MLB Prediction: Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees (Saturday, August 23 at 01:05 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | BOS | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -139 | +110 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (130) | +1.5 (-151) |
| Last 5 RPG | 3.2 | 6.0 |
| Record | 70–59 | 69–59 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Boston Red Sox · New York Yankees
Boston enters this rivalry with a five-game head-to-head winning streak, a decisive marker for any serious MLB prediction. The Red Sox have been splitting their last 10 contests at 5–5 while averaging 4.6 runs, but the critical edge has come against New York, where they’ve consistently delivered tighter execution in key innings. With the Yankees averaging 6.2 runs across their past 10 but still trailing in this matchup, the data points to Boston’s ability to neutralize high-output offenses while finding timely offense of their own.
Game Time
Opening pitch at Saturday, August 23 at 01:05 PM ET inside Yankee Stadium, left-handed pop plays up.
Odds & Spread Line
- Boston Red Sox: -139
- New York Yankees: +110
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+130)
- Run Line — New York Yankees: +1.5 (-151)
Latest Team Records
Boston Red Sox: 70-59 (Win %: 0.543)
New York Yankees: 69-59 (Win %: 0.539)
Injury Report
The Boston Red Sox are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
New York Yankees are missing Clarke Schmidt (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL.
Key Player Stats
Boston Red Sox
- Trevor Story: 0.259 AVG, 19 HR, 79 RBI
- Alex Bregman: 0.303 AVG, 16 HR, 52 RBI
- Wilyer Abreu: 0.253 AVG, 22 HR, 69 RBI
New York Yankees
- Aaron Judge: 0.329 AVG, 40 HR, 92 RBI
- Cody Bellinger: 0.272 AVG, 24 HR, 75 RBI
- Giancarlo Stanton: 0.303 AVG, 15 HR, 40 RBI
Team Analysis
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox sit at 70-59 and have split their last 10 games at 5–5, showing a balanced rhythm that has been enough to support their push in the standings. Their last 5 contests at 2–3 with 3.2 RPG highlight inconsistency, but the recent head-to-head dominance over New York makes clear their ability to deliver under pressure. Trevor Story’s production has anchored the lineup, while Alex Bregman’s consistent contact has kept innings alive to offset occasional offensive dips.
On the road, Boston’s 29-34 record is not overwhelming, but their ability to secure wins in hostile environments against the Yankees is undeniable. Wilyer Abreu’s power adds another layer of run potential, giving the Red Sox the firepower to chase totals even when starting slowly. This combination of situational resilience and lineup balance keeps Boston in a high-confidence betting position despite the uneven away split.
- Batting Average: 0.252
- Total Runs Scored: 638
- Home Runs: 153
- OBP: 0.324
- SLG: 0.425
- OPS: 0.749
- ERA: 3.74
- WHIP: 1.3
Away Record: 29-34 • Home Record: 41-25
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.6 RPG)
New York Yankees
The Yankees hold a 69-59 record and have won 7 of their last 10 games, averaging 6.2 RPG across that span. Their last 5 games at 3–2 with 6.0 RPG reflect steady offensive output, led by Aaron Judge’s consistent power. Cody Bellinger has contributed timely production, giving this lineup depth that keeps them dangerous in most matchups.
Despite that offensive rhythm, New York has dropped five straight against Boston, revealing a clear matchup disadvantage. Even with Giancarlo Stanton providing additional run support, the Yankees’ 37-27 home record has not translated into recent success against their rival. The Red Sox have consistently found ways to limit New York Yankees’ biggest bats in these contests, a pattern that reduces confidence in backing the Yankees despite their strong season-long scoring profile.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 658
- Home Runs: 210
- OBP: 0.331
- SLG: 0.453
- OPS: 0.784
- ERA: 3.99
- WHIP: 1.26
Away Record: 32-32 • Home Record: 37-27
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (6.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (6.2 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Boston Red Sox lead 5–0 (Last 5 games)
- August 22, 2025: BOS 1 @ NYY 0
- August 21, 2025: BOS 6 @ NYY 3
- June 15, 2025: NYY 0 @ BOS 2
- June 14, 2025: NYY 3 @ BOS 4
- June 13, 2025: NYY 1 @ BOS 2
Over/Under Trends
Boston Red Sox’s last 10 games have averaged 8.2 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
New York Yankees’ last 10 games have averaged 9.8 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Boston’s five straight wins over New York combined with their ability to suppress high-scoring lineups make them the superior side in this matchup. The Red Sox have shown that even with uneven recent road form, their lineup led by Trevor Story, Alex Bregman, and Wilyer Abreu consistently produces when it matters most against the Yankees. With head-to-head performance and situational resilience both pointing the same direction, Boston is the clear moneyline play.
We’re backing the Boston Red Sox to handle business.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the New York Yankees at 6.0 RPG and the Boston Red Sox at 3.2, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 9.2 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
These lines come from: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, Fanatics, BetOnline.ag, LowVig.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, Bovada, BetMGM, BetUS, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Aug 23, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
