EPL Prediction: Everton vs Liverpool (Saturday, September 20 at 11:30 AM ET)
| Market / Trend | EVE | LIV |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +600 | -240 |
| Total (O/U) | 2.5 | |
| Handicap | +1.5 (-117) | -1.5 (+106) |
| Last 5 GPG | 3.0 | 3.5 |
| Record | 2-1-1 | 4-0-0 |
| Lines: FanDuel, Tipico, Pinnacle | ||
More EPL picks: Everton · Liverpool
Introduction
Liverpool’s perfect record through 4 matches underscores a blistering early-season trend, while Everton’s balanced start highlights both promise and vulnerability. The contrast in conversion efficiency and consistency points to Liverpool’s superiority in attack, especially given their sustained scoring rate. With both clubs showing high combined goal averages, this matchup projects as a decisive test of Everton’s defensive resolve against Liverpool’s relentless form.
Game Time
Game time: Saturday, September 20 at 11:30 AM ET at Anfield.
Odds
- Everton: +600
- Liverpool: -240
Total: 2.5
Handicap — Everton: +1.5 (-117)
Handicap — Liverpool: -1.5 (+106)
Latest Team Records
Everton: 2-1-1 (Win %: 0.500 )
Liverpool: 4-0-0 (Win %: 1.000 )
Lineups
No confirmed lineups yet.
Team Analysis
Everton
Everton have managed five goals from 31 total shots, showing a conversion rate that keeps them competitive but not dominant. Their reliance on nearly 48 passes per shot shows a slower buildup, which can stall against high-pressing opponents like Liverpool. While two clean sheets suggest defensive stability, their discipline issues with 10 yellow cards can become costly against a side that punishes mistakes.
Looking at recent form, Everton’s last-5 and last-10 matches both average 3.0 goals per game, signaling that their contests tend to open up regardless of result. Their split record home and away shows balance but not the kind of edge needed to threaten a flawless Liverpool. Against a team thriving on efficiency and pressure, Everton’s trajectory points to a fight to keep pace rather than control the narrative.
- Goals: 5
- Total Shots: 31
- Shots on Target: 10
- Total Passes: 1487
- Clean Sheets: 2
- Yellow Cards: 10
- Hit Woodwork: 1
- Offsides: 5
- Shot Conversion: 16.1%
- Passes per Shot: 47.97
- Discipline: Y:10 • R:0 • Off:5
Away Record: 1-0-1 • Home Record: 1-1-0 • Last 5: 2-1-1 (3.0 GPG) • Last 10: 2-1-1 (3.0 GPG)
Everton: 31 total shots (season) • 10 on target (season)
Liverpool
Liverpool’s nine goals from 41 shots highlight a clinical 22% conversion rate, a sharp contrast to Everton’s efficiency. At Anfield, their ability to combine over 2000 passes with a disciplined press has produced two clean sheets, reinforcing both control and cutting edge. Their home record of 2-0-0 underlines the fortress-like standard that Everton must overcome.
Form is unrelenting, with Liverpool averaging 3.5 goals per game across their last five and ten outings. That consistency, coupled with their balance between attack and Defence, makes them the most reliable side in this matchup. With no losses to date, their trajectory aligns perfectly with the odds that heavily favor them to extend dominance here.
- Goals: 9
- Total Shots: 41
- Shots on Target: 21
- Total Passes: 2066
- Clean Sheets: 2
- Yellow Cards: 8
- Offsides: 4
- Shot Conversion: 22.0%
- Passes per Shot: 50.39
- Discipline: Y:8 • R:0 • Off:4
Home Record: 2-0-0 • Away Record: 2-0-0 • Last 5: 4-0-0 (3.5 GPG) • Last 10: 4-0-0 (3.5 GPG)
Liverpool: 41 total shots (season) • 21 on target (season)
Head-to-Head
These sides haven’t met in 2025 yet; treat H2H as neutral.
O/U Trends
Liverpool’s recent matches have averaged 3.5 total goals and Everton’s have averaged 3.0. Combined recent output 6.5 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.
Moneyline Prediction
Liverpool’s flawless form, superior conversion rate, and dominant home record make them the clear pick over Everton. The Reds’ ability to dictate tempo and finish chances efficiently leaves little room for an upset. Backing Liverpool aligns with both momentum and the market outlook.
Draw safety: Low — no clear draw indicators.
Numbers back Liverpool; the profile is too strong to fade.
Over/Under Prediction
Liverpool have produced 3.5 GPG and Everton 3.0 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.
These clubs are combining for 6.5 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5.
Bookmakers
Pricing courtesy of:
- FanDuel
- Tipico
- Pinnacle
Parlamaz earns affiliate commissions from links.
EPL Predictions FAQ
Quick answers about how we price matches and bet EPL totals.
How big should my bets be?
Use steady units of 1–2% of bankroll. Keep parlays small and focused. Discipline protects long-term ROI.
How often are picks updated?
We update near confirmed lineups, injuries, and big odds moves. Check back close to kickoff for final notes.
How does Parlamaz handicap Everton vs Liverpool?
First, we check the market for openers and moves. Next, we price the match with recent form, last-5 GPG, xG/xGA, home and away splits, and likely XI. We bet only when our price beats the market.
