More EPL picks: Sunderland · Nottingham Forest

Introduction

Sunderland’s 1.5 goals per game across their last five matches highlight a steady attack that has translated into a stronger win rate than Nottingham Forest’s early struggles. With Forest managing just a single win in their first five, the contrast in form is clear even in this early-season sample. Sunderland’s compact defending and sharper conversion rate give them the edge in a matchup that projects to be tight and low scoring.

Game Time

Game time: Saturday, September 27 at 04:30 PM ET at City Ground.

Odds

• Sunderland: +340
• Nottingham Forest: -125

Total: 2.5

Handicap — Sunderland: +0.5 (+104)
Handicap — Nottingham Forest: -0.5 (-114)

Latest Team Records

Sunderland: 2-2-1 (Win %: 0.400 )
Nottingham Forest: 1-2-2 (Win %: 0.200 )

Lineups

No confirmed lineups yet.

Team Analysis

Sunderland

Sunderland have shown a pragmatic balance, scoring six goals from just 36 shots, a conversion rate north of 16% that underscores efficiency in front of goal. Their 1962 passes across five games reflect a patient buildup, but the ability to turn limited shooting volume into goals is what sets them apart. Two clean sheets already reinforce their defensive solidity, a trait that fits well against a Forest side still searching for rhythm.

Form-wise, Sunderland’s 2-2-1 record with 1.5 goals per game across their last five matches signals a consistent trajectory. At home they’ve been especially effective, going unbeaten in three with two wins, while their away record shows resilience despite one defeat. With discipline under control and a structured approach, Sunderland look poised to extend their edge against a struggling opponent.

• Goals: 6
• Total Shots: 36
• Shots on Target: 13
• Total Passes: 1962
• Clean Sheets: 2
• Yellow Cards: 7
• Hit Woodwork: 1
• Offsides: 4
• Shot Conversion: 16.7%
• Passes per Shot: 54.50
• Discipline: Y:7 • R:0 • Off:4

Away Record: 0-1-1 • Home Record: 2-1-0 • Last 5: 2-2-1 (1.5 GPG) • Last 10: 2-2-1 (1.5 GPG)

Sunderland: 36 total shots (season) • 13 on target (season)

Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest’s home record of 1-0-1 shows they can be competitive at City Ground, but their overall win rate of just 20% illustrates the inconsistency plaguing them. Despite producing more total passes than Sunderland, the 71.69 passes per shot ratio points to a slower, less incisive attack. Their shot conversion sits at 14.3%, slightly below Sunderland’s, which highlights a lack of cutting edge in front of goal.

Forest’s recent stretch of 1-2-2 with 1.7 goals per game demonstrates a side that can score but struggles to turn that into results. The defensive lapses are evident with no clean sheets noted, and discipline issues have also cropped up with six offsides and six bookings already. Against Sunderland’s compact defensive style, Forest’s inefficiency in turning possession into goals makes them vulnerable despite the home setting.

• Goals: 5
• Total Shots: 35
• Shots on Target: 18
• Total Passes: 2509
• Yellow Cards: 6
• Hit Woodwork: 2
• Offsides: 6
• Shot Conversion: 14.3%
• Passes per Shot: 71.69
• Discipline: Y:6 • R:0 • Off:6

Home Record: 1-0-1 • Away Record: 0-2-1 • Last 5: 1-2-2 (1.7 GPG) • Last 10: 1-2-2 (1.7 GPG)

Nottingham Forest: 35 total shots (season) • 18 on target (season)

Head-to-Head

O/U Trends

Nottingham Forest’s recent matches have averaged 1.7 total goals and Sunderland’s have averaged 1.5. Combined recent output 3.2 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.

Moneyline Prediction

Sunderland’s sharper finishing, stronger record, and ability to keep matches under control make them the value side here. Nottingham Forest’s possession-heavy but less decisive style has struggled to translate into wins, and Sunderland’s compact defending is well-suited to exploit that. Expect Sunderland to edge this contest and deliver the upset outright.

Draw safety: Low — no clear draw indicators.

Numbers back Sunderland; the profile is too strong to fade.

Over/Under Prediction

Nottingham Forest have produced 1.7 GPG and Sunderland 1.5 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.

These clubs are combining for 3.2 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5.

Bookmakers

Pricing courtesy of:

• FanDuel
• 1xBet
• Pinnacle

Parlamaz earns affiliate commissions from links.

John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college athlete.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

X (Twitter)