EPL Prediction: Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur (Sunday, October 19 at 09:00 AM ET)
| Market / Trend | AVL | TOT |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +230 | +110 |
| Total (O/U) | 2.5 | |
| Handicap | +0.5 (+102) | -0.5 (-112) |
| Last 5 GPG | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Record | 2-3-2 | 4-2-1 |
| Lines: FanDuel, 1xBet, Pinnacle | ||
More EPL picks: Aston Villa · Tottenham Hotspur
Introduction
Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa collide in an EPL matchup that already shows contrasting efficiency in front of goal. Spurs’ sharper finishing rate and Villa’s willingness to trade chances have driven high combined scoring through a limited sample, giving bettors a clear offensive profile to assess. With both clubs still shaping their identities, the data so far underscores a fixture that rewards attacking intent over caution.
Game Time
Game time: Sunday, October 19 at 09:00 AM ET at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Odds
- Aston Villa: +230
- Tottenham Hotspur: +110
Total: 2.5
Handicap — Aston Villa: +0.5 (+102)
Handicap — Tottenham Hotspur: -0.5 (-112)
Latest Team Records
Aston Villa: 2-3-2 (Win %: 0.286 )
Tottenham Hotspur: 4-2-1 (Win %: 0.571 )
Team Analysis
Aston Villa
Aston Villa’s record of two wins and three losses with two draws reflects a side creating chances but not consistently converting them. Their 11.8% shot conversion from 51 attempts shows that while they reach good positions, finishing remains uneven. With over three thousand passes and nearly sixty-four per shot, Villa favor build-up play yet risk losing tempo against quicker transitions.
Across their last five and ten matches, Aston Villa have averaged two goals per game, signaling stable output but limited defensive control. The two clean sheets hint at structure, though the 13 yellow cards reveal pressure when chasing possession. They can trouble Tottenham through volume, but the sharper finishing edge belongs to the hosts.
- Goals: 6
- Total Shots: 51
- Shots on Target: 23
- Total Passes: 3258
- Clean Sheets: 2
- Yellow Cards: 13
- Offsides: 12
- Shot Conversion: 11.8%
- Passes per Shot: 63.88
- Discipline: Y:13 • R:0 • Off:12
Away Record: 0-2-1 • Home Record: 2-1-1 • Last 5: 2-3-2 (2.0 GPG) • Last 10: 2-3-2 (2.0 GPG)
Aston Villa: 51 total shots (season) • 23 on target (season)
Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham Hotspur’s four wins and two losses with one draw highlight a team translating chances into results. At home they stand at one win, one loss, and one draw, showing a solid but not perfect base. A 21.0% shot conversion from 62 attempts underscores efficiency, and their passing tempo—just over fifty per shot—keeps pressure high on visiting defenses.
Recent form across both five- and ten-match windows shows consistent 1.7 goals per game, a steady platform for attacking reliability. Three clean sheets add defensive balance, allowing their forwards to stay aggressive without overexposure. That blend of control and finishing precision makes Spurs’ home edge decisive against Villa’s slower buildup.
- Goals: 13
- Total Shots: 62
- Shots on Target: 26
- Total Passes: 3148
- Clean Sheets: 3
- Yellow Cards: 15
- Hit Woodwork: 2
- Offsides: 12
- Shot Conversion: 21.0%
- Passes per Shot: 50.77
- Discipline: Y:15 • R:0 • Off:12
Home Record: 1-1-1 • Away Record: 3-1-0 • Last 5: 4-2-1 (1.7 GPG) • Last 10: 4-2-1 (1.7 GPG)
Tottenham Hotspur: 62 total shots (season) • 26 on target (season)
Head-to-Head
These sides haven’t met in 2025 yet; treat H2H as neutral.
O/U Trends
Tottenham Hotspur’s recent matches have averaged 1.7 total goals and Aston Villa’s have averaged 2.0. Combined recent output 3.7 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.
Moneyline Prediction
Tottenham Hotspur’s superior finishing rate and steadier defensive record provide the clearer path to victory. Their home balance of direct attacking and measured buildup contrasts with Villa’s heavier passing rhythm that often slows final-third penetration. Spurs’ efficiency and control matchup this matchup firmly in their favor.
Draw safety: Low — modest ML pricing on both sides.
Edge sits with Tottenham Hotspur across form and goal threat.
Over/Under Prediction
Tottenham Hotspur have produced 1.7 GPG and Aston Villa 2.0 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.
These clubs are combining for 3.7 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5.
Bookmakers
Pricing courtesy of:
- FanDuel
- 1xBet
- Pinnacle
Parlamaz earns affiliate commissions from links.
EPL Predictions FAQ
Quick answers about how we price matches and bet EPL totals.
How big should my bets be?
Use steady units of 1–2% of bankroll. Keep parlays small and focused. Discipline protects long-term ROI.
How does Parlamaz handicap Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur?
First, we check the market for openers and moves. Next, we price the match with recent form, last-5 GPG, xG/xGA, home and away splits, and likely XI. We bet only when our price beats the market.
