MLB Prediction: Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies (Friday, September 26 at 06:45 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | MIN | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +144 | -175 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-144) | -1.5 (122) |
| Last 5 RPG | 3.2 | 4.4 |
| Record | 69–90 | 93–65 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, Caesars +5 more | ||
More MLB picks: Minnesota Twins · Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia enters this interleague matchup analysis with a commanding 53-25 home record, a clear indicator of dominance at this venue. Minnesota, by contrast, has stumbled to a 31-47 road mark, further highlighting the gap in consistency between these clubs. With the Twins averaging just 3.2 runs per game across their last five, this MLB prediction points to the Phillies’ superior balance and a lower-scoring tilt that aligns with the Under.
Game Time
Slated for Friday, September 26 at 06:45 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park, a power-friendly setting.
Odds & Spread Line
- Minnesota Twins: +144
- Philadelphia Phillies: -175
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Minnesota Twins: +1.5 (-144)
- Run Line — Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+122)
Latest Team Records
Minnesota Twins: 69-90 (Win %: 0.434)
Philadelphia Phillies: 93-65 (Win %: 0.589)
Injury Report
Minnesota Twins are missing Luke Keaschall (Thumb), listed as 10-Day-IL.
Philadelphia Phillies are missing Max Kepler (Illness), listed as Day-To-Day; Trea Turner (Hamstring), listed as 10-Day-IL; Jordan Romano (Finger), listed as 15-Day-IL; Jose Alvarado (Forearm), listed as 15-Day-IL. No other significant injuries are reported.
Key Player Stats
Minnesota Twins
- Byron Buxton: 0.263 AVG, 32 HR, 78 RBI
- Trevor Larnach: 0.249 AVG, 17 HR, 60 RBI
- Brooks Lee: 0.239 AVG, 16 HR, 64 RBI
Philadelphia Phillies
- Kyle Schwarber: 0.246 AVG, 56 HR, 132 RBI
- Bryce Harper: 0.263 AVG, 27 HR, 75 RBI
- Trea Turner: 0.305 AVG, 15 HR, 69 RBI
Team Analysis
Minnesota Twins
The Twins arrive at this matchup with a 69-90 overall record and a road mark that reflects ongoing struggles away from home. Their recent 3-2 stretch across the last five games has produced just 3.2 runs per outing, underscoring an offense that lacks rhythm. Byron Buxton has been the primary source of power, but the team overall has not generated enough consistent run production to threaten top-tier opponents.
Looking deeper into their 4-6 mark across the last 10 games, the offense has remained inconsistent, averaging under four runs per contest. Trevor Larnach and Brooks Lee have provided occasional sparks, but the lack of sustained rallies has limited their ability to close games on the road. Against a Philadelphia staff that has been efficient at home, Minnesota Twins’ inconsistency points toward another uphill battle.
- Batting Average: 0.239
- Total Runs Scored: 667
- Home Runs: 185
- OBP: 0.311
- SLG: 0.397
- OPS: 0.708
- ERA: 4.65
- WHIP: 1.33
Away Record: 31-47 • Home Record: 38-43
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (3.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (3.9 RPG)
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies hold a commanding 93-65 record with a dominant 53-25 home performance, demonstrating clear control at Citizens Bank Park. Their last five games have produced a 2-3 record with 4.4 runs per game, showing competitive output even when results have been mixed. Kyle Schwarber’s power presence continues to anchor the lineup, forcing pitchers to challenge the rest of the order.
Across their last 10 games, a 5-5 split with 4.8 runs per contest keeps them steady, but their overall home dominance reinforces the betting edge. Bryce Harper has consistently supplied middle-order production, complementing Schwarber’s power threat. Even with Trea Turner unavailable, Philadelphia Phillies’ balance and pitching stability make them the stronger side in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.26
- Total Runs Scored: 772
- Home Runs: 210
- OBP: 0.33
- SLG: 0.435
- OPS: 0.765
- ERA: 3.85
- WHIP: 1.24
Away Record: 41-40 • Home Record: 53-25
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (4.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.8 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
No recent matchups between these teams in 2025.
Over/Under Trends
Minnesota Twins’ last 10 games have averaged 8.6 total runs, with 2 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Philadelphia Phillies’ last 10 games have averaged 9.6 combined runs, with 7 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
With a 93-win season and a dominant 53-25 home record, the Philadelphia Phillies present a clear edge in both form and situational strength. Their balanced lineup led by Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, combined with Minnesota Twins’ poor road output, makes the Phillies the definitive moneyline side to back.
Form and matchup edges favor the Philadelphia Phillies — back them.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Philadelphia Phillies have produced 4.4 RPG and the Minnesota Twins 3.2. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 7.6 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Under 8.5.
Bookmakers
These lines come from: FanDuel, Fanatics, BetRivers, MyBookie.ag, BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, LowVig.ag, DraftKings.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
How does Parlamaz make Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
