More EPL picks: Burnley · Aston Villa

Introduction

Burnley and Aston Villa step into this matchup with a combined recent scoring rate of over three goals per game, signaling an open contest. With the early-season sample still developing, both sides have shown tendencies that shape a clear betting picture. Burnley’s defensive lapses contrast with Villa’s stronger home presence, setting the stage for a high-tempo Premier League encounter.

Game Time

Game time: Sunday, October 5 at 09:00 AM ET at Villa Park.

Odds

• Burnley: +500
• Aston Villa: -210

Total: 2.5

Handicap — Burnley: +1.0 (-112)
Handicap — Aston Villa: -1.0 (+102)

Latest Team Records

Burnley: 1-1-4 (Win %: 0.167 )
Aston Villa: 1-3-2 (Win %: 0.167 )

Lineups

No confirmed lineups yet.

Team Analysis

Burnley

Burnley have struggled to sustain attacking pressure, with only six goals from 37 total shots, reflecting a conversion rate that is respectable but not enough to offset defensive frailties. Their passing volume is high, yet the efficiency in creating quality chances remains limited, as shown by the need for nearly fifty passes per shot. With just one clean sheet, their backline continues to leak opportunities that opponents can exploit.

Recent form underlines the same trend: across the last five matches, Burnley have averaged 1.3 goals per game but conceded heavily, limiting their ability to turn possession into results. At home, they have been slightly steadier, splitting results at 1-1-1, but the away record is a complete loss column. This inconsistency leaves them vulnerable against a Villa side that thrives when given space to dictate tempo.

• Goals: 6
• Total Shots: 37
• Shots on Target: 16
• Total Passes: 1820
• Clean Sheets: 1
• Yellow Cards: 9
• Hit Woodwork: 2
• Offsides: 10
• Shot Conversion: 16.2%
• Passes per Shot: 49.19
• Discipline: Y:9 • R:0 • Off:10

Away Record: 0-0-3 • Home Record: 1-1-1 • Last 5: 1-1-4 (1.3 GPG) • Last 10: 1-1-4 (1.3 GPG)

Burnley: 37 total shots (season) • 16 on target (season)

Aston Villa

Aston Villa’s measured, possession-heavy style is reflected in over 2700 passes already, translating to patient buildup but still generating 39 shots. Their conversion rate of just over 10% signals there is room for sharper finishing, yet the ability to create steady looks combined with two clean sheets provides a balanced platform. At Villa Park, that control has translated to a competitive 1-1-1 home record, reinforcing their advantage in this matchup.

Form-wise, Villa’s last five games have produced two goals per outing, a clear edge over Burnley’s output. Even though wins have been limited early, the offensive consistency is more reliable than their opponent’s. That steady scoring rhythm, coupled with a supportive home crowd, positions Villa to dictate terms and overwhelm Burnley’s fragile Defence.

• Goals: 4
• Total Shots: 39
• Shots on Target: 16
• Total Passes: 2762
• Clean Sheets: 2
• Yellow Cards: 10
• Offsides: 9
• Shot Conversion: 10.3%
• Passes per Shot: 70.82
• Discipline: Y:10 • R:0 • Off:9

Home Record: 1-1-1 • Away Record: 0-2-1 • Last 5: 1-3-2 (2.0 GPG) • Last 10: 1-3-2 (2.0 GPG)

Aston Villa: 39 total shots (season) • 16 on target (season)

Head-to-Head

O/U Trends

Aston Villa’s recent matches have averaged 2.0 total goals and Burnley’s have averaged 1.3. Combined recent output 3.3 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.

Moneyline Prediction

Aston Villa’s ability to control possession and maintain a consistent scoring rate makes them the superior side here. Burnley’s defensive vulnerabilities and poor away record leave them exposed against a Villa team that has proven more resilient at home. Expect Villa to capitalize on their tempo and quality to secure the victory.

Draw safety: Low — no clear draw indicators.

Numbers back Aston Villa; the profile is too strong to fade.

Over/Under Prediction

Aston Villa have produced 2.0 GPG and Burnley 1.3 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.

These clubs are combining for 3.3 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5.

Bookmakers

Pricing courtesy of:

• FanDuel
• 1xBet
• Pinnacle

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college athlete.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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