More EPL picks: Liverpool · Burnley

Introduction

Liverpool’s blistering 3.5 goals per game through 2 matches highlights their attacking rhythm, but Burnley’s ability to generate 2.0 goals in the same early-season trend signals a more competitive duel than the records suggest. With both sides showing an inclination toward open play, the matchup sets up as a test of efficiency rather than dominance. The matchup projects as a fertile ground for goals, and the underdog has the tools to exploit that openness.

Game Time

Game time: Sunday, September 14 at 01:00 PM ET at Turf Moor.

Odds

• Liverpool: -310
• Burnley: +700

Total: 2.5

Handicap — Liverpool: -1.5 (-110)
Handicap — Burnley: +1.5 (+100)

Latest Team Records

Liverpool: 3-0-0 (Win %: 1.000 )
Burnley: 1-0-2 (Win %: 0.333 )

Lineups

No confirmed lineups yet.

Team Analysis

Liverpool

Liverpool’s attack has been ruthless, converting nearly a third of their shots into goals while piling up 17 shots on target across their first three matches. Their passing structure is deliberate, averaging over 50 passes per shot, which underscores a patient buildup before striking decisively. Even with one clean sheet, the defensive discipline has not matched the offensive firepower, leaving space for opportunistic opponents.

The last-5 and last-10 sample shows consistency at 3.5 goals per game, reflecting a side that thrives on offensive momentum. That level of output is undeniable, yet it also creates a game state where counters and defensive lapses become more likely. Against a side like Burnley, that openness provides the underdog with a viable path to capitalize in transition.

• Goals: 8
• Total Shots: 26
• Shots on Target: 17
• Total Passes: 1369
• Clean Sheets: 1
• Yellow Cards: 6
• Offsides: 3
• Shot Conversion: 30.8%
• Passes per Shot: 52.65
• Discipline: Y:6 • R:0 • Off:3

Away Record: 1-0-0 • Home Record: 2-0-0 • Last 5: 3-0-0 (3.5 GPG) • Last 10: 3-0-0 (3.5 GPG)

Liverpool: 26 total shots (season) • 17 on target (season)

Burnley

Burnley’s home form has been reliable, with their lone victory coming at Turf Moor where their shape and energy are most effective. Their 19% shot conversion rate shows they need fewer chances to find goals compared to raw volume, which is crucial against a side that dominates possession. A clean sheet already on the board reinforces their ability to protect leads when they seize momentum in front of their supporters.

Their last-5 and last-10 averages of 2.0 goals per game underscore a steady offensive floor despite tougher road outings. At home, that production combines with disciplined buildup—nearly 48 passes per shot—to slow the tempo and create higher-quality looks. That balance makes Burnley a dangerous underdog capable of punishing Liverpool’s forward-leaning style.

• Goals: 4
• Total Shots: 21
• Shots on Target: 9
• Total Passes: 1006
• Clean Sheets: 1
• Yellow Cards: 5
• Hit Woodwork: 1
• Offsides: 5
• Shot Conversion: 19.0%
• Passes per Shot: 47.90
• Discipline: Y:5 • R:0 • Off:5

Home Record: 1-0-0 • Away Record: 0-0-2 • Last 5: 1-0-2 (2.0 GPG) • Last 10: 1-0-2 (2.0 GPG)

Burnley: 21 total shots (season) • 9 on target (season)

Head-to-Head

O/U Trends

Burnley’s recent matches have averaged 2.0 total goals and Liverpool’s have averaged 3.5. Combined recent output 5.5 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.

Moneyline Prediction

Burnley carry genuine upset value here, with their home scoring rate and ability to punch above possession making them well-suited to exploit Liverpool’s aggressive shape. Their efficiency in front of goal and proven resilience at Turf Moor matchup this contest away from the odds board expectation. The underdog is the sharper side to back.

Draw safety: Low — no clear draw indicators.

Edge sits with Burnley across form and goal threat.

Over/Under Prediction

Burnley have produced 2.0 GPG and Liverpool 3.5 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.

These clubs are combining for 5.5 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5.

Bookmakers

Pricing courtesy of:

• FanDuel
• William Hill
• Pinnacle

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college athlete.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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