing with incisive finishing ensures they can break down defenses that sit back, which is critical against a Brighton side that often tries to control tempo at home.

Form-wise, Spurs are riding a 3-0-1 stretch with 2.0 goals per game over both their last five and last ten outings, showing consistency rather than volatility. Three clean sheets in four also highlight defensive stability, making them difficult to chase down once they go ahead. With a perfect away record so far, Tottenham have traveled with confidence, and that blend of clinical finishing and road resilience is exactly why they carry the edge here.

• Goals: 8
• Total Shots: 38
• Shots on Target: 17
• Total Passes: 1853
• Clean Sheets: 3
• Yellow Cards: 7
• Offsides: 7
• Shot Conversion: 21.1%
• Passes per Shot: 48.76
• Discipline: Y:7 • R:0 • Off:7

Away Record: 2-0-0 • Home Record: 1-0-1 • Last 5: 3-0-1 (2.0 GPG) • Last 10: 3-0-1 (2.0 GPG)

Tottenham Hotspur: 38 total shots (season) • 17 on target (season)

Brighton and Hove Albion

Brighton’s home form has been steadier than their road struggles, but even at the Amex they’ve managed just one win in two attempts. Their conversion rate sits below 13%, reflecting difficulty in turning possession into goals despite a respectable 17 shots on target. While they’ve shown patience in buildup with over 1,600 passes, the lack of penetration in the final third has limited their ability to outscore opponents.

Over their last five matches, Brighton’s 1.3 goals per game output underscores the gap between their approach and Spurs’ sharper execution. Discipline has also been a concern, with 12 yellow cards already, which risks disrupting rhythm and inviting pressure. Even in front of their own supporters, this inefficiency leaves them vulnerable against a Tottenham side that is converting chances at a far higher rate and carrying momentum in both directions of play.

• Goals: 4
• Total Shots: 31
• Shots on Target: 17
• Total Passes: 1606
• Yellow Cards: 12
• Hit Woodwork: 2
• Offsides: 10
• Shot Conversion: 12.9%
• Passes per Shot: 51.81
• Discipline: Y:12 • R:0 • Off:10

Home Record: 1-1-0 • Away Record: 0-0-2 • Last 5: 1-1-2 (1.3 GPG) • Last 10: 1-1-2 (1.3 GPG)

Brighton and Hove Albion: 31 total shots (season) • 17 on target (season)

Head-to-Head

O/U Trends

Brighton and Hove Albion’s recent matches have averaged 1.3 total goals and Tottenham Hotspur’s have averaged 2.0. Combined recent output 3.3 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.

Moneyline Prediction

Tottenham Hotspur’s superior conversion rate and consistent 2.0 goals per game pace make them the sharper side to back here. Brighton’s inefficiency in front of goal and disciplinary lapses leave them exposed, while Spurs’ away form and clean sheet record point to a side capable of controlling the match and finishing the job. Tottenham are the pick to claim the win.

Draw safety: Med — low combined PPG; modest ML pricing on both sides.

Numbers back Tottenham Hotspur; the profile is too strong to fade.

Over/Under Prediction

Brighton and Hove Albion have produced 1.3 GPG and Tottenham Hotspur 2.0 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.

These clubs are combining for 3.3 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5.

Bookmakers

Pricing courtesy of:

• FanDuel
• Tipico
• Pinnacle

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college athlete.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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