More EPL picks: Bournemouth · Leeds United

Introduction

With Leeds United’s recent matches averaging a high 3.0 goals per game, this matchup with Bournemouth promises attacking intent on both sides. Bournemouth have been more measured at 2.0 GPG, yet the combined offensive pace is well above the posted total, reinforcing an Over outlook. While the early-season sample is still small, the contrast in tempo and finishing efficiency sets up a clear edge for Leeds to exploit.

Game Time

Game time: Saturday, September 27 at 02:00 PM ET at Elland Road.

Odds

• Bournemouth: +140
• Leeds United: +200

Total: 2.5

Handicap — Bournemouth: -0.5 (+109)
Handicap — Leeds United: +0.5 (-120)

Latest Team Records

Bournemouth: 3-1-1 (Win %: 0.600 )
Leeds United: 2-1-2 (Win %: 0.400 )

Lineups

No confirmed lineups yet.

Team Analysis

Bournemouth

Bournemouth have produced six goals from 45 total shots, showing a conversion rate around 13%, which is efficient over a small sample. Their ability to generate consistent attempts is supported by over 1900 passes, but with nearly 43 passes required per shot, their buildup is deliberate rather than direct. That slower tempo has coincided with three clean sheets, giving them defensive balance but leaving them vulnerable against a quicker, high-output attack.

Recent form shows Bournemouth averaging 2.0 goals per match in their last five, which is steady but not overwhelming compared to Leeds’ higher pace. Their home record of 2-1-0 is solid, yet the away split at 1-0-1 reflects some inconsistency when pressed. Against a Leeds side that thrives at Elland Road and pushes tempo, Bournemouth’s measured buildup risks being overrun in transition.

• Goals: 6
• Total Shots: 45
• Shots on Target: 20
• Total Passes: 1933
• Clean Sheets: 3
• Yellow Cards: 14
• Hit Woodwork: 2
• Offsides: 11
• Shot Conversion: 13.3%
• Passes per Shot: 42.96
• Discipline: Y:14 • R:0 • Off:11

Away Record: 1-0-1 • Home Record: 2-1-0 • Last 5: 3-1-1 (2.0 GPG) • Last 10: 3-1-1 (2.0 GPG)

Bournemouth: 45 total shots (season) • 20 on target (season)

Leeds United

Leeds United have been far more explosive in recent outings, hitting 3.0 goals per game across their last five. Despite only 30 total shots and 12 on target, they’ve matched Bournemouth’s 13% conversion, suggesting they maximize chances through direct attacking patterns. Their passing volume is high, but with over 66 passes per shot, the attack is selective—yet when it clicks, it produces decisive moments.

At home, Leeds are unbeaten with a 1-1-0 record, underscoring their ability to control matches at Elland Road. Two clean sheets show they can combine defensive solidity with attacking bursts, creating a balanced profile. With discipline under control and a consistent goal output, Leeds’ current trajectory positions them strongly to outpace Bournemouth in this matchup.

• Goals: 4
• Total Shots: 30
• Shots on Target: 12
• Total Passes: 1989
• Clean Sheets: 2
• Yellow Cards: 6
• Hit Woodwork: 1
• Offsides: 7
• Shot Conversion: 13.3%
• Passes per Shot: 66.30
• Discipline: Y:6 • R:0 • Off:7

Home Record: 1-1-0 • Away Record: 1-0-2 • Last 5: 2-1-2 (3.0 GPG) • Last 10: 2-1-2 (3.0 GPG)

Leeds United: 30 total shots (season) • 12 on target (season)

Head-to-Head

O/U Trends

Leeds United’s recent matches have averaged 3.0 total goals and Bournemouth’s have averaged 2.0. Combined recent output 5.0 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.

Moneyline Prediction

Leeds United’s sharper conversion rate and higher recent scoring pace give them the edge over Bournemouth’s more methodical buildup. Playing at Elland Road strengthens their case, as their home form has been steady and their attack thrives in front of their supporters. The matchup points directly toward Leeds United seizing the initiative and securing the result.

Draw safety: Low — modest ML pricing on both sides.

Leeds United are the right side on balance of chances and recent output.

Over/Under Prediction

Leeds United have produced 3.0 GPG and Bournemouth 2.0 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.

These clubs are combining for 5.0 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5.

Bookmakers

Pricing courtesy of:

• FanDuel
• 1xBet
• Pinnacle

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college athlete.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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