Introduction

More MLB picks: New York Yankees · Baltimore Orioles

Momentum tilts toward New York entering this matchup analysis, with the Yankees averaging 5.8 runs per game across their last five outings compared to Baltimore Orioles’ 4.2. That offensive pace aligns with their stronger overall record and positions them as the sharper MLB prediction in this contest. With both teams tied 3–3 in their last six head-to-head meetings, the Yankees’ superior consistency and deeper lineup give them the betting edge, while the recent scoring trends lean firmly toward the Over.

Game Time

Opening pitch at Thursday, September 18 at 07:15 PM ET at Camden Yards, warm air can lift carry to the gaps.

Odds & Spread Line

• New York Yankees: -200
• Baltimore Orioles: +174

Total: 8.5

• Run Line — New York Yankees: -1.5 (-130)
• Run Line — Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (+108)

Latest Team Records

New York Yankees: 85-67 (Win %: 0.559)
Baltimore Orioles: 72-80 (Win %: 0.474)

Injury Report

New York Yankees are missing Jonathan Loaisiga (Elbow), listed as 15-Day-IL; Oswaldo Cabrera (Ankle), listed as 60-Day-IL.

Baltimore Orioles are missing Colin Selby (Hamstring), listed as 15-Day-IL; Gary Sanchez (Knee), listed as 60-Day-IL; Scott Blewett (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.

Key Player Stats

New York Yankees

• Aaron Judge: 0.329 AVG, 48 HR, 103 RBI
• Cody Bellinger: 0.275 AVG, 29 HR, 97 RBI
• Trent Grisham: 0.24 AVG, 33 HR, 71 RBI

Baltimore Orioles

• Gunnar Henderson: 0.274 AVG, 16 HR, 64 RBI
• Jackson Holliday: 0.25 AVG, 17 HR, 55 RBI
• Jordan Westburg: 0.268 AVG, 15 HR, 34 RBI

Team Analysis

New York Yankees

The Yankees arrive with an 85-67 record, reflecting a team that has consistently produced across the season. Their last 5 games at 3-2 (5.8 RPG) show a balanced offense that continues to score above league average, with Aaron Judge providing elite production and Cody Bellinger complementing him as a steady run producer. On the road, a 41-36 mark emphasizes their ability to travel well and maintain scoring output regardless of venue.

Recent 10-game form at 6-4 (4.9 RPG) signals a steady rhythm, and Trent Grisham’s power has added another layer to their deep lineup. The Yankees’ 258 home runs on the season highlight their consistent long-ball threat, which plays well against a Baltimore pitching staff that has been vulnerable. Their combination of power, on-base strength, and proven road success makes them the sharper side to back.

• Batting Average: 0.25
• Total Runs Scored: 794
• Home Runs: 258
• OBP: 0.33
• SLG: 0.455
• OPS: 0.785
• ERA: 4.05
• WHIP: 1.27

Away Record: 41-36 • Home Record: 44-31
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (5.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.9 RPG)

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles sit at 72-80, reflecting an uneven season that has lacked sustained momentum. Their last 5 games at 3-2 (4.2 RPG) show competent scoring, but their 10-game sample at 6-4 (3.2 RPG) highlights inconsistency at the plate. Gunnar Henderson has been the most reliable bat, but overall production has not matched stronger American League contenders.

At home, a 36-38 record reveals difficulty in turning Camden Yards into a winning advantage. Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg have provided depth, but the Orioles’ lineup has not consistently pressured opposing pitchers. With a pitching staff allowing significant runs and an offense averaging fewer than four runs per game across the last 10, their margin for error is thin against the Yankees’ power-driven approach.

• Batting Average: 0.239
• Total Runs Scored: 650
• Home Runs: 180
• OBP: 0.307
• SLG: 0.4
• OPS: 0.707
• ERA: 4.59
• WHIP: 1.37

Away Record: 36-42 • Home Record: 36-38
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (3.2 RPG)

Head-to-Head History

Tied 3–3 (Last 6 games)

• June 22, 2025: BAL 2 @ NYY 4
• June 21, 2025: BAL 0 @ NYY 9
• June 20, 2025: BAL 5 @ NYY 3
• April 30, 2025: NYY 4 @ BAL 5
• April 29, 2025: NYY 15 @ BAL 3
• April 28, 2025: NYY 3 @ BAL 4

Over/Under Trends

New York Yankees’ last 10 games have averaged 10.9 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.

Baltimore Orioles’ last 10 games have averaged 7.3 combined runs, with 3 games clearing the same number of 8.5.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

The Yankees’ superior 85-67 record, stronger road form, and recent scoring consistency make them the clear side to back against a Baltimore team still under .500 and struggling for rhythm at home. With Judge anchoring the lineup and balanced production from Bellinger and Grisham, New York Yankees’ offensive ceiling is simply higher, and that gives them the decisive edge in this matchup.

Confidence sits with the New York Yankees based on recent profiles.

Over/Under Prediction

Recent five-game scoring: the Baltimore Orioles are at 4.2 RPG and the New York Yankees at 5.8 — a useful baseline against the total.

These teams are combining for 10.0 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.

Bookmakers

These MLB lines come from: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, Caesars, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, DraftKings, Fanatics.

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to all major league sports—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ World Series run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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