MLB Prediction: New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins (Monday, September 15 at 07:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | NYY | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -200 | +165 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (-110) | +1.5 (-110) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.6 | 4.0 |
| Record | 83–65 | 65–83 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: New York Yankees · Minnesota Twins
The Yankees enter this matchup averaging 4.6 runs across their last five, while the Twins are at 4.0, keeping combined production modest and giving sharp bettors a clear angle for an MLB prediction. New York has been steady but not dominant on the road, whereas Minnesota Twins’ home form, supported by Byron Buxton’s power and Trevor Larnach’s situational hitting, positions them to capitalize. With both teams trending toward contained scoring, the betting edge points directly to Minnesota and the Under.
Game Time
First pitch is set for Monday, September 15 at 07:40 PM ET at Target Field, cooler evening air keeps scoring modest.
Odds & Spread Line
- New York Yankees: -200
- Minnesota Twins: +165
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — New York Yankees: -1.5 (-110)
- Run Line — Minnesota Twins: +1.5 (-110)
Latest Team Records
New York Yankees: 83-65 (Win %: 0.561)
Minnesota Twins: 65-83 (Win %: 0.439)
Injury Report
New York Yankees are missing Anthony Volpe (Shoulder), listed as Day-To-Day; Gerrit Cole (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL.
The Minnesota Twins are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
New York Yankees
- Aaron Judge: 0.325 AVG, 47 HR, 101 RBI
- Cody Bellinger: 0.278 AVG, 28 HR, 93 RBI
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 0.246 AVG, 29 HR, 75 RBI
Minnesota Twins
- Byron Buxton: 0.274 AVG, 31 HR, 76 RBI
- Trevor Larnach: 0.252 AVG, 16 HR, 58 RBI
- Brooks Lee: 0.237 AVG, 14 HR, 58 RBI
Team Analysis
New York Yankees
The Yankees’ 83-65 record shows consistency, but their 39-35 road mark reveals only marginal control away from home. Their last 5 games at 3-2 with 4.6 RPG indicate average offensive rhythm rather than dominance, with Aaron Judge carrying much of the production burden. Cody Bellinger adds balance, yet the team’s reliance on power creates volatility that limits efficiency against disciplined pitching staffs.
Over their last 10 games at 6-4 with 4.1 RPG, the Yankees have been steady but not overwhelming, often struggling to string together extended rallies. Jazz Chisholm Jr. offers athleticism, but inconsistency in situational hitting prevents them from fully capitalizing on scoring opportunities. That combination, paired with only modest road output, leaves them vulnerable in a tightly priced betting market.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 770
- Home Runs: 251
- OBP: 0.33
- SLG: 0.454
- OPS: 0.784
- ERA: 3.98
- WHIP: 1.27
Away Record: 39-35 • Home Record: 44-31
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.1 RPG)
Minnesota Twins
The Twins’ 65-83 record hides the fact that their home mark of 36-38 keeps them competitive in this spot. Their last 5 games at 1-4 with 4.0 RPG reflect struggles, but Byron Buxton’s consistent power presence ensures they remain dangerous in tight contests. Playing at home, where they find more balance, gives them an edge against opponents who rely heavily on road power hitting.
Over their last 10 games at 3-7 with 4.8 RPG, Minnesota has shown flashes of offensive rhythm despite losses. Trevor Larnach’s ability to produce timely contact and Brooks Lee’s contributions in run creation hint at a lineup capable of outperforming expectations. With their pitching staff holding opponents in check at home, the Twins are positioned to exploit New York Yankees’ road inconsistency and secure value.
- Batting Average: 0.24
- Total Runs Scored: 628
- Home Runs: 176
- OBP: 0.313
- SLG: 0.399
- OPS: 0.712
- ERA: 4.6
- WHIP: 1.33
Away Record: 29-46 • Home Record: 36-38
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (4.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (4.8 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
New York Yankees lead 2–1 (Last 3 games)
- August 13, 2025: MIN 4 @ NYY 1
- August 12, 2025: MIN 1 @ NYY 9
- August 11, 2025: MIN 2 @ NYY 6
Over/Under Trends
New York Yankees’ last 10 games have averaged 9.2 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Minnesota Twins’ last 10 games have averaged 11.1 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Minnesota Twins’ home record provides balance, and their recent head-to-head win over New York shows they can suppress the Yankees’ lineup when it matters. With Byron Buxton driving run support and situational hitters like Trevor Larnach adding depth, the Twins’ profile aligns strongly with a moneyline edge in this matchup.
Trend and context support the Minnesota Twins at +165 as the bet.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Minnesota Twins at 4.0 RPG and the New York Yankees at 4.6, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 8.6 runs per game recently — right around the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
Data pulled from: BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, FanDuel, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, BetUS, BetMGM, Bovada, BetRivers, Fanatics.
Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from links in this article.
MLB Predictions FAQ
How does Parlamaz make New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins MLB predictions?
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What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 15, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
