MLB Prediction: Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians (Wednesday, September 24 at 06:40 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | DET | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +102 | -122 |
| Total (O/U) | 7.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-200) | -1.5 (166) |
| Last 5 RPG | 2.2 | 5.4 |
| Record | 85–72 | 85–72 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Detroit Tigers · Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland has surged with a 9-1 record in its last 10 games, while Detroit has collapsed to 1-9 in that same span, setting the tone for this MLB prediction. The Tigers’ offense has been stagnant, producing just 2.2 runs per game in their last five, while the Guardians are averaging 5.4. That contrast in scoring efficiency and form makes the Guardians the clear side, with the lower combined run output reinforcing value on the Under.
Game Time
On tap at Wednesday, September 24 at 06:40 PM ET inside Progressive Field, weather and wind shape scoring.
Odds & Spread Line
- Detroit Tigers: +102
- Cleveland Guardians: -122
Total: 7.5
- Run Line — Detroit Tigers: +1.5 (-200)
- Run Line — Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 (+166)
Latest Team Records
Detroit Tigers: 85-72 (Win %: 0.541)
Cleveland Guardians: 85-72 (Win %: 0.541)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Detroit Tigers
- Riley Greene: 0.259 AVG, 34 HR, 109 RBI
- Spencer Torkelson: 0.243 AVG, 31 HR, 78 RBI
- Kerry Carpenter: 0.255 AVG, 26 HR, 62 RBI
Cleveland Guardians
- Jose Ramirez: 0.282 AVG, 30 HR, 81 RBI
- Kyle Manzardo: 0.236 AVG, 26 HR, 68 RBI
- Steven Kwan: 0.276 AVG, 11 HR, 55 RBI
Team Analysis
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers’ recent slump is undeniable, with a 0-5 record in their last five and only 2.2 runs per game across that stretch. On the road they’ve been serviceable overall, but their current offensive collapse overshadows any long-term balance. Riley Greene remains a power threat, yet the lineup’s inability to string together production has them stuck in neutral.
Over their last 10, Detroit is just 1-9 while scoring 2.4 runs per game, exposing the lack of consistency from their supporting bats. Spencer Torkelson’s power numbers haven’t translated into runs during this stretch, underscoring the team’s situational hitting issues. Kerry Carpenter has shown flashes, but the Tigers’ collective form is too weak to trust in this spot.
- Batting Average: 0.248
- Total Runs Scored: 743
- Home Runs: 193
- OBP: 0.317
- SLG: 0.417
- OPS: 0.734
- ERA: 3.98
- WHIP: 1.25
Away Record: 39-37 • Home Record: 46-35
Last 5 Games: 0-5 (2.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 1-9 (2.4 RPG)
Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians have surged at the right time, going 4-1 in their last five and averaging 5.4 runs per game. Their home record of 42-34 reinforces their ability to control games in this venue, with Jose Ramirez leading an offense that has found rhythm. That balance between consistent hitting and a steady staff puts them in prime position against a struggling opponent.
Across their last 10 games, Cleveland is 9-1 with a 4.7 run average, showing sustained offensive output. Kyle Manzardo has supplied timely power, while Steven Kwan’s ability to get on base has kept pressure on opposing pitchers. With this level of consistency, the Guardians’ lineup is simply outperforming Detroit in every meaningful metric.
- Batting Average: 0.226
- Total Runs Scored: 616
- Home Runs: 163
- OBP: 0.297
- SLG: 0.373
- OPS: 0.67
- ERA: 3.71
- WHIP: 1.27
Away Record: 43-38 • Home Record: 42-34
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (5.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 9-1 (4.7 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 4–4 (Last 8 games)
- September 23, 2025: DET 2 @ CLE 5
- September 18, 2025: CLE 3 @ DET 1
- September 17, 2025: CLE 4 @ DET 0
- September 16, 2025: CLE 7 @ DET 5
- July 06, 2025: DET 7 @ CLE 2
- July 05, 2025: DET 1 @ CLE 0
- July 04, 2025: DET 2 @ CLE 1
- May 25, 2025: CLE 0 @ DET 5
Over/Under Trends
Detroit Tigers’ last 10 games have averaged 7.9 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.5.
Cleveland Guardians’ last 10 games have averaged 6.6 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 7.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Guardians’ 9-1 surge over their last 10 games, combined with a strong 42-34 home record and recent head-to-head control, makes them the clear side. With Jose Ramirez driving consistency and support from Kyle Manzardo and Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians’ lineup is outperforming Detroit Tigers’ sputtering offense and deserves full confidence here.
Markets point to the Cleveland Guardians as the correct angle.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Cleveland Guardians have produced 5.4 RPG and the Detroit Tigers 2.2. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 7.6 runs per game recently — right around the posted total of 7.5. That points toward the Over 7.5.
Bookmakers
You’ll find these markets at: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, BetMGM, Fanatics, Bovada, BetUS, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Sep 24, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
