MLB Prediction: Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox (Saturday, September 27 at 04:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | DET | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +108 | -132 |
| Total (O/U) | 9.0 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-190) | -1.5 (160) |
| Last 5 RPG | 2.4 | 3.8 |
| Record | 86–74 | 88–72 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +6 more | ||
More MLB picks: Detroit Tigers · Boston Red Sox
Boston enters this matchup analysis with a steady 6-4 mark over its last 10, while Detroit has collapsed to 1-9 in that same stretch, averaging just 2.4 runs per game. That contrast in form is decisive for an MLB prediction, as one side is sustaining scoring balance while the other is stuck in an extended slump. With Detroit struggling to generate consistent offense and Boston leveraging recent home stability, the edge is sharpened toward the home club and a lower-scoring outcome.
Game Time
First pitch is set for Saturday, September 27 at 04:10 PM ET inside historic Fenway Park, where the Monster turns liners into doubles.
Odds & Spread Line
- Detroit Tigers: +108
- Boston Red Sox: -132
Total: 9
- Run Line — Detroit Tigers: +1.5 (-190)
- Run Line — Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+160)
Latest Team Records
Detroit Tigers: 86-74 (Win %: 0.537)
Boston Red Sox: 88-72 (Win %: 0.55)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Detroit Tigers
- Riley Greene: 0.26 AVG, 36 HR, 111 RBI
- Spencer Torkelson: 0.242 AVG, 31 HR, 78 RBI
- Kerry Carpenter: 0.252 AVG, 26 HR, 62 RBI
Boston Red Sox
- Trevor Story: 0.265 AVG, 25 HR, 96 RBI
- Jarren Duran: 0.257 AVG, 16 HR, 83 RBI
- Alex Bregman: 0.273 AVG, 18 HR, 62 RBI
Team Analysis
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers’ 1-4 record across their last five games highlights a group trapped in an extended slump. Averaging only 2.4 runs per game during that stretch, their offense lacks the rhythm needed to seriously threaten at Fenway. Riley Greene has been the lone consistent source of power, but his production has not been enough to offset the broader lack of scoring punch.
On the road, Detroit sits just a game above .500, but that balance is undermined by the collapse in recent form. Spencer Torkelson has flashed power across the season, yet the inability to string together run support has left the lineup ineffective. Kerry Carpenter’s contributions are similarly muted in the current context, leaving the Tigers without a steady path to outscore Boston at home.
- Batting Average: 0.247
- Total Runs Scored: 753
- Home Runs: 197
- OBP: 0.316
- SLG: 0.415
- OPS: 0.731
- ERA: 3.96
- WHIP: 1.25
Away Record: 40-39 • Home Record: 46-35
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (2.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 1-9 (2.4 RPG)
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have steadied themselves with a 3-2 record over their last five and 6-4 across their last 10, producing 4.5 runs per game in that larger window. Playing at home has been a clear advantage, as their 47-32 mark in Boston underlines confidence in familiar surroundings. Trevor Story’s run production anchors the lineup, keeping the Red Sox balanced even in tighter contests.
Jarren Duran’s ability to generate consistent at-bats fits well with Alex Bregman’s run-driving presence, giving Boston multiple layers of offense to pressure a struggling Detroit club. With the Tigers stuck in a scoring drought, Boston’s steady home form and multi-player contributions present a decisive edge. The Red Sox are positioned to control tempo and convert their recent consistency into another win.
- Batting Average: 0.255
- Total Runs Scored: 781
- Home Runs: 184
- OBP: 0.324
- SLG: 0.422
- OPS: 0.746
- ERA: 3.72
- WHIP: 1.29
Away Record: 41-40 • Home Record: 47-32
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (3.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.5 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Detroit Tigers lead 3–1 (Last 4 games)
- September 26, 2025: DET 3 @ BOS 4
- May 14, 2025: BOS 5 @ DET 6
- May 13, 2025: BOS 9 @ DET 10
- May 12, 2025: BOS 2 @ DET 14
Over/Under Trends
Detroit Tigers’ last 10 games have averaged 7.6 total runs, with 3 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.
Boston Red Sox’s last 10 games have averaged 8.4 combined runs, with 2 games clearing the same number of 9.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Boston’s stronger 6-4 form across the last 10, paired with a 47-32 home record, decisively outweighs Detroit Tigers’ 1-9 collapse and road mediocrity. With Trevor Story and Alex Bregman producing reliable run support, the Red Sox are simply better positioned to dictate pace against a Tigers lineup averaging just 2.4 runs in its last five.
The Boston Red Sox are the sharp side on form and splits.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Boston Red Sox at 3.8 RPG and the Detroit Tigers at 2.4, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 6.2 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 9.0. That points toward the Under 9.0.
Bookmakers
Lines retrieved from: FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM, MyBookie.ag, DraftKings, Caesars, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, BetUS, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How does Parlamaz make Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox MLB predictions?
We use trusted data feeds and real-time odds to model each matchup. We weight the numbers that move lines—team form, matchup history, injuries, park factors, totals trends, and betting momentum—then compare our price to the market to find value. All signal, no noise. No paywalls.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
