More EPL picks: Liverpool · Crystal Palace

Introduction

Liverpool’s blistering 3.0 goals per game pace across their last five matches sets a high-scoring tone, while Crystal Palace’s fixtures have leaned tighter at 1.5 GPG. Even in this early-season sample, the contrast in attacking output signals volatility, and that creates a sharp edge for value-seekers. With both sides trending toward goal-heavy outcomes when combined, the setup here is primed for a decisive result rather than a stalemate.

Game Time

Game time: Saturday, September 27 at 02:00 PM ET at Selhurst Park.

Odds

• Liverpool: -120
• Crystal Palace: +290

Total: 2.5

Handicap — Liverpool: -0.5 (-108)
Handicap — Crystal Palace: +0.5 (-103)

Latest Team Records

Liverpool: 5-0-0 (Win %: 1.000 )
Crystal Palace: 2-3-0 (Win %: 0.400 )

Lineups

No confirmed lineups yet.

Team Analysis

Liverpool

Liverpool’s attack has been ruthlessly efficient, converting nearly a quarter of their 47 shots into 11 goals. The volume of passes per shot shows a deliberate buildup, yet the side has still managed to strike with precision. Two clean sheets highlight defensive stability, but the aggressive forward play leaves them open to trading chances in matches that escalate quickly.

Across their last five outings, averaging 3.0 goals per game, Liverpool have leaned heavily on offensive firepower to maintain perfection. That pace is sustainable only if they continue to balance finishing with control, and it creates opportunities for opponents who can counter. Against a side like Palace at Selhurst Park, the intensity of their attacking rhythm can invite the exact type of open contest that undermines their edge.

• Goals: 11
• Total Shots: 47
• Shots on Target: 24
• Total Passes: 2541
• Clean Sheets: 2
• Yellow Cards: 10
• Offsides: 5
• Shot Conversion: 23.4%
• Passes per Shot: 54.06
• Discipline: Y:10 • R:0 • Off:5

Away Record: 2-0-0 • Home Record: 3-0-0 • Last 5: 5-0-0 (3.0 GPG) • Last 10: 5-0-0 (3.0 GPG)

Liverpool: 47 total shots (season) • 24 on target (season)

Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace’s home form has yet to yield a win, but their defensive resilience stands out with three clean sheets already on the board. Even with a modest 14.3% shot conversion rate, the ability to produce 21 shots on target from 42 attempts signals they are creating legitimate opportunities. In front of their own supporters, that defensive backbone and consistent chance creation can matchup tight matches their way.

Over their last five matches, Palace’s 1.5 goals per game mark complements Liverpool’s higher-scoring trend to push totals upward. Their away record is stronger, but that grit translates into confidence when hosting a heavyweight. With discipline levels manageable and a knack for frustrating opponents, Palace have the profile to spring the decisive upset here.

• Goals: 6
• Total Shots: 42
• Shots on Target: 21
• Total Passes: 1825
• Clean Sheets: 3
• Yellow Cards: 13
• Hit Woodwork: 3
• Offsides: 6
• Shot Conversion: 14.3%
• Passes per Shot: 43.45
• Discipline: Y:13 • R:0 • Off:6

Home Record: 0-2-0 • Away Record: 2-1-0 • Last 5: 2-3-0 (1.5 GPG) • Last 10: 2-3-0 (1.5 GPG)

Crystal Palace: 42 total shots (season) • 21 on target (season)

Head-to-Head

O/U Trends

Crystal Palace’s recent matches have averaged 1.5 total goals and Liverpool’s have averaged 3.0. Combined recent output 4.5 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.

Moneyline Prediction

Crystal Palace’s defensive structure and opportunistic finishing style make them the sharper side to back in this matchup. Liverpool’s relentless offense leaves space for counters, and Palace have shown the discipline to exploit those gaps. At a strong plus-money price, the value sits firmly with the home side to deliver the upset.

Draw safety: Low — no clear draw indicators.

Match dynamics favor Crystal Palace from kick-off to final whistle.

Over/Under Prediction

Crystal Palace have produced 1.5 GPG and Liverpool 3.0 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.

These clubs are combining for 4.5 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5.

Bookmakers

Pricing courtesy of:

• FanDuel
• 1xBet
• Pinnacle

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college athlete.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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