MLB Prediction: Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox (Friday, September 26 at 07:10 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | DET | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +100 | -120 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-198) | -1.5 (167) |
| Last 5 RPG | 2.8 | 4.2 |
| Record | 86–73 | 87–71 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, Caesars +5 more | ||
More MLB picks: Detroit Tigers · Boston Red Sox
Boston enters this matchup analysis with steadier form, having gone 3-2 in their last five while averaging 4.2 runs per game, compared to Detroit Tigers’ 1-4 skid producing just 2.8 RPG. The Tigers’ offense has stalled badly over their last 10, stuck at 2.3 RPG, while the Red Sox have maintained 4.7 RPG across the same span. With Fenway Park favoring disciplined lineups, the Red Sox’s balanced production and current rhythm position them as the sharper side in this MLB prediction.
Game Time
The action begins at Friday, September 26 at 07:10 PM ET inside historic Fenway Park, where the Monster turns liners into doubles.
Odds & Spread Line
- Detroit Tigers: +100
- Boston Red Sox: -120
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Detroit Tigers: +1.5 (-198)
- Run Line — Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+167)
Latest Team Records
Detroit Tigers: 86-73 (Win %: 0.541)
Boston Red Sox: 87-71 (Win %: 0.551)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Detroit Tigers
- Riley Greene: 0.261 AVG, 35 HR, 110 RBI
- Spencer Torkelson: 0.241 AVG, 31 HR, 78 RBI
- Kerry Carpenter: 0.253 AVG, 26 HR, 62 RBI
Boston Red Sox
- Trevor Story: 0.267 AVG, 25 HR, 95 RBI
- Jarren Duran: 0.257 AVG, 16 HR, 82 RBI
- Alex Bregman: 0.275 AVG, 18 HR, 62 RBI
Team Analysis
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers’ season record reflects competitive capability, but their most recent stretch has exposed glaring offensive issues. With a 1-4 mark in their last five games and just 2.8 RPG across that span, they’ve shown little consistency at the plate. Riley Greene remains the centerpiece of their lineup, yet even his production has not been enough to offset the broader slump.
Detroit Tigers’ road form at 40-38 is serviceable, but the lack of scoring rhythm has neutralized that advantage. Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter add power, but the inability to string together timely hits has left the Tigers stranded offensively. Against a Boston team thriving at home, Detroit Tigers’ current slump makes them vulnerable in this spot.
- Batting Average: 0.247
- Total Runs Scored: 746
- Home Runs: 194
- OBP: 0.316
- SLG: 0.415
- OPS: 0.731
- ERA: 3.97
- WHIP: 1.25
Away Record: 40-38 • Home Record: 46-35
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (2.8 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 2-8 (2.3 RPG)
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have maintained winning rhythm with a 3-2 record over their last five and 6-4 across their last 10, supported by steady run production. At 4.7 RPG in that 10-game sample, they’ve displayed balance across the order, with Trevor Story anchoring the middle lineup presence. Their ability to sustain offense at Fenway has been a decisive edge all season.
Boston’s home form of 46-32 reveals their comfort in this setting, where Jarren Duran’s speed and Alex Bregman’s contact skills have consistently pressured opposing pitchers. The pitching staff’s 3.73 ERA complements that offensive profile, allowing the Red Sox to control games with stability. With Detroit slumping, Boston’s combination of consistency and home-field confidence makes them the superior side here.
- Batting Average: 0.255
- Total Runs Scored: 776
- Home Runs: 184
- OBP: 0.325
- SLG: 0.423
- OPS: 0.748
- ERA: 3.73
- WHIP: 1.28
Away Record: 41-40 • Home Record: 46-32
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (4.7 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Detroit Tigers lead 3–0 (Last 3 games)
- May 14, 2025: BOS 5 @ DET 6
- May 13, 2025: BOS 9 @ DET 10
- May 12, 2025: BOS 2 @ DET 14
Over/Under Trends
Detroit Tigers’ last 10 games have averaged 7.1 total runs, with 3 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
Boston Red Sox’s last 10 games have averaged 8.7 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Red Sox’s combination of steady 4.7 RPG output over their last 10 and a 46-32 home record gives them a decisive edge over a Tigers lineup averaging only 2.3 RPG in that same span. With Trevor Story and Alex Bregman providing reliable production, Boston’s consistency at Fenway makes them the superior moneyline side.
Markets point to the Boston Red Sox as the correct angle.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Boston Red Sox have produced 4.2 RPG and the Detroit Tigers 2.8. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 7.0 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Under 8.5.
Bookmakers
Find these odds at: FanDuel, BetRivers, MyBookie.ag, Fanatics, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, LowVig.ag, DraftKings, BetMGM.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 26, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
