MLB Prediction: Chicago White Sox vs Washington Nationals (Sunday, September 28 at 03:05 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | CWS | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +100 | -120 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (160) | +1.5 (+164) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.2 | 5.2 |
| Record | 59–102 | 66–95 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Chicago White Sox · Washington Nationals
The White Sox enter this interleague matchup against the Nationals on the back of a 1-4 skid in their last five, averaging just 4.2 runs per game in that stretch, while Washington has been steadier at 5.2 RPG over the same span. This contrast in recent scoring output sets up a clear MLB prediction, with the Nationals’ lineup producing more consistently at home. With both teams combining for 9.4 runs per game recently, the Over also comes into play as the sharper angle on the total.
Game Time
Set for Sunday, September 28 at 03:05 PM ET at Nationals Park, a neutral setting for totals.
Odds & Spread Line
- Chicago White Sox: +100
- Washington Nationals: -120
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Chicago White Sox: -1.5 (+160)
- Run Line — Washington Nationals: +1.5 (+164)
Latest Team Records
Chicago White Sox: 59-102 (Win %: 0.366)
Washington Nationals: 66-95 (Win %: 0.41)
Injury Report
Chicago White Sox are missing Mike Tauchman (Knee), listed as 10-Day-IL; Andrew Benintendi (Achilles), listed as 10-Day-IL; Martin Perez (Shoulder), listed as 15-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.
The Washington Nationals are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Chicago White Sox
- Lenyn Sosa: 0.263 AVG, 22 HR, 75 RBI
- Andrew Benintendi: 0.24 AVG, 20 HR, 63 RBI
- Miguel Vargas: 0.233 AVG, 15 HR, 58 RBI
Washington Nationals
- James Wood: 0.254 AVG, 30 HR, 92 RBI
- CJ Abrams: 0.26 AVG, 19 HR, 60 RBI
- Luis Garcia Jr.: 0.255 AVG, 16 HR, 66 RBI
Team Analysis
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox have stumbled badly, going 1-4 in their last five and 2-8 across their last ten, with inconsistent scoring that continues to undermine their betting appeal. Away from home, the 26-54 record highlights their inability to sustain offense or close out games on the road. Lenyn Sosa has been one of the few reliable contributors, but his production has not been enough to elevate a lineup that too often strands runners.
With Andrew Benintendi sidelined, the offensive depth takes another hit, leaving more pressure on Miguel Vargas to provide timely hits. The lack of rhythm in recent games drives home a team struggling to generate confidence in late-season matchups. Given these factors, the White Sox enter this contest in clear need of a turnaround, but the betting edge remains firmly against them.
- Batting Average: 0.232
- Total Runs Scored: 634
- Home Runs: 160
- OBP: 0.301
- SLG: 0.371
- OPS: 0.672
- ERA: 4.28
- WHIP: 1.37
Away Record: 26-54 • Home Record: 33-48
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 2-8 (3.8 RPG)
Washington Nationals
The Nationals have played closer to competitive form, going 2-3 over their last five with 5.2 RPG, which reflects a more consistent scoring profile than their opponent. James Wood’s power numbers give this lineup a true anchor, and his presence helps create RBI opportunities for others. Their 32-48 home record is not dominant, but the offense has shown more stability in this setting compared to Chicago’s road struggles.
Across the last ten games, Washington Nationals’ 4.4 RPG shows enough balance to lean on multiple contributors, with CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. adding depth to the order. That steadier offensive base positions the Nationals to seize momentum against a White Sox team that has been faltering late. With better recent scoring and the healthier roster, Washington holds the decisive edge in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.243
- Total Runs Scored: 681
- Home Runs: 158
- OBP: 0.305
- SLG: 0.39
- OPS: 0.695
- ERA: 5.33
- WHIP: 1.45
Away Record: 34-47 • Home Record: 32-48
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (5.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (4.4 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 1–1 (Last 2 games)
- September 27, 2025: CHW 5 @ WSH 6
- September 26, 2025: CHW 10 @ WSH 9
Over/Under Trends
Chicago White Sox’s last 10 games have averaged 9.3 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Washington Nationals’ last 10 games have averaged 10.7 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Washington Nationals’ steadier offense, led by James Wood’s production and supplemented by consistent contributions from CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr., gives them the upper hand against a slumping White Sox lineup. With Chicago struggling to score on the road and Washington finding ways to produce at home, the Nationals are the clear moneyline side in this interleague matchup.
Form and matchup edges favor the Washington Nationals — back them.
Over/Under Prediction
Recent five-game scoring: the Washington Nationals are at 5.2 RPG and the Chicago White Sox at 4.2 — a useful baseline against the total.
These teams are combining for 9.4 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
Find these odds at: FanDuel, Fanatics, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, BetRivers, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, BetUS, BetMGM.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 28, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
