MLB Prediction: Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees (Thursday, August 21 at 07:15 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | BOS | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +115 | -141 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-171) | -1.5 (143) |
| Last 5 RPG | 3.6 | 8.6 |
| Record | 68–59 | 68–57 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetRivers, Bovada, Caesars +4 more | ||
More MLB picks: Boston Red Sox · New York Yankees
New York enters this rivalry matchup on a 5-game winning streak, averaging 8.6 runs per contest during that stretch, while Boston has dropped 7 of its last 10 with only 3.6 runs per game in the last five. This stark contrast in offensive rhythm sets the tone for a sharp MLB prediction where the Yankees’ current surge outweighs the Red Sox’s inconsistency. With both clubs combining for double-digit scoring in recent form, the Over also carries strong value alongside the moneyline edge toward New York.
Game Time
First pitch comes at Thursday, August 21 at 07:15 PM ET inside Yankee Stadium, left-handed pop plays up.
Odds & Spread Line
- Boston Red Sox: +115
- New York Yankees: -141
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Boston Red Sox: +1.5 (-171)
- Run Line — New York Yankees: -1.5 (+143)
Latest Team Records
Boston Red Sox: 68-59 (Win %: 0.535)
New York Yankees: 68-57 (Win %: 0.544)
Injury Report
The Boston Red Sox are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
New York Yankees are missing Ryan Yarbrough (Oblique), listed as 15-Day-IL; Fernando Cruz (Oblique), listed as 15-Day-IL.
Key Player Stats
Boston Red Sox
- Trevor Story: 0.259 AVG, 19 HR, 79 RBI
- Alex Bregman: 0.298 AVG, 16 HR, 52 RBI
- Wilyer Abreu: 0.253 AVG, 22 HR, 69 RBI
New York Yankees
- Aaron Judge: 0.333 AVG, 40 HR, 92 RBI
- Cody Bellinger: 0.272 AVG, 24 HR, 75 RBI
- Giancarlo Stanton: 0.306 AVG, 14 HR, 38 RBI
Team Analysis
Boston Red Sox
Boston’s 2-3 record in its last five games highlights an offense failing to generate consistent production, with just 3.6 runs per outing in that span. Trevor Story has delivered steady run production, but the overall lineup has not translated individual contributions into sustained scoring. Their 27-34 road record exposes how frequently they stumble away from Fenway, limiting upside against a surging home opponent.
Alex Bregman and Wilyer Abreu have added occasional sparks, but the group’s 3-7 mark over the last 10 games shows a lack of rhythm. Scoring has hovered around league average, but repeated missed opportunities with runners on base have cost them winnable contests. The Red Sox enter this matchup in need of a turnaround, but facing a Yankees team firing on all cylinders makes that unlikely.
- Batting Average: 0.252
- Total Runs Scored: 632
- Home Runs: 152
- OBP: 0.323
- SLG: 0.425
- OPS: 0.748
- ERA: 3.75
- WHIP: 1.3
Away Record: 27-34 • Home Record: 41-25
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (4.5 RPG)
New York Yankees
The Yankees are rolling behind a 5-0 stretch, pounding out 8.6 runs per game in that span to overwhelm opponents. Aaron Judge’s power has been relentless, and Cody Bellinger’s balanced production has added depth to a lineup that is thriving at home. Their 37-25 home record captures how reliable they’ve been in this setting, reinforcing confidence in their moneyline edge.
Beyond headline production, Giancarlo Stanton’s ability to drive in runs has kept pressure on opposing pitchers. The Yankees’ 8-2 record over their last 10 games shows sustained dominance, pairing consistent run scoring with timely execution. With their offense locked in and playing at home, New York Yankees’ current form is superior to Boston’s inconsistency.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 649
- Home Runs: 204
- OBP: 0.332
- SLG: 0.452
- OPS: 0.784
- ERA: 4.01
- WHIP: 1.25
Away Record: 32-32 • Home Record: 37-25
Last 5 Games: 5-0 (8.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 8-2 (6.5 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Boston Red Sox lead 5–0 (Last 5 games)
- June 15, 2025: NYY 0 @ BOS 2
- June 14, 2025: NYY 3 @ BOS 4
- June 13, 2025: NYY 1 @ BOS 2
- June 08, 2025: BOS 11 @ NYY 7
- June 07, 2025: BOS 10 @ NYY 7
Over/Under Trends
Boston Red Sox’s last 10 games have averaged 8.9 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
New York Yankees’ last 10 games have averaged 10.5 combined runs, with 6 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Yankees’ 5-0 surge paired with 8.6 runs per game in that span, plus their 37-25 home record, signals a decisive edge. Boston’s 2-3 recent mark and 27-34 road struggles reflect a team trending in the wrong direction, unable to match New York Yankees’ offensive pace. With Aaron Judge anchoring a lineup that is consistently producing, the Yankees are the clear moneyline side.
Markets point to the New York Yankees as the correct angle.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the New York Yankees at 8.6 RPG and the Boston Red Sox at 3.6, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 12.2 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Over 8.5.
Bookmakers
You’ll find these markets at: FanDuel, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, Fanatics, DraftKings, BetRivers, BetMGM.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
What’s a good price range for today’s pick (Aug 21, 2025)?
We list a target price in the post. If the market moves past that number, reduce stake size or pass instead of chasing worse odds.
