MLB Prediction: New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins (Tuesday, September 16 at 07:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | NYY | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -167 | +138 |
| Total (O/U) | 9.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (-105) | +1.5 (-115) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.4 | 5.0 |
| Record | 83–66 | 65–84 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: New York Yankees · Minnesota Twins
The Yankees enter this matchup analysis with a 3-2 mark across their last five games, averaging 4.4 runs per contest, while Minnesota has been at 5.0 RPG in the same span. That recent scoring profile sets the stage for a competitive contest where the Twins’ ability to generate steady offense at home looms large. With both teams splitting the last four head-to-head meetings, this MLB prediction leans toward Minnesota Twins’ consistency in finding timely production and exploiting situational value.
Game Time
On tap at Tuesday, September 16 at 07:40 PM ET inside Target Field, carry is often trimmed.
Odds & Spread Line
- New York Yankees: -167
- Minnesota Twins: +138
Total: 9
- Run Line — New York Yankees: -1.5 (-105)
- Run Line — Minnesota Twins: +1.5 (-115)
Latest Team Records
New York Yankees: 83-66 (Win %: 0.557)
Minnesota Twins: 65-84 (Win %: 0.436)
Injury Report
New York Yankees are missing Clarke Schmidt (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL.
The Minnesota Twins are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
New York Yankees
- Aaron Judge: 0.326 AVG, 48 HR, 102 RBI
- Cody Bellinger: 0.276 AVG, 28 HR, 93 RBI
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 0.244 AVG, 29 HR, 75 RBI
Minnesota Twins
- Byron Buxton: 0.27 AVG, 31 HR, 76 RBI
- Trevor Larnach: 0.252 AVG, 16 HR, 58 RBI
- Brooks Lee: 0.235 AVG, 14 HR, 58 RBI
Team Analysis
New York Yankees
The Yankees have gone 3-2 in their last five games, reflecting a neutral stretch that highlights inconsistency rather than dominance. Their road form sits just above .500, which leaves them vulnerable against teams that can manufacture runs at home. Aaron Judge remains the centerpiece of the lineup, but the offense has lacked sustained rhythm, as shown by the 3.3 RPG average across their last ten contests.
Even with Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm Jr. contributing, the Yankees’ scoring profile has been uneven, failing to build momentum beyond isolated performances. Their inability to consistently generate offense away from home creates a betting edge against them in this matchup. Given the split head-to-head history and Minnesota Twins’ stronger situational outlook, the Yankees enter at risk of being contained in another low-scoring effort.
- Batting Average: 0.249
- Total Runs Scored: 774
- Home Runs: 254
- OBP: 0.329
- SLG: 0.454
- OPS: 0.784
- ERA: 4.0
- WHIP: 1.27
Away Record: 39-36 • Home Record: 44-31
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (3.3 RPG)
Minnesota Twins
The Twins enter with a 2-3 mark over their last five games, but their 5.0 RPG in that stretch demonstrates more consistent scoring than their opponent. Byron Buxton’s production has anchored the lineup, and the club’s ability to generate power at home offsets the challenges of their overall losing record. Their 37-38 home mark points to that they are far more competitive in this setting than their season total suggests.
Trevor Larnach and Brooks Lee have provided reliable secondary contributions, giving the offense balance that has translated into a 4.7 RPG average over the last ten contests. That steadier scoring profile positions Minnesota well against a New York lineup that has been uneven on the road. With their recent 7-0 home win in the head-to-head series, the Twins have the proven formula to control tempo and secure another result in their favor.
- Batting Average: 0.239
- Total Runs Scored: 632
- Home Runs: 178
- OBP: 0.313
- SLG: 0.399
- OPS: 0.712
- ERA: 4.61
- WHIP: 1.33
Away Record: 29-46 • Home Record: 37-38
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (5.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (4.7 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 2–2 (Last 4 games)
- September 15, 2025: NYY 0 @ MIN 7
- August 13, 2025: MIN 4 @ NYY 1
- August 12, 2025: MIN 1 @ NYY 9
- August 11, 2025: MIN 2 @ NYY 6
Over/Under Trends
New York Yankees’ last 10 games have averaged 8.7 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.
Minnesota Twins’ last 10 games have averaged 9.9 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 9.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Minnesota Twins’ home scoring profile and balanced lineup give them the edge over a Yankees team averaging just 3.3 RPG across the last ten contests. With head-to-head evidence of recent dominance, including a 7-0 victory, the Twins’ ability to dictate pace at Target Field makes them the sharper side to back with confidence.
We’re backing the Minnesota Twins at +138 as the value side.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Minnesota Twins are at 5.0 RPG and the New York Yankees at 4.4 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 9.4 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 9.0. That points toward the Over 9.0.
Bookmakers
Odds courtesy of: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, Fanatics, BetUS, BetMGM, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 16, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
