MLB Prediction: New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins (Wednesday, September 17 at 07:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | NYY | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -175 | +145 |
| Total (O/U) | 9.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (-110) | +1.5 (-110) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.6 | 6.2 |
| Record | 83–67 | 66–84 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: New York Yankees · Minnesota Twins
The Yankees enter this matchup analysis with a strong 83-67 record, while the Twins lag at 66-84, highlighting a clear gap in season-long consistency. New York has averaged 4.6 runs per game across its last five, while Minnesota has surged to 6.2, creating a combined pace that positions this contest firmly toward higher scoring. With the Yankees winning three of the last five head-to-head meetings, the edge lies with their deeper lineup and steadier road performance.
Game Time
Taking place at Wednesday, September 17 at 07:40 PM ET inside Target Field, carry is often trimmed.
Odds & Spread Line
- New York Yankees: -175
- Minnesota Twins: +145
Total: 9
- Run Line — New York Yankees: -1.5 (-110)
- Run Line — Minnesota Twins: +1.5 (-110)
Latest Team Records
New York Yankees: 83-67 (Win %: 0.553)
Minnesota Twins: 66-84 (Win %: 0.44)
Injury Report
New York Yankees are missing Oswaldo Cabrera (Ankle), listed as 60-Day-IL.
The Minnesota Twins are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
New York Yankees
- Aaron Judge: 0.325 AVG, 48 HR, 102 RBI
- Cody Bellinger: 0.274 AVG, 28 HR, 93 RBI
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 0.242 AVG, 29 HR, 75 RBI
Minnesota Twins
- Byron Buxton: 0.271 AVG, 31 HR, 76 RBI
- Trevor Larnach: 0.253 AVG, 16 HR, 58 RBI
- Brooks Lee: 0.238 AVG, 15 HR, 60 RBI
Team Analysis
New York Yankees
The Yankees’ 83-67 record reflects a team that has consistently handled business across the season, and their 40-36 road mark shows they can produce away from home. With a 3-2 record over the last five games and 4.6 runs per game during that stretch, the offense is delivering steady production. Aaron Judge anchors this attack, and his presence forces opposing pitchers into high-stress counts that open opportunities for teammates.
Over the last 10 games, New York stands at 6-4 with a 4.2 run average, reinforcing a stable rhythm that bettors can trust. Cody Bellinger adds balance to the lineup with consistent run production, helping sustain rallies when Judge is pitched around. Jazz Chisholm Jr. gives the team depth, ensuring that the Yankees’ scoring threats extend beyond the middle of the order, a critical factor in their strong betting outlook.
- Batting Average: 0.248
- Total Runs Scored: 774
- Home Runs: 254
- OBP: 0.329
- SLG: 0.452
- OPS: 0.781
- ERA: 4.02
- WHIP: 1.27
Away Record: 40-36 • Home Record: 44-31
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.2 RPG)
Minnesota Twins
The Twins’ 66-84 record highlights a season of underperformance, with home form at 37-39 showing little edge at Target Field. Their last five games sit at 2-3, though averaging 6.2 runs per outing, reflecting offensive punch but without corresponding wins. Byron Buxton has been the key driver of this offense, but his production has not translated into consistent team success.
Across the last 10 games, Minnesota is 4-6 with 5.5 runs per game, underscoring a lineup that scores but often fails to support its pitching. Trevor Larnach provides secondary power, yet defensive lapses and unreliable arms inflate the ERA and undo offensive gains. Brooks Lee adds depth, but the lack of sustained winning rhythm makes this team a weaker betting side compared to New York.
- Batting Average: 0.24
- Total Runs Scored: 639
- Home Runs: 179
- OBP: 0.313
- SLG: 0.4
- OPS: 0.713
- ERA: 4.58
- WHIP: 1.33
Away Record: 29-46 • Home Record: 37-39
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (6.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (5.5 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
New York Yankees lead 3–2 (Last 5 games)
- September 16, 2025: NYY 10 @ MIN 9
- September 15, 2025: NYY 0 @ MIN 7
- August 13, 2025: MIN 4 @ NYY 1
- August 12, 2025: MIN 1 @ NYY 9
- August 11, 2025: MIN 2 @ NYY 6
Over/Under Trends
New York Yankees’ last 10 games have averaged 9.8 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.
Minnesota Twins’ last 10 games have averaged 11.5 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 9.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Yankees’ superior season record, steadier road performance, and edge in three of the last five head-to-head meetings make them the stronger side. With Judge, Bellinger, and Chisholm Jr. driving a balanced lineup, New York is positioned to outscore a Twins team that lacks consistent winning rhythm despite recent offensive output.
We’re backing the New York Yankees — the read is consistent across metrics.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Minnesota Twins are at 6.2 RPG and the New York Yankees at 4.6 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 10.8 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 9.0. That points toward the Over 9.0.
Bookmakers
Shop the MLB odds at: BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, BetMGM, BetUS, BetRivers, Fanatics.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 17, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
