MLB Prediction: New York Yankees vs Houston Astros (Wednesday, September 3 at 08:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | NYY | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -130 | +110 |
| Total (O/U) | 9.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (126) | +1.5 (-149) |
| Last 5 RPG | 6.8 | 2.4 |
| Record | 76–61 | 76–62 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetUS, Bovada +6 more | ||
More MLB picks: New York Yankees · Houston Astros
The Yankees enter this matchup analysis riding a 4-1 surge across their last five games, producing an impressive 6.8 runs per outing during that stretch. Houston has stumbled with just 2.4 runs per game in its last five, exposing offensive inconsistency at a critical point in the season. With New York Yankees’ bats locked in and Houston Astros’ lineup sputtering, this game sets up with a clear betting edge toward the visitors.
Game Time
Taking place at Wednesday, September 3 at 08:10 PM ET inside Minute Maid Park, pull-side power plays up.
Odds & Spread Line
- New York Yankees: -130
- Houston Astros: +110
Total: 9
- Run Line — New York Yankees: -1.5 (+126)
- Run Line — Houston Astros: +1.5 (-149)
Latest Team Records
New York Yankees: 76-61 (Win %: 0.555)
Houston Astros: 76-62 (Win %: 0.551)
Injury Report
New York Yankees are missing Clarke Schmidt (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL.
Houston Astros are missing Ronel Blanco (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL; Hayden Wesneski (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL.
Key Player Stats
New York Yankees
- Aaron Judge: 0.324 AVG, 43 HR, 97 RBI
- Cody Bellinger: 0.279 AVG, 26 HR, 83 RBI
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 0.238 AVG, 26 HR, 67 RBI
Houston Astros
- Jose Altuve: 0.274 AVG, 24 HR, 68 RBI
- Jeremy Pena: 0.307 AVG, 14 HR, 51 RBI
- Christian Walker: 0.235 AVG, 21 HR, 74 RBI
Team Analysis
New York Yankees
The Yankees’ 4-1 record across their last five games and an 8-2 mark across their last ten prove they are playing with rhythm and consistency. Scoring 6.8 runs per game during this stretch speaks to how effectively the lineup is producing, with Aaron Judge driving the surge in power and timely hitting. On the road, a 36-33 record shows they are comfortable away from home, and their recent form suggests confidence will travel here.
Cody Bellinger has provided balance behind Judge, maintaining pressure on opposing arms while Jazz Chisholm Jr. supplies depth that keeps innings alive. With a season total of 233 home runs, this group has the ability to separate games quickly, and their production trends align with their current winning run. The Yankees’ offensive firepower and consistent scoring profile make them the sharper side in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 719
- Home Runs: 233
- OBP: 0.331
- SLG: 0.456
- OPS: 0.787
- ERA: 3.92
- WHIP: 1.26
Away Record: 36-33 • Home Record: 41-28
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (6.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (6.8 RPG)
Houston Astros
The Astros have stumbled across their last five games with a 2-3 record while averaging only 2.4 runs per contest, reflecting a lineup that is not sustaining pressure. Despite Jose Altuve’s steady ability to generate offense, Houston Astros’ broader order has struggled to convert opportunities into runs. Their 42-31 home record is a positive, but the lack of recent scoring momentum raises concerns about their ability to keep pace here.
Jeremy Pena has been the most consistent contact hitter in their lineup, yet the Astros’ inability to string together rallies has left Christian Walker’s power largely isolated. Their last ten games at 5-5 and just 3.2 runs per game further highlight the offensive stagnation. That lack of firepower, even at home, puts them at a disadvantage against a Yankees lineup currently firing on all cylinders.
- Batting Average: 0.253
- Total Runs Scored: 580
- Home Runs: 153
- OBP: 0.319
- SLG: 0.401
- OPS: 0.72
- ERA: 3.82
- WHIP: 1.22
Away Record: 34-32 • Home Record: 42-31
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (2.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (3.2 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 2–2 (Last 4 games)
- September 02, 2025: NYY 7 @ HOU 1
- August 10, 2025: HOU 7 @ NYY 1
- August 09, 2025: HOU 4 @ NYY 5
- August 08, 2025: HOU 5 @ NYY 3
Over/Under Trends
New York Yankees’ last 10 games have averaged 10.3 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.
Houston Astros’ last 10 games have averaged 6.9 combined runs, with 2 games clearing the same number of 9.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Yankees’ 8-2 stretch across their last ten games, paired with a decisive 7-1 victory in the most recent head-to-head, speaks to their current superiority over Houston. With Aaron Judge anchoring a lineup that is consistently producing while the Astros remain stuck under 3.5 runs per game, the sharper play is backing New York to extend its momentum against a struggling opponent.
Form and matchup edges favor the New York Yankees — back them.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Houston Astros at 2.4 RPG and the New York Yankees at 6.8, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 9.2 runs per game recently — right around the posted total of 9.0. That points toward the Over 9.0.
Bookmakers
Shop the MLB odds at: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, BetMGM, BetUS, Bovada, Fanatics.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How does Parlamaz make New York Yankees vs Houston Astros MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
