MLB Prediction: New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles (Friday, September 19 at 07:05 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | NYY | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -120 | -105 |
| Total (O/U) | 9.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (138) | +1.5 (-160) |
| Last 5 RPG | 6.2 | 3.4 |
| Record | 85–67 | 72–80 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: New York Yankees · Baltimore Orioles
The Yankees enter this matchup with a 3-2 mark in their last five, averaging 6.2 runs per game, while Baltimore has managed just 3.4 in the same span. That scoring split highlights a clear offensive edge for New York and frames this as an MLB prediction leaning toward the visitors. With the Yankees also holding an 85-67 record compared to Baltimore Orioles’ 72-80, the data points directly to New York Yankees’ superior consistency and higher-scoring profile as the decisive factors.
Game Time
On tap at Friday, September 19 at 07:05 PM ET at Camden Yards, warm air can lift carry to the gaps.
Odds & Spread Line
- New York Yankees: -120
- Baltimore Orioles: -105
Total: 9
- Run Line — New York Yankees: -1.5 (+138)
- Run Line — Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-160)
Latest Team Records
New York Yankees: 85-67 (Win %: 0.559)
Baltimore Orioles: 72-80 (Win %: 0.474)
Injury Report
The New York Yankees are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Baltimore Orioles are missing Colin Selby (Hamstring), listed as 15-Day-IL; Gary Sanchez (Knee), listed as 60-Day-IL; Scott Blewett (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.
Key Player Stats
New York Yankees
- Aaron Judge: 0.329 AVG, 48 HR, 103 RBI
- Cody Bellinger: 0.275 AVG, 29 HR, 97 RBI
- Trent Grisham: 0.24 AVG, 33 HR, 71 RBI
Baltimore Orioles
- Gunnar Henderson: 0.274 AVG, 16 HR, 64 RBI
- Jackson Holliday: 0.25 AVG, 17 HR, 55 RBI
- Jordan Westburg: 0.268 AVG, 15 HR, 34 RBI
Team Analysis
New York Yankees
The Yankees’ 85-67 record reflects steady performance, and their recent 3-2 run with 6.2 RPG shows they are producing enough offense to win consistently. On the road, a 42-36 mark confirms they travel well, and that stability gives them a clear edge against a sub-.500 opponent. Aaron Judge’s power presence has been central to keeping their scoring elevated in high-leverage situations.
Over the last 10 games, New York has averaged 5.2 RPG, a mark that spotlights their ability to sustain scoring output even in tighter contests. Cody Bellinger’s balanced production adds depth behind Judge, while Trent Grisham’s contributions help spread out the lineup. With a strong OPS profile and a reliable offense, the Yankees project as the sharper side in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 794
- Home Runs: 258
- OBP: 0.33
- SLG: 0.455
- OPS: 0.785
- ERA: 4.05
- WHIP: 1.27
Away Record: 42-36 • Home Record: 44-31
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (6.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (5.2 RPG)
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore sits at 72-80 and has gone 3-2 in its last five with just 3.4 RPG, signaling inconsistent offensive output. At home, their 36-39 record underlines a lack of reliability, particularly against stronger opponents. Gunnar Henderson’s production gives them a spark, but the lineup has struggled to support him with consistent scoring.
Across their last 10 games, the Orioles have averaged just 3.0 RPG, which spotlights a lack of firepower to keep pace with New York Yankees’ attack. Jackson Holliday has chipped in offensively, but the team’s overall rhythm has been stagnant. Jordan Westburg adds depth, yet the collective numbers suggest Baltimore will have difficulty matching the Yankees’ offensive ceiling.
- Batting Average: 0.239
- Total Runs Scored: 650
- Home Runs: 180
- OBP: 0.307
- SLG: 0.4
- OPS: 0.707
- ERA: 4.59
- WHIP: 1.37
Away Record: 36-42 • Home Record: 36-39
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (3.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (3.0 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
New York Yankees lead 4–3 (Last 7 games)
- September 18, 2025: NYY 7 @ BAL 0
- June 22, 2025: BAL 2 @ NYY 4
- June 21, 2025: BAL 0 @ NYY 9
- June 20, 2025: BAL 5 @ NYY 3
- April 30, 2025: NYY 4 @ BAL 5
- April 29, 2025: NYY 15 @ BAL 3
- April 28, 2025: NYY 3 @ BAL 4
Over/Under Trends
New York Yankees’ last 10 games have averaged 10.9 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.
Baltimore Orioles’ last 10 games have averaged 7.3 combined runs, with 2 games clearing the same number of 9.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Yankees’ superior record, stronger road performance, and consistent run production make them the clear moneyline side against a Baltimore team averaging just 3.0 RPG over its last 10. With Aaron Judge driving the offense and recent head-to-head results favoring New York, the visitors hold the sharper profile to secure another victory.
Markets point to the New York Yankees as the correct angle.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Baltimore Orioles have produced 3.4 RPG and the New York Yankees 6.2. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 9.6 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 9.0. That points toward the Over 9.0.
Bookmakers
Data pulled from: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, BetMGM, BetUS, Bovada, Fanatics, BetRivers.
Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from links in this article.
MLB Predictions FAQ
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
