More EPL picks: Fulham · Bournemouth

Introduction

Across their last five league fixtures, Bournemouth have averaged a strong 2.0 goals per game compared to Fulham’s 1.5, a clear indication of superior attacking rhythm. That difference in production is decisive in a matchup where small margins matter, even in this early-season sample. With sharper finishing and greater consistency, Bournemouth project as the side more likely to dictate the flow and outscore their opponents.

Game Time

Game time: Friday, October 3 at 03:00 PM ET at the home ground.

Odds

• Fulham: +310
• Bournemouth: -115

Total: 2.5

Handicap — Fulham: +0.5 (-103)
Handicap — Bournemouth: -0.5 (-107)

Latest Team Records

Fulham: 2-2-2 (Win %: 0.333 )
Bournemouth: 3-2-1 (Win %: 0.500 )

Lineups

No confirmed lineups yet.

Team Analysis

Fulham

Fulham have managed seven goals from 44 total shots, reflecting a conversion rate just under 16% that highlights their need to be efficient in limited opportunities. Their buildup play requires heavy possession, averaging nearly 59 passes per shot, which can slow tempo against teams that press quickly. With only one clean sheet recorded, their defensive frailties leave them vulnerable when opponents sustain pressure.

In terms of form, Fulham’s home record has been respectable at 2-1-0, but their away performances have faltered without a win in three tries. Their last five outings have seen them average 1.5 goals per match, a steady but unspectacular return that signals limited ceiling against sharper attacks. That consistency is not enough to matchup the balance against a Bournemouth side trending upward.

• Goals: 7
• Total Shots: 44
• Shots on Target: 19
• Total Passes: 2578
• Clean Sheets: 1
• Yellow Cards: 15
• Offsides: 12
• Shot Conversion: 15.9%
• Passes per Shot: 58.59
• Discipline: Y:15 • R:0 • Off:12

Away Record: 0-1-2 • Home Record: 2-1-0 • Last 5: 2-2-2 (1.5 GPG) • Last 10: 2-2-2 (1.5 GPG)

Fulham: 44 total shots (season) • 19 on target (season)

Bournemouth

Bournemouth have been more direct in attack, generating 54 shots with 25 on target and converting at nearly 15%. Their quicker approach of just over 45 passes per shot creates more frequent scoring chances, a style that translates well at home where they remain unbeaten. With three clean sheets already, they pair defensive organization with offensive efficiency.

The Cherries’ home record of 2-1-0 underscores their reliability in front of their supporters, where their 2.0 goals per game average sets a confident tone. Their last five and last ten samples both reflect the same output, signaling consistency rather than variance. Against a Fulham team that struggles to impose itself away from home, Bournemouth’s balance and form make them the superior side.

• Goals: 8
• Total Shots: 54
• Shots on Target: 25
• Total Passes: 2442
• Clean Sheets: 3
• Yellow Cards: 16
• Hit Woodwork: 2
• Offsides: 13
• Shot Conversion: 14.8%
• Passes per Shot: 45.22
• Discipline: Y:16 • R:0 • Off:13

Home Record: 2-1-0 • Away Record: 1-1-1 • Last 5: 3-2-1 (2.0 GPG) • Last 10: 3-2-1 (2.0 GPG)

Bournemouth: 54 total shots (season) • 25 on target (season)

Head-to-Head

O/U Trends

Bournemouth’s recent matches have averaged 2.0 total goals and Fulham’s have averaged 1.5. Combined recent output 3.5 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.

Moneyline Prediction

Bournemouth’s blend of sharper finishing, stronger defensive record, and strong home form gives them the clear edge in this matchup. Fulham’s reliance on possession without cutting edge leaves them exposed against a side that thrives on efficiency. Bournemouth hold the value and are projected to take the win.

Draw safety: Low — no clear draw indicators.

Numbers back Bournemouth; the profile is too strong to fade.

Over/Under Prediction

Bournemouth have produced 2.0 GPG and Fulham 1.5 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.

These clubs are combining for 3.5 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5.

Bookmakers

Pricing courtesy of:

• FanDuel
• Tipico
• Pinnacle

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college athlete.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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