MLB Prediction: Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees (Thursday, September 25 at 07:05 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | CWS | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +240 | -303 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (118) | -1.5 (-140) |
| Last 5 RPG | 2.4 | 5.2 |
| Record | 58–99 | 89–68 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Chicago White Sox · New York Yankees
The Yankees enter this matchup analysis with commanding momentum, having gone 4-1 in their last five while averaging over five runs per game. In contrast, the White Sox are stuck in a 1-9 spiral across their last 10 outings, managing just 2.4 runs per contest. That stark gap in offensive consistency and recent results sets up a clear MLB prediction favoring New York, with the under firmly in play given Chicago’s scoring slump.
Game Time
Scheduled for Thursday, September 25 at 07:05 PM ET inside Yankee Stadium, left-handed pop plays up.
Odds & Spread Line
- Chicago White Sox: +240
- New York Yankees: -303
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Chicago White Sox: +1.5 (+118)
- Run Line — New York Yankees: -1.5 (-140)
Latest Team Records
Chicago White Sox: 58-99 (Win %: 0.369)
New York Yankees: 89-68 (Win %: 0.567)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Chicago White Sox
- Lenyn Sosa: 0.259 AVG, 21 HR, 72 RBI
- Andrew Benintendi: 0.24 AVG, 20 HR, 63 RBI
- Miguel Vargas: 0.231 AVG, 15 HR, 57 RBI
New York Yankees
- Aaron Judge: 0.328 AVG, 51 HR, 109 RBI
- Cody Bellinger: 0.269 AVG, 29 HR, 97 RBI
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 0.247 AVG, 31 HR, 80 RBI
Team Analysis
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox have collapsed in recent weeks, going 1-4 in their last five and just 1-9 across their last 10 while producing only 2.4 runs per game. That level of output qualifies as a slump, especially on the road where their 25-52 record exposes persistent struggles. Even with Lenyn Sosa providing some power, the rest of the lineup has lacked the consistency to apply pressure against stronger opponents.
Andrew Benintendi has flashed occasional run production, but the lack of sustained rallies has left Chicago in constant catch-up mode. Miguel Vargas has struggled to lift the offense when the team desperately needs secondary contributions, further limiting upside. Given this combination of poor form and weak road splits, the White Sox project as overmatched in this spot.
- Batting Average: 0.232
- Total Runs Scored: 621
- Home Runs: 157
- OBP: 0.301
- SLG: 0.371
- OPS: 0.672
- ERA: 4.25
- WHIP: 1.37
Away Record: 25-52 • Home Record: 33-48
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (2.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 1-9 (2.4 RPG)
New York Yankees
The Yankees are surging at the right time, winning four of their last five and seven of their last 10 while averaging 5.7 runs across that span. Aaron Judge continues to anchor the lineup with elite production, and his presence has elevated the team’s confidence at the plate. Their 46-31 home record further reinforces the edge they carry in this matchup.
Cody Bellinger has added balance to the order, providing steady run-driving ability that complements Judge’s power. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has also chipped in with timely power, giving the Yankees multiple threats who can break open games. With consistent scoring and a strong home split, New York is positioned to control this contest from the opening innings.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 827
- Home Runs: 266
- OBP: 0.332
- SLG: 0.454
- OPS: 0.786
- ERA: 3.94
- WHIP: 1.26
Away Record: 44-37 • Home Record: 46-31
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (5.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (5.7 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
New York Yankees lead 5–1 (Last 6 games)
- September 24, 2025: CHW 1 @ NYY 8
- September 23, 2025: CHW 2 @ NYY 3
- August 31, 2025: NYY 2 @ CHW 3
- August 30, 2025: NYY 5 @ CHW 3
- August 29, 2025: NYY 10 @ CHW 2
- August 28, 2025: NYY 10 @ CHW 4
Over/Under Trends
Chicago White Sox’s last 10 games have averaged 6.9 total runs, with 3 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
New York Yankees’ last 10 games have averaged 9.3 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Yankees’ recent 7-3 run over their last 10, combined with their 46-31 record at home and commanding 5-1 head-to-head edge, makes them the clear side. With Aaron Judge leading a multi-pronged attack and the White Sox stuck in a prolonged slump, New York holds every statistical advantage to extend its dominance.
We’re backing the New York Yankees to handle business.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the New York Yankees have produced 5.2 RPG and the Chicago White Sox 2.4. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 7.6 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Under 8.5.
Bookmakers
Shop the MLB odds at: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, BetMGM, BetUS, Fanatics, Bovada, BetRivers.
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