More EPL picks: Nottingham Forest · Newcastle United

Introduction

Recent matches show Nottingham Forest and Newcastle United combining for over three goals per game, a clear signal that this fixture leans toward attacking output. Even in an early-season sample, both sides have been open at the back and opportunistic in the final third. That blend of defensive gaps and steady scoring makes this matchup a strong candidate for decisive action rather than a cagey affair.

Game Time

Game time: Sunday, October 5 at 09:00 AM ET at St James’ Park.

Odds

• Nottingham Forest: +410
• Newcastle United: -165

Total: 2.5

Handicap — Nottingham Forest: +1.0 (+103)
Handicap — Newcastle United: -1.0 (-113)

Latest Team Records

Nottingham Forest: 1-2-3 (Win %: 0.167 )
Newcastle United: 1-3-2 (Win %: 0.167 )

Lineups

No confirmed lineups yet.

Team Analysis

Nottingham Forest

Forest have generated 51 total shots with nearly half on target, which signals a willingness to engage offensively despite their modest return of five goals. Their shot conversion rate sits under 10%, a reminder that finishing has been inconsistent. With over 3,000 passes already, the side is building attacks methodically but struggling to convert possession into decisive goals.

In the last five and ten matches, Forest have averaged 1.7 goals per game, pointing to a trend of open contests rather than defensive deadlocks. At home they have managed to collect a win, but their away record remains thin, exposing vulnerabilities on the road. Against a Newcastle side that thrives in front of their supporters, Forest’s inability to shut down games consistently makes them susceptible to conceding multiple goals.

• Goals: 5
• Total Shots: 51
• Shots on Target: 24
• Total Passes: 3090
• Yellow Cards: 10
• Hit Woodwork: 2
• Offsides: 6
• Shot Conversion: 9.8%
• Passes per Shot: 60.59
• Discipline: Y:10 • R:0 • Off:6

Away Record: 0-2-1 • Home Record: 1-0-2 • Last 5: 1-2-3 (1.7 GPG) • Last 10: 1-2-3 (1.7 GPG)

Nottingham Forest: 51 total shots (season) • 24 on target (season)

Newcastle United

Newcastle United’s four goals from 39 shots highlight a slightly better conversion rate than Forest, and their 10.3% efficiency hints at sharper finishing. More importantly, four clean sheets show a defensive structure capable of absorbing pressure, particularly at home. With over 2,300 passes logged, they balance possession with direct attacking intent, a formula that fits well against Forest’s shaky finishing.

At St James’ Park, Newcastle hold a win in three tries, and their last five outings have averaged 1.5 goals per game. While their away form has been poor, the home environment gives them the decisive edge in this matchup. The combination of defensive resilience and steady goal production sets them up to control the tempo and deliver the result expected by the market.

• Goals: 4
• Total Shots: 39
• Shots on Target: 16
• Total Passes: 2363
• Clean Sheets: 4
• Yellow Cards: 8
• Hit Woodwork: 1
• Offsides: 5
• Shot Conversion: 10.3%
• Passes per Shot: 60.59
• Discipline: Y:8 • R:0 • Off:5

Home Record: 1-0-2 • Away Record: 0-3-0 • Last 5: 1-3-2 (1.5 GPG) • Last 10: 1-3-2 (1.5 GPG)

Newcastle United: 39 total shots (season) • 16 on target (season)

Head-to-Head

O/U Trends

Newcastle United’s recent matches have averaged 1.5 total goals and Nottingham Forest’s have averaged 1.7. Combined recent output 3.2 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.

Moneyline Prediction

Newcastle United’s stronger conversion rate, defensive solidity, and home-field advantage make them the clear side to back. Forest’s inability to translate possession into goals leaves them exposed against a team that can punish lapses decisively. Newcastle United’s balance of efficiency and structure supports the pick for a home win.

Draw safety: Low — no clear draw indicators.

Back Newcastle United — form, tempo, and venue point one way.

Over/Under Prediction

Newcastle United have produced 1.5 GPG and Nottingham Forest 1.7 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.

These clubs are combining for 3.2 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5.

Bookmakers

Pricing courtesy of:

• FanDuel
• MyBookie.ag
• Pinnacle

Parlamaz earns affiliate commissions from links.

John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college athlete.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

X (Twitter)