MLB Prediction: Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees (Wednesday, September 10 at 07:05 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | DET | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +145 | -179 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-151) | -1.5 (130) |
| Last 5 RPG | 6.6 | 3.6 |
| Record | 83–62 | 80–64 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Detroit Tigers · New York Yankees
Detroit has generated 6.6 runs per game across its last five outings, a scoring rhythm that sets the tone for this MLB prediction against New York. The Tigers’ recent offensive surge contrasts with the Yankees’ 3.6 RPG pace over the same stretch, creating a clear imbalance in current form. With Detroit holding a 3–1 edge in the last four head-to-head meetings, the matchup analysis points to value on the Tigers and a strong lean toward runs piling up above the posted total.
Game Time
First pitch comes at Wednesday, September 10 at 07:05 PM ET inside Yankee Stadium, left-handed pop plays up.
Odds & Spread Line
- Detroit Tigers: +145
- New York Yankees: -179
Total: 8
- Run Line — Detroit Tigers: +1.5 (-151)
- Run Line — New York Yankees: -1.5 (+130)
Latest Team Records
Detroit Tigers: 83-62 (Win %: 0.572)
New York Yankees: 80-64 (Win %: 0.556)
Injury Report
The Detroit Tigers are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
New York Yankees are missing Clarke Schmidt (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL.
Key Player Stats
Detroit Tigers
- Riley Greene: 0.269 AVG, 32 HR, 104 RBI
- Spencer Torkelson: 0.234 AVG, 28 HR, 72 RBI
- Kerry Carpenter: 0.255 AVG, 23 HR, 57 RBI
New York Yankees
- Aaron Judge: 0.321 AVG, 44 HR, 98 RBI
- Cody Bellinger: 0.276 AVG, 28 HR, 89 RBI
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 0.239 AVG, 28 HR, 70 RBI
Team Analysis
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers’ 83-62 record reflects a team that has maintained steady form, and their 3-2 mark over the last five games shows they’re sustaining offensive output at 6.6 RPG. Riley Greene has anchored the lineup all season, and his production has been a spark in keeping scoring consistent. On the road, their 37-33 record demonstrates they’re comfortable away from home and capable of bringing their bats into hostile environments.
Spencer Torkelson’s power has provided depth, while Kerry Carpenter continues adding balance that makes the Tigers’ order difficult to navigate. The group’s 5-5 split in the last ten games at 5.7 RPG shows they are not dependent on streaks but can still generate runs at a reliable clip. For bettors, their ability to sustain offense against quality opponents creates a high-value profile in this matchup.
- Batting Average: 0.25
- Total Runs Scored: 707
- Home Runs: 181
- OBP: 0.319
- SLG: 0.421
- OPS: 0.74
- ERA: 3.88
- WHIP: 1.23
Away Record: 37-33 • Home Record: 46-29
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (6.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (5.7 RPG)
New York Yankees
The Yankees sit at 80-64, with a 43-30 home record, but their last five games have been middling at 3-2 with just 3.6 RPG. Aaron Judge continues to drive their production, but the supporting lineup has lacked consistency to elevate run totals. At home, the Yankees have been competitive, yet their recent offensive pace fails to match Detroit Tigers’ surge.
Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm Jr. provide additional pop, but the unit’s 6-4 record in the last ten games with 4.9 RPG still reflects uneven scoring stretches. Against a Tigers team that has proven capable of stringing together big innings, New York Yankees’ lower recent output is a liability. Their numbers suggest a team that can win but not at the current scoring rate needed to tilt this matchup in their favor.
- Batting Average: 0.248
- Total Runs Scored: 751
- Home Runs: 245
- OBP: 0.329
- SLG: 0.453
- OPS: 0.782
- ERA: 3.97
- WHIP: 1.26
Away Record: 37-34 • Home Record: 43-30
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (3.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.9 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Detroit Tigers lead 3–1 (Last 4 games)
- September 09, 2025: DET 12 @ NYY 2
- April 09, 2025: NYY 4 @ DET 3
- April 08, 2025: NYY 0 @ DET 5
- April 07, 2025: NYY 2 @ DET 6
Over/Under Trends
Detroit Tigers’ last 10 games have averaged 10.2 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
New York Yankees’ last 10 games have averaged 9.3 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Tigers’ stronger run production in recent games, their proven ability to win on the road, and a decisive 3–1 lead in the season series give them the clear betting edge. With Riley Greene setting the tone and Spencer Torkelson providing additional power, Detroit has the lineup balance to outscore New York again.
The Detroit Tigers at +145 fit a live underdog profile on recent numbers.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the New York Yankees have produced 3.6 RPG and the Detroit Tigers 6.6. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 10.2 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Over 8.0.
Bookmakers
These lines come from: FanDuel, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, BetMGM, Fanatics, BetUS, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 10, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
