EPL Prediction: Brighton and Hove Albion vs Bournemouth (Saturday, September 13 at 02:00 PM ET)
| Market / Trend | BHA | BOU |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +180 | +140 |
| Total (O/U) | 2.5 | |
| Handicap | +0.5 (-124) | -0.5 (+112) |
| Last 5 GPG | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Record | 1-1-1 | 2-0-1 |
| Lines: Pinnacle | ||
More EPL picks: Brighton and Hove Albion · Bournemouth
Introduction
Through 2 matches, Bournemouth’s sharper finishing edge has been the early-season trend, while Brighton have struggled to convert despite healthy shot volume. The contrasting efficiency between the two sides sets the tone for this matchup, with Bournemouth carrying momentum and Brighton still searching for consistency. Expect a matchup where Bournemouth’s form gives them the upper hand in a game that are positioned to see goals.
Game Time
Game time: Saturday, September 13 at 02:00 PM ET at the home ground.
Odds
- Brighton and Hove Albion: +180
- Bournemouth: +140
Total: 2.5
Handicap — Brighton and Hove Albion: +0.5 (-124)
Handicap — Bournemouth: -0.5 (+112)
Latest Team Records
Brighton and Hove Albion: 1-1-1 (Win %: 0.333 )
Bournemouth: 2-0-1 (Win %: 0.667 )
Lineups
No confirmed lineups yet.
Team Analysis
Brighton and Hove Albion
Brighton have managed just three goals from 27 total shots, a conversion rate that highlights inefficiency in the final third. Their 45 passes per attempt underscores a slower buildup style, which can stall against sides that press effectively. With a win rate of only 33%, the early data signals Brighton are not maximizing possession into meaningful results.
Recent form shows 1.5 goals per game across both the last five and last ten, signaling a stagnant attacking output rather than upward momentum. The home record is slightly steadier, but defensive lapses and discipline issues, with eight yellow cards already, undermine their balance. Against a sharper opponent, Brighton’s inability to finish consistently can prove costly.
- Goals: 3
- Total Shots: 27
- Shots on Target: 15
- Total Passes: 1232
- Yellow Cards: 8
- Hit Woodwork: 2
- Offsides: 10
- Shot Conversion: 11.1%
- Passes per Shot: 45.63
- Discipline: Y:8 • R:0 • Off:10
Away Record: 0-0-1 • Home Record: 1-1-0 • Last 5: 1-1-1 (1.5 GPG) • Last 10: 1-1-1 (1.5 GPG)
Bournemouth
Bournemouth have been more decisive in the attacking third, scoring four times from 31 shots at a conversion rate near 13%. Their quicker attacking rhythm, reflected in fewer passes per shot, makes them more threatening in transition. With two clean sheets already, this side has shown it can manage both ends of the pitch effectively.
Momentum is clear in their averages of two goals per game over the last five and ten matches, well above Brighton’s output. At home, they’ve been perfect, and the balance of efficiency and discipline keeps them in control. Bournemouth’s sharper edge in front of goal and ability to close down opponents sets them up to dictate this contest.
- Goals: 4
- Total Shots: 31
- Shots on Target: 13
- Total Passes: 1042
- Clean Sheets: 2
- Yellow Cards: 8
- Hit Woodwork: 2
- Offsides: 7
- Shot Conversion: 12.9%
- Passes per Shot: 33.61
- Discipline: Y:8 • R:0 • Off:7
Home Record: 1-0-0 • Away Record: 1-0-1 • Last 5: 2-0-1 (2.0 GPG) • Last 10: 2-0-1 (2.0 GPG)
Head-to-Head
These sides haven’t met in 2025 yet; treat H2H as neutral.
O/U Trends
Bournemouth’s recent matches have averaged 2.0 total goals and Brighton and Hove Albion’s have averaged 1.5. Combined recent output 3.5 vs the posted total of 2.5 informs the lean.
Moneyline Prediction
Bournemouth’s sharper conversion rate, defensive stability, and superior win percentage point to them taking control of this matchup. Brighton’s slower buildup and wasteful finishing leave them vulnerable against a side that thrives on efficiency. Bournemouth are the pick to capitalize and secure the result.
Edge sits with Bournemouth across form and goal threat.
Over/Under Prediction
Bournemouth have produced 2.0 GPG and Brighton and Hove Albion 1.5 through 2 matches. That output frames how this total sets up.
These clubs are combining for 3.5 goals recently — measured against the posted total of 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5.
Bookmakers
Pricing courtesy of:
- Pinnacle
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EPL Predictions FAQ
Quick answers about how we price matches and bet EPL totals.
How does Parlamaz handicap Brighton and Hove Albion vs Bournemouth?
First, we check the market for openers and moves. Next, we price the match with recent form, last-5 GPG, xG/xGA, home and away splits, and likely XI. We bet only when our price beats the market.
What’s a sensible price range for Brighton and Hove Albion vs Bournemouth (Sep 13, 2025)?
Each post lists a target 'bet down to' price. If the market moves past it, reduce unit size or pass. Line shopping across books adds easy edge.
How big should my bets be?
Use steady units of 1–2% of bankroll. Keep parlays small and focused. Discipline protects long-term ROI.
