MLB Prediction: New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays (Tuesday, August 19 at 07:35 PM ET)
Introduction
NYY @ TB
NYY -147
TB +123
O/U 8.5
| Market / Trend | NYY | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -147 | +123 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (120) | +1.5 (-140) |
| Last 5 RPG | 6.8 | 3.6 |
| Record | 67-57 | 61-64 |
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Updated Aug 19, 2025 03:25 AM ET • Lines: Consensus |
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More MLB picks: New York Yankees · Tampa Bay Rays
New York has surged with a 4-1 record in its last five, averaging 6.8 runs per game, while Tampa Bay has held steady at 3.6 RPG in the same stretch, setting up an intriguing MLB prediction. The Yankees’ road form has been uneven, but their offense remains potent. Tampa Bay, however, has been efficient at home and leans on balanced production from multiple hitters, making them a dangerous underdog in this matchup.
Game Time
Opening pitch at Tuesday, August 19 at 07:35 PM ET at Tropicana Field, unders find support.
Odds & Spread Line
- New York Yankees: -147
- Tampa Bay Rays: +123
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — New York Yankees: -1.5 (+120)
- Run Line — Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-140)
Latest Team Records
New York Yankees: 67-57 (Win %: 0.54)
Tampa Bay Rays: 61-64 (Win %: 0.488)
Injury Report
New York Yankees are missing Oswaldo Cabrera (Ankle), listed as 60-Day-IL; Ryan Yarbrough (Oblique), listed as 15-Day-IL; Fernando Cruz (Oblique), listed as 15-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.
Tampa Bay Rays are missing Alex Faedo (Shoulder), listed as 60-Day-IL.
Key Player Stats
New York Yankees
- Aaron Judge: 0.333 AVG, 39 HR, 91 RBI
- Cody Bellinger: 0.264 AVG, 22 HR, 71 RBI
- Giancarlo Stanton: 0.299 AVG, 12 HR, 34 RBI
Tampa Bay Rays
- Junior Caminero: 0.258 AVG, 35 HR, 85 RBI
- Yandy Diaz: 0.283 AVG, 20 HR, 71 RBI
- Brandon Lowe: 0.272 AVG, 24 HR, 61 RBI
Team Analysis
New York Yankees
The Yankees enter this contest with a 67-57 record and have found rhythm with a 4-1 stretch in their last five outings. That surge has been powered by Aaron Judge’s consistency in the middle of the order, giving them a reliable offensive anchor. Cody Bellinger has complemented that production, keeping the lineup dangerous even when facing strong pitching. However, their 30-32 road record highlights vulnerability away from home, a factor that weighs heavily against them in this matchup.
New York Yankees’ 7-3 record over the last 10 games spotlights offensive confidence, but Giancarlo Stanton’s contributions have been inconsistent compared to Judge’s dominance. Despite their recent scoring surge, their road splits show that they struggle to maintain the same efficiency outside their home park. Tampa Bay Rays’ pitching profile matches up well against visiting hitters, which makes the Yankees’ hot streak less reliable in this setting. Their numbers signal strength, but situational factors tilt against them on the road.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 636
- Home Runs: 195
- OBP: 0.33
- SLG: 0.446
- OPS: 0.776
- ERA: 4.02
- WHIP: 1.25
Away Record: 30-32 • Home Record: 37-25
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (6.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (5.2 RPG)
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays sit at 61-64 but remain competitive thanks to a balanced lineup that has produced steady results. Junior Caminero’s power has been a critical factor in keeping their offense relevant, while Yandy Diaz has consistently reached base to set up scoring chances. Their 3-2 finish in the last five games shows stability, and a home record of 32-30 reinforces their ability to perform effectively at Tropicana Field. That home edge offsets their overall inconsistency and gives them a sharper betting profile here.
Over the last 10 games, Tampa Bay has gone 5-5 with 3.9 RPG, reflecting a team that stays competitive even when not firing on all cylinders. Brandon Lowe has provided timely production that helps them avoid prolonged slumps, and the pitching staff has kept them within striking distance. At home, the Rays have proven capable of containing even high-powered offenses, which positions them to capitalize against a Yankees lineup that has struggled on the road. This balance makes their underdog status appealing from a betting perspective.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 556
- Home Runs: 137
- OBP: 0.313
- SLG: 0.398
- OPS: 0.711
- ERA: 3.92
- WHIP: 1.21
Away Record: 29-34 • Home Record: 32-30
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (3.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (3.9 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
New York Yankees lead 3–2 (Last 5 games)
- July 31, 2025: TB 4 @ NYY 7
- July 30, 2025: TB 4 @ NYY 5
- July 29, 2025: TB 5 @ NYY 7
- July 28, 2025: TB 4 @ NYY 2
- May 04, 2025: TB 7 @ NYY 5
Over/Under Trends
New York Yankees’ last 10 games have averaged 9.2 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Tampa Bay Rays’ last 10 games have averaged 8.5 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Tampa Bay Rays’ home consistency, combined with balanced run production from Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, and Brandon Lowe, positions them to exploit the Yankees’ weaker road form. New York has been scoring heavily, but their away record shows vulnerability that the Rays’ pitching and situational edge can capitalize on. With proven stability at Tropicana Field, Tampa Bay is the sharper side for this matchup.
Form and matchup create value on the Tampa Bay Rays at +123.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Tampa Bay Rays at 3.6 RPG and the New York Yankees at 6.8, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 10.4 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward a Over 8.5.
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