More EPL picks: Brighton and Hove Albion · Chelsea

Introduction

Brighton and Hove Albion’s 1.5 goals per game contrasts sharply with Chelsea’s 2.7, creating a clear offensive imbalance that defines this matchup. The early-season trend shows Chelsea converting chances at an efficient rate, while Brighton’s attack has been inconsistent despite steady shot volume. With such a discrepancy in finishing power, this matchup leans toward a high-scoring contest favoring the visitors.

Game Time

Game time: Saturday, September 27 at 02:00 PM ET at Stamford Bridge.

Odds

• Brighton and Hove Albion: +330
• Chelsea: -140

Total: 2.5

Handicap — Brighton and Hove Albion: +1.0 (-113)
Handicap — Chelsea: -1.0 (+102)

Latest Team Records

Brighton and Hove Albion: 1-2-2 (Win %: 0.200 )
Chelsea: 2-2-1 (Win %: 0.400 )

Lineups

No confirmed lineups yet.

Team Analysis

Brighton and Hove Albion

Brighton have scored six goals from 42 shots, translating to a modest conversion rate that underlines their inefficiency in front of goal. While their 21 shots on target show they can generate pressure, the lack of clinical finishing has limited their ability to secure results. Their 1-2-2 record reflects this inconsistency, with only one win to show from five outings.

Recent form signals a side still searching for rhythm, as their last five games averaged just 1.5 goals per contest. At home they’ve been more competitive, but their away record of 0-0-2 highlights vulnerability when traveling. Against a Chelsea team that thrives on efficiency, Brighton’s reliance on volume over precision puts them at a disadvantage.

• Goals: 6
• Total Shots: 42
• Shots on Target: 21
• Total Passes: 1913
• Yellow Cards: 13
• Hit Woodwork: 2
• Offsides: 10
• Shot Conversion: 14.3%
• Passes per Shot: 45.55
• Discipline: Y:13 • R:0 • Off:10

Away Record: 0-0-2 • Home Record: 1-2-0 • Last 5: 1-2-2 (1.5 GPG) • Last 10: 1-2-2 (1.5 GPG)

Brighton and Hove Albion: 42 total shots (season) • 21 on target (season)

Chelsea

Chelsea’s attack has been sharp, with ten goals from just 40 total shots, reflecting an impressive 25% conversion rate. Their ability to turn limited opportunities into goals has driven a stronger 2-2-1 record, and they’ve also managed two clean sheets that balance their offensive edge. At home, a 1-1-0 mark underscores stability in front of their supporters.

With 2.7 goals per game across their last five matches, Chelsea have consistently found ways to put pressure on opponents. Their measured buildup, shown by nearly 69 passes per shot, has created high-quality chances rather than sheer volume. That composure aligns with their favorite status here and points toward another productive outing against Brighton’s shaky Defence.

• Goals: 10
• Total Shots: 40
• Shots on Target: 23
• Total Passes: 2759
• Clean Sheets: 2
• Yellow Cards: 12
• Hit Woodwork: 1
• Offsides: 11
• Shot Conversion: 25.0%
• Passes per Shot: 68.97
• Discipline: Y:12 • R:0 • Off:11

Home Record: 1-1-0 • Away Record: 1-1-1 • Last 5: 2-2-1 (2.7 GPG) • Last 10: 2-2-1 (2.7 GPG)

Chelsea: 40 total shots (season) • 23 on target (season)

Head-to-Head

O/U Trends

Chelsea’s recent matches have averaged 2.7 total goals and Brighton and Hove Albion’s have averaged 1.5. Combined recent output 4.2 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.

Moneyline Prediction

Chelsea’s edge in finishing efficiency and their ability to control tempo at home makes them the clear play. Brighton’s struggles away from home and their inconsistent strike rate leave them vulnerable against a side that maximizes its chances. Expect Chelsea to impose their style and secure the result.

Draw safety: Low — no clear draw indicators.

Match dynamics favor Chelsea from kick-off to final whistle.

Over/Under Prediction

Chelsea have produced 2.7 GPG and Brighton and Hove Albion 1.5 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.

These clubs are combining for 4.2 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5.

Bookmakers

Pricing courtesy of:

• FanDuel
• 1xBet
• Pinnacle

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college athlete.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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