MLB Prediction: New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles (Sunday, September 21 at 01:35 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | NYY | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -137 | +114 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (122) | +1.5 (-145) |
| Last 5 RPG | 7.0 | 3.2 |
| Record | 87–68 | 73–82 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: New York Yankees · Baltimore Orioles
The Yankees enter this matchup on a 4-1 run over their last five games, averaging 7.0 RPG, but this MLB prediction leans toward Baltimore Orioles’ situational edge. The Orioles have steadied with a 3-2 record in their last five, and their lineup has shown timely production at home. With both teams combining for over 10 runs per game recently, the environment sets up for offense to dictate the result.
Game Time
First pitch comes at Sunday, September 21 at 01:35 PM ET at Camden Yards, warm air can lift carry to the gaps.
Odds & Spread Line
- New York Yankees: -137
- Baltimore Orioles: +114
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — New York Yankees: -1.5 (+122)
- Run Line — Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-145)
Latest Team Records
New York Yankees: 87-68 (Win %: 0.561)
Baltimore Orioles: 73-82 (Win %: 0.471)
Injury Report
The New York Yankees are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Baltimore Orioles are missing Shawn Dubin (Elbow), listed as 15-Day-IL; Colin Selby (Hamstring), listed as 15-Day-IL; Gary Sanchez (Knee), listed as 60-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.
Key Player Stats
New York Yankees
- Aaron Judge: 0.327 AVG, 48 HR, 104 RBI
- Cody Bellinger: 0.271 AVG, 29 HR, 97 RBI
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 0.242 AVG, 30 HR, 77 RBI
Baltimore Orioles
- Gunnar Henderson: 0.276 AVG, 16 HR, 65 RBI
- Jackson Holliday: 0.249 AVG, 17 HR, 55 RBI
- Jordan Westburg: 0.264 AVG, 15 HR, 34 RBI
Team Analysis
New York Yankees
The Yankees’ 7-3 record over their last 10 games highlights a lineup that has been producing consistently, especially with Aaron Judge setting the offensive tone. Cody Bellinger’s ability to drive in runs has complemented Judge’s power, giving the order balance. Their 43-37 road record shows competence away from home, but it hasn’t been dominant.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. has added depth to their attack, but Baltimore Orioles’ pitching staff has shown the ability to contain high-strikeout hitters. While New York has been efficient recently, their reliance on the long ball leaves them vulnerable against teams that can string together contact-heavy innings. That factor becomes critical against an Orioles team that has proven resilient at home.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 803
- Home Runs: 259
- OBP: 0.33
- SLG: 0.454
- OPS: 0.784
- ERA: 4.02
- WHIP: 1.27
Away Record: 43-37 • Home Record: 44-31
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (7.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (5.7 RPG)
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles have steadied their rhythm with a 3-2 stretch in their last five games, averaging 3.2 RPG, which reflects improvement after uneven stretches earlier. Gunnar Henderson’s production has been a key driver, and paired with Jackson Holliday’s contributions, Baltimore Orioles’ lineup has found ways to manufacture runs. Their 37-40 home record shows competitiveness in this setting, making them a live underdog in this spot.
Jordan Westburg adds another layer of offensive reliability, giving the Orioles multiple avenues to pressure opposing pitchers. Their 5-5 record in the last ten shows a neutral trend, but the ability to win tight contests at home strengthens their outlook. With the Yankees leaning heavily on power, Baltimore Orioles’ balanced contact and situational hitting give them the edge here.
- Batting Average: 0.238
- Total Runs Scored: 654
- Home Runs: 181
- OBP: 0.307
- SLG: 0.398
- OPS: 0.704
- ERA: 4.59
- WHIP: 1.37
Away Record: 36-42 • Home Record: 37-40
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (3.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (3.0 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
New York Yankees lead 5–3 (Last 8 games)
- September 20, 2025: NYY 6 @ BAL 1
- September 19, 2025: NYY 2 @ BAL 4
- September 18, 2025: NYY 7 @ BAL 0
- June 22, 2025: BAL 2 @ NYY 4
- June 21, 2025: BAL 0 @ NYY 9
- June 20, 2025: BAL 5 @ NYY 3
- April 30, 2025: NYY 4 @ BAL 5
- April 29, 2025: NYY 15 @ BAL 3
Over/Under Trends
New York Yankees’ last 10 games have averaged 9.6 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Baltimore Orioles’ last 10 games have averaged 7.8 combined runs, with 3 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Baltimore Orioles’ steady home production, combined with Henderson and Holliday driving their offense, makes them a sharper side in this matchup. Against a Yankees team leaning on road power, the Orioles’ ability to grind out runs at Camden Yards positions them as the stronger moneyline play.
Form and matchup create value on the Baltimore Orioles at +114.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Baltimore Orioles have produced 3.2 RPG and the New York Yankees 7.0. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 10.2 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
These lines come from: FanDuel, Fanatics, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, BetMGM, BetUS, BetRivers.
MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 21, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
