More EPL picks: Nottingham Forest · Burnley

Introduction

Both Nottingham Forest and Burnley are averaging 2.0 goals per game in their recent five-match samples, a signal that this matchup is primed for attacking exchanges. While the early-season sample is still forming, the consistency of output on both sides signals a higher-scoring pattern rather than a cagey affair. With Burnley showing sharper efficiency in their finishing and Forest struggling to convert control into dominance, this matchup points firmly toward an open contest with Burnley carrying the stronger edge.

Game Time

Game time: Saturday, September 20 at 02:00 PM ET at Turf Moor.

Odds

• Nottingham Forest: +120
• Burnley: +240

Total: 2.5

Handicap — Nottingham Forest: -0.5 (-106)
Handicap — Burnley: +0.5 (-104)

Latest Team Records

Nottingham Forest: 1-1-2 (Win %: 0.250 )
Burnley: 1-0-3 (Win %: 0.250 )

Lineups

No confirmed lineups yet.

Team Analysis

Nottingham Forest

Forest have managed four goals from 25 total shots, translating to a conversion rate of 16%, which is solid but not dominant given the volume of possession they hold. With nearly 1,900 passes already, they are averaging over 75 passes for each shot attempt, a sign of heavy buildup that doesn’t always translate into penetration. This slower tempo has left them vulnerable when opponents strike more directly, and that inefficiency looms large against a Burnley side that thrives on maximizing fewer opportunities.

In terms of trajectory, the last five matches show Forest producing 2.0 goals per game, but that hasn’t translated into results, as their 1-1-2 record shows. The home split has been better at 1-0-1, yet the inconsistency in turning possession into wins is clear. Against a side like Burnley that is more ruthless in front of goal, Forest’s tendency to over-elaborate can once again leave them exposed in a match that promises goals.

• Goals: 4
• Total Shots: 25
• Shots on Target: 10
• Total Passes: 1881
• Yellow Cards: 5
• Hit Woodwork: 2
• Offsides: 4
• Shot Conversion: 16.0%
• Passes per Shot: 75.24
• Discipline: Y:5 • R:0 • Off:4

Away Record: 0-1-1 • Home Record: 1-0-1 • Last 5: 1-1-2 (2.0 GPG) • Last 10: 1-1-2 (2.0 GPG)

Nottingham Forest: 25 total shots (season) • 10 on target (season)

Burnley

Burnley’s attack has been efficient, with four goals from 24 shots and a conversion rate slightly above 16%, nearly identical to Forest but achieved with fewer passes per attempt. At just under 49 passes per shot, they play more directly and incisively, which is particularly effective at home where they already hold a 1-0-1 record. The ability to generate quality looks without needing overwhelming possession gives them a tactical edge against Forest’s slower buildup style.

Recent form underscores this approach, with Burnley also averaging 2.0 goals per game over their last five matches despite only one win. That consistency in output, combined with a clean sheet already in the books, shows that they can balance attacking efficiency with defensive stability. At Turf Moor, this blend of direct play and home comfort positions Burnley to capitalize on Forest’s inefficiency and matchup the contest in their favor.

• Goals: 4
• Total Shots: 24
• Shots on Target: 9
• Total Passes: 1174
• Clean Sheets: 1
• Yellow Cards: 5
• Hit Woodwork: 1
• Offsides: 8
• Shot Conversion: 16.7%
• Passes per Shot: 48.92
• Discipline: Y:5 • R:0 • Off:8

Home Record: 1-0-1 • Away Record: 0-0-2 • Last 5: 1-0-3 (2.0 GPG) • Last 10: 1-0-3 (2.0 GPG)

Burnley: 24 total shots (season) • 9 on target (season)

Head-to-Head

O/U Trends

Burnley’s recent matches have averaged 2.0 total goals and Nottingham Forest’s have averaged 2.0. Combined recent output 4.0 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.

Moneyline Prediction

Burnley’s more incisive style and efficiency in front of goal make them the sharper play here. Nottingham Forest’s heavy-possession approach has not translated into reliable results, while Burnley’s directness at home is a decisive edge. Expect Burnley to convert their chances and secure the win.

Draw safety: Med — minimal PPG gap; modest ML pricing on both sides.

Back Burnley — form, tempo, and venue point one way.

Over/Under Prediction

Burnley have produced 2.0 GPG and Nottingham Forest 2.0 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.

These clubs are combining for 4.0 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5.

Bookmakers

Pricing courtesy of:

• FanDuel
• Tipico
• Pinnacle

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college athlete.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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