MLB Prediction: Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox (Friday, August 22 at 07:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | MIN | CWS |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -139 | +118 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (122) | +1.5 (-145) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.2 | 5.4 |
| Record | 58–69 | 45–82 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Minnesota Twins · Chicago White Sox
Minnesota has dropped 4 of its last 5, averaging only 4.2 runs per game in that stretch, but head-to-head control over Chicago gives them the sharper edge in this MLB prediction. The White Sox have been equally poor at 1-4 across their last 5, though their scoring has been slightly higher. With both lineups still generating above 9 combined runs per contest recently, the offensive environment points toward a high-scoring outcome where Minnesota Twins’ superior roster depth separates them late.
Game Time
Scheduled for Friday, August 22 at 07:40 PM ET inside Guaranteed Rate Field, run creation trends higher.
Odds & Spread Line
- Minnesota Twins: -139
- Chicago White Sox: +118
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+122)
- Run Line — Chicago White Sox: +1.5 (-145)
Latest Team Records
Minnesota Twins: 58-69 (Win %: 0.457)
Chicago White Sox: 45-82 (Win %: 0.354)
Injury Report
Minnesota Twins are missing Christian Vazquez (Shoulder), listed as 10-Day-IL.
The Chicago White Sox are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Minnesota Twins
- Byron Buxton: 0.27 AVG, 25 HR, 61 RBI
- Brooks Lee: 0.249 AVG, 13 HR, 53 RBI
- Trevor Larnach: 0.244 AVG, 16 HR, 50 RBI
Chicago White Sox
- Lenyn Sosa: 0.271 AVG, 17 HR, 55 RBI
- Mike Tauchman: 0.273 AVG, 8 HR, 34 RBI
- Andrew Benintendi: 0.227 AVG, 14 HR, 47 RBI
Team Analysis
Minnesota Twins
The Twins’ 1-4 mark across their last 5 games with 4.2 RPG signals inconsistency, but their season-long production profile remains stronger than Chicago’s. Byron Buxton continues to supply high-end power, and Brooks Lee’s steady contact threat keeps innings alive even when the lineup slumps. Despite their poor away record, Minnesota Twins’ deeper lineup structure has historically handled Chicago’s pitching staff, as reflected in their recent head-to-head dominance.
Trevor Larnach adds another layer of run potential, and that depth matters against a White Sox team vulnerable to giving up crooked innings. The Twins’ 2-8 slide over their last 10 shows struggles, yet their lineup metrics and homer power still exceed Chicago’s. With their road splits under pressure, the head-to-head confidence and offensive ceiling make Minnesota the more reliable side in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.238
- Total Runs Scored: 522
- Home Runs: 146
- OBP: 0.309
- SLG: 0.396
- OPS: 0.705
- ERA: 4.22
- WHIP: 1.28
Away Record: 25-38 • Home Record: 33-31
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 2-8 (3.1 RPG)
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox’s 1-4 record across their last 5 games with 5.4 RPG highlights that while runs are coming, they are not translating to wins. Lenyn Sosa has been a key run-producer, but overall results show an inability to convert scoring into victories. A 26-36 home record lays bare the lack of advantage at Guaranteed Rate Field, reducing confidence in Chicago’s ability to capitalize on recent offensive spurts.
Mike Tauchman’s contact ability and Andrew Benintendi’s run production help keep the offense competitive, yet the team’s 3-7 stretch over the last 10 confirms recurring breakdowns. Even when scoring above 4 runs per game, Chicago’s bullpen and pitching stability falter, which is why their record lags well behind Minnesota Twins’. The lack of consistency at home makes them the weaker betting side in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.231
- Total Runs Scored: 490
- Home Runs: 125
- OBP: 0.301
- SLG: 0.37
- OPS: 0.671
- ERA: 4.18
- WHIP: 1.37
Away Record: 19-46 • Home Record: 26-36
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (5.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (4.4 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Minnesota Twins lead 4–1 (Last 5 games)
- April 24, 2025: CHW 3 @ MIN 0
- April 23, 2025: CHW 3 @ MIN 6
- April 22, 2025: CHW 2 @ MIN 4
- April 02, 2025: MIN 6 @ CHW 1
- April 01, 2025: MIN 8 @ CHW 3
Over/Under Trends
Minnesota Twins’ last 10 games have averaged 8.5 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Chicago White Sox’s last 10 games have averaged 9.3 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Twins’ stronger season record, proven head-to-head edge, and the offensive punch delivered by Byron Buxton and Brooks Lee signal a clear moneyline advantage. Chicago’s inability to convert recent run totals into wins, combined with a losing home record, leaves them exposed against a Minnesota lineup that has consistently handled them. The data points to Minnesota as the sharper side to back with confidence.
This sets up cleanly for the Minnesota Twins to finish on top.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Chicago White Sox at 5.4 RPG and the Minnesota Twins at 4.2, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 9.6 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
Find these odds at: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, BetUS, Bovada, BetMGM, Fanatics, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
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