MLB Prediction: New York Yankees vs Houston Astros (Thursday, September 4 at 07:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | NYY | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -137 | +112 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (125) | +1.5 (-145) |
| Last 5 RPG | 6.2 | 3.6 |
| Record | 77–61 | 76–63 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: New York Yankees · Houston Astros
The Yankees enter this MLB prediction with an 8-2 mark over their last 10 games, averaging 7.4 runs, while the Astros have steadied at 5-5 in the same span. That recent surge from New York contrasts with Houston Astros’ steadier pace, but the Astros’ home record and ability to edge out close contests gives them the sharper betting angle. With both lineups producing enough volume to push totals higher, this matchup sets up as a high-scoring environment where Houston Astros’ situational edge matters most.
Game Time
Slated for Thursday, September 4 at 07:40 PM ET inside Minute Maid Park, pull-side power plays up.
Odds & Spread Line
- New York Yankees: -137
- Houston Astros: +112
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — New York Yankees: -1.5 (+125)
- Run Line — Houston Astros: +1.5 (-145)
Latest Team Records
New York Yankees: 77-61 (Win %: 0.558)
Houston Astros: 76-63 (Win %: 0.547)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
New York Yankees
- Aaron Judge: 0.325 AVG, 43 HR, 97 RBI
- Cody Bellinger: 0.279 AVG, 26 HR, 83 RBI
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 0.243 AVG, 28 HR, 70 RBI
Houston Astros
- Jose Altuve: 0.272 AVG, 24 HR, 68 RBI
- Jeremy Pena: 0.304 AVG, 14 HR, 51 RBI
- Christian Walker: 0.235 AVG, 21 HR, 74 RBI
Team Analysis
New York Yankees
The Yankees have surged over their last 10 games with an 8-2 record, producing 7.4 runs per contest, and their offense has leaned heavily on Aaron Judge’s power presence. Cody Bellinger has added balance to the middle of the order, giving this lineup multiple threats that can break games open. Their road record sits just above .500, which tempers expectations compared to their home dominance, but the bats have been keeping them competitive in most environments.
Over the last 5 games, the Yankees are 3-2 with 6.2 runs per game, showing steady scoring but not overwhelming consistency. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has provided complementary production, though the team still requires Judge to anchor momentum in tight contests. With this profile, the Yankees remain dangerous, but their road form and inconsistency in shorter samples leave them vulnerable against a disciplined home side like Houston.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 726
- Home Runs: 236
- OBP: 0.331
- SLG: 0.457
- OPS: 0.788
- ERA: 3.9
- WHIP: 1.25
Away Record: 36-34 • Home Record: 41-28
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (6.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (7.4 RPG)
Houston Astros
The Astros have played to a 5-5 mark over their last 10 games, averaging 3.1 runs, and their ability to grind out results at home has been the stabilizing factor. Jose Altuve’s production at the top of the order continues to set the tone, giving the lineup a dependable spark even when overall scoring dips. Their 43-31 home record underlines why they remain such a tough out in this spot, especially with strong situational play late in games.
In the last 5 games, Houston has gone 2-3 at 3.6 runs per contest, reflecting inconsistency but also the ability to stay competitive against top-tier opponents. Jeremy Pena has emerged as a reliable bat, while Christian Walker’s run production has helped keep them afloat in tight matchups. With the Yankees surging but vulnerable on the road, Houston Astros’ proven home edge and ability to capitalize on timely hitting make them the sharper betting side here.
- Batting Average: 0.252
- Total Runs Scored: 581
- Home Runs: 153
- OBP: 0.318
- SLG: 0.4
- OPS: 0.718
- ERA: 3.84
- WHIP: 1.22
Away Record: 34-32 • Home Record: 43-31
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (3.1 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Houston Astros lead 3–2 (Last 5 games)
- September 03, 2025: NYY 7 @ HOU 8
- September 02, 2025: NYY 7 @ HOU 1
- August 10, 2025: HOU 7 @ NYY 1
- August 09, 2025: HOU 4 @ NYY 5
- August 08, 2025: HOU 5 @ NYY 3
Over/Under Trends
New York Yankees’ last 10 games have averaged 10.5 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Houston Astros’ last 10 games have averaged 6.7 combined runs, with 2 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Houston Astros’ 43-31 home record and 3-2 head-to-head advantage in the last five meetings underline their situational strength, especially in tight contests where timely hitting has carried them. With Jose Altuve and Jeremy Pena generating consistent opportunities, the Astros’ balanced attack at home positions them as the sharper side over a Yankees team that has been more volatile on the road.
We rate the Houston Astros at +112 as the right side at current form.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Houston Astros are at 3.6 RPG and the New York Yankees at 6.2 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 9.8 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
You’ll find these markets at: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, BetMGM, Fanatics, BetUS, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 04, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
