MLB Prediction: Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees (Friday, August 22 at 07:05 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | BOS | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +150 | -182 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-144) | -1.5 (125) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.4 | 8.4 |
| Record | 69–59 | 69–58 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Boston Red Sox · New York Yankees
The Yankees enter this matchup analysis riding a 4-1 surge across their last five, averaging 8.4 runs per game in that stretch, while Boston has stumbled to 2-3 with 4.4 RPG. That scoring gap highlights a decisive edge in offensive rhythm, with New York Yankees’ lineup generating far greater pressure. With both teams hovering around .540 winning percentage, the sharper form and explosive production tilt this MLB prediction firmly toward the home side.
Game Time
Opening pitch at Friday, August 22 at 07:05 PM ET inside Yankee Stadium, left-handed pop plays up.
Odds & Spread Line
- Boston Red Sox: +150
- New York Yankees: -182
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Boston Red Sox: +1.5 (-144)
- Run Line — New York Yankees: -1.5 (+125)
Latest Team Records
Boston Red Sox: 69-59 (Win %: 0.539)
New York Yankees: 69-58 (Win %: 0.543)
Injury Report
The Boston Red Sox are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
New York Yankees are missing Gerrit Cole (Elbow), listed as 60-Day-IL; Austin Slater (Hamstring), listed as 10-Day-IL.
Key Player Stats
Boston Red Sox
- Trevor Story: 0.259 AVG, 19 HR, 79 RBI
- Alex Bregman: 0.298 AVG, 16 HR, 52 RBI
- Wilyer Abreu: 0.253 AVG, 22 HR, 69 RBI
New York Yankees
- Aaron Judge: 0.33 AVG, 40 HR, 92 RBI
- Cody Bellinger: 0.272 AVG, 24 HR, 75 RBI
- Giancarlo Stanton: 0.311 AVG, 15 HR, 40 RBI
Team Analysis
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have managed a 2-3 record across their last five games, averaging 4.4 runs per contest, which points to uneven offensive consistency. Their road mark of 28-34 speaks to a lack of stability away from home, where scoring output has not translated into sustained wins. Trevor Story has been a steady run producer, but the team’s overall rhythm has been neutral, unable to string together momentum against stronger competition.
Over the last 10 games, Boston sits at 4-6 with 4.7 RPG, again reflecting inconsistency. Alex Bregman has provided reliable contact, while Wilyer Abreu’s power has offered flashes, but the supporting cast has not delivered enough to balance out road struggles. With the Yankees’ bats running hot, Boston’s current form places them in a reactive position rather than dictating tempo.
- Batting Average: 0.252
- Total Runs Scored: 632
- Home Runs: 152
- OBP: 0.323
- SLG: 0.425
- OPS: 0.748
- ERA: 3.75
- WHIP: 1.3
Away Record: 28-34 • Home Record: 41-25
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (4.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (4.7 RPG)
New York Yankees
The Yankees have surged with a 4-1 mark in their last five, hammering opponents for 8.4 runs per game in that span. Their home record of 37-26 reflects a reliable advantage at this venue, where power bats have consistently stretched games. Aaron Judge has been the centerpiece, driving in runs at a pace that sets the tone for the entire lineup.
Across the last 10 games, New York has gone 7-3 while averaging 6.3 runs per game, showing both efficiency and depth. Cody Bellinger’s balanced production has complemented Judge, while Giancarlo Stanton has added another layer of impact. With the offense clicking across multiple bats and the home environment amplifying their strengths, the Yankees project as the sharper, more reliable side.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 655
- Home Runs: 209
- OBP: 0.331
- SLG: 0.454
- OPS: 0.785
- ERA: 4.0
- WHIP: 1.25
Away Record: 32-32 • Home Record: 37-26
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (8.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 7-3 (6.3 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Boston Red Sox lead 5–0 (Last 5 games)
- August 21, 2025: BOS 6 @ NYY 3
- June 15, 2025: NYY 0 @ BOS 2
- June 14, 2025: NYY 3 @ BOS 4
- June 13, 2025: NYY 1 @ BOS 2
- June 08, 2025: BOS 11 @ NYY 7
Over/Under Trends
Boston Red Sox’s last 10 games have averaged 8.9 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
New York Yankees’ last 10 games have averaged 10.5 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Yankees’ 4-1 surge with 8.4 RPG in their last five, paired with a 37-26 home record, makes them the superior side against a Boston team that has been unreliable on the road. The trio of Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Giancarlo Stanton is producing at a level Boston cannot match in current form. The sharper offense, stronger situational splits, and recent consistency make the New York Yankees the clear moneyline play.
We’re backing the New York Yankees to handle business.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the New York Yankees at 8.4 RPG and the Boston Red Sox at 4.4, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 12.8 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
Odds courtesy of: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, Bovada, BetMGM, BetUS, Fanatics, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Aug 22, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
