MLB Prediction: New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays — ALDS Game 1 (Saturday, October 4 at 04:05 PM ET)
Introduction
NYY +109
TOR -120
O/U 7.5
| Market / Trend | NYY | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +109 | -120 |
| Total (O/U) | 7.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-200) | -1.5 (170) |
| Last 5 RPG | 3.6 | 5.8 |
| Record | 94–68 | 94–68 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: New York Yankees · Toronto Blue Jays
Series Context
Round: ALDS • Game: 1 • Series Score: 0–0
Home-Field: Toronto hosts at Rogers Centre. Pressure Meter: Opening game leverage often shapes choices for Games 2–3.
The Yankees enter this matchup analysis riding a 4-1 run over their last five while averaging 3.6 RPG, signaling momentum at the right time. Toronto has been producing 5.8 RPG across the same stretch, but their 5-5 mark in the last 10 reveals inconsistency. With both teams locked at 94-68, the sharper edge lies with New York Yankees’ surging form and ability to generate timely offense, making them the superior MLB prediction with value on the road.
Game Time
Scheduled for Saturday, October 4 at 04:05 PM ET inside Rogers Centre; roof and surface add speed.
Odds & Spread Line
- New York Yankees: +109
- Toronto Blue Jays: -120
Total: 7.5
- Run Line — New York Yankees: +1.5 (-200)
- Run Line — Toronto Blue Jays: -1.5 (+170)
Latest Team Records
New York Yankees: 94-68 (Win %: 0.58)
Toronto Blue Jays: 94-68 (Win %: 0.58)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
New York Yankees
- Aaron Judge: 0.331 AVG, 53 HR, 114 RBI
- Cody Bellinger: 0.272 AVG, 29 HR, 98 RBI
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 0.242 AVG, 31 HR, 80 RBI
Toronto Blue Jays
- George Springer: 0.309 AVG, 32 HR, 84 RBI
- Bo Bichette: 0.311 AVG, 18 HR, 94 RBI
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 0.292 AVG, 23 HR, 84 RBI
Team Analysis
New York Yankees
The Yankees’ recent surge is undeniable, with a 4-1 record in their last five and 9-1 over the last ten, backed by 4.9 RPG across that larger sample. Aaron Judge’s presence has been central to their offensive rhythm, consistently pressuring opposing pitchers. Their 44-37 road mark shows they travel effectively, and that profile aligns with current momentum.
Cody Bellinger’s steady production adds depth beyond Judge, while Jazz Chisholm Jr. brings an explosive element that keeps the lineup balanced. The team’s ability to generate runs late in games has been crucial during this stretch, and confidence from recent wins is translating into sharper execution. With the Yankees finding rhythm offensively and proving durable away from home, they enter Toronto with an edge bettors should not ignore.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 849
- Home Runs: 274
- OBP: 0.332
- SLG: 0.455
- OPS: 0.787
- ERA: 3.91
- WHIP: 1.25
Away Record: 44-37 • Home Record: 52-32
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (3.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 9-1 (4.9 RPG)
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays hold a strong 54-27 home record, and their 4-1 stretch in the last five games has come with a heavy 5.8 RPG output. George Springer has been central to that scoring punch, consistently setting the tone at the plate. However, their 5-5 mark over the last 10 shows they’ve lacked the consistency to control games against quality opposition.
Bo Bichette’s contact ability and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s power keep the lineup dangerous, but recent volatility raises concerns. The offense is potent at home, yet defensive lapses have prevented them from fully capitalizing on that production. Against a Yankees team peaking with balance and confidence, Toronto’s uneven rhythm places them at a disadvantage despite the scoring surge.
- Batting Average: 0.265
- Total Runs Scored: 798
- Home Runs: 191
- OBP: 0.333
- SLG: 0.427
- OPS: 0.761
- ERA: 4.19
- WHIP: 1.27
Away Record: 40-41 • Home Record: 54-27
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (5.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.0 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Toronto Blue Jays lead 5–3 (Last 8 games)
- September 07, 2025: TOR 3 @ NYY 4
- September 06, 2025: TOR 1 @ NYY 3
- September 05, 2025: TOR 7 @ NYY 1
- July 23, 2025: NYY 4 @ TOR 8
- July 22, 2025: NYY 5 @ TOR 4
- July 21, 2025: NYY 1 @ TOR 4
- July 03, 2025: NYY 5 @ TOR 8
- July 02, 2025: NYY 9 @ TOR 11
Over/Under Trends
New York Yankees’ last 10 games have averaged 6.9 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.5.
Toronto Blue Jays’ last 10 games have averaged 9.0 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 7.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Yankees’ 9-1 surge over their last 10, paired with a proven 44-37 road record, underlines a team executing efficiently in high-leverage spots. With Aaron Judge anchoring the lineup and complementary contributions from Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York’s balanced attack sets a sturdy baseline against Toronto’s volatility.
Pick: New York Yankees +109 — value-side lean on the road in ALDS Game 1.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Toronto Blue Jays are at 5.8 RPG and the New York Yankees at 3.6 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 9.4 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 7.5. That points toward the Over 7.5.
Bookmakers
You’ll find these markets at: FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics, BetRivers, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, BetUS.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Oct 04, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
