Introduction

More MLB picks: Cincinnati Reds · Arizona Diamondbacks

Cincinnati enters this matchup analysis against Arizona with a 67-63 record and an even 5-5 mark over the last 10, averaging 4.7 runs per game in that span. Arizona sits just below .500 and has leaned on a 6-4 stretch, but the Reds’ steadier overall profile and sharper pitching metrics set the tone for this MLB prediction. With the Reds’ road form holding competitive numbers and Arizona Diamondbacks’ inconsistency in head-to-head play, the value tilts toward Cincinnati keeping this contest tight and low-scoring.

Game Time

Coverage starts at Sunday, August 24 at 04:10 PM ET inside Chase Field, roof conditions stabilize totals.

Odds & Spread Line

• Cincinnati Reds: +112
• Arizona Diamondbacks: -133

Total: 9

• Run Line — Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-186)
• Run Line — Arizona Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+158)

Latest Team Records

Cincinnati Reds: 67-63 (Win %: 0.515)
Arizona Diamondbacks: 64-66 (Win %: 0.492)

Injury Report

The Cincinnati Reds are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.

Arizona Diamondbacks are missing Ryan Thompson (Shoulder), listed as 15-Day-IL; Anthony DeSclafani (Thumb), listed as 15-Day-IL.

Key Player Stats

Cincinnati Reds

• Elly De La Cruz: 0.274 AVG, 19 HR, 77 RBI
• Miguel Andujar: 0.315 AVG, 9 HR, 38 RBI
• Noelvi Marte: 0.302 AVG, 10 HR, 40 RBI

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Geraldo Perdomo: 0.288 AVG, 13 HR, 81 RBI
• Ketel Marte: 0.292 AVG, 23 HR, 57 RBI
• Corbin Carroll: 0.253 AVG, 27 HR, 65 RBI

Team Analysis

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds’ 2-3 mark across their last five games highlights some inconsistency, but their 5-5 split over the last ten reflects a balanced rhythm. Averaging 3.4 runs per game in the most recent stretch shows a need for sharper execution, yet overall production near five runs per game in the broader sample signals capability. Elly De La Cruz continues to provide key power, while Cincinnati Reds’ road record keeps them competitive against quality opponents.

Miguel Andujar’s efficiency at the plate pairs with Noelvi Marte’s steady run production to ensure the Reds remain dangerous even in tighter scoring environments. Their 3.78 ERA and 1.23 WHIP are clear edges that can neutralize Arizona Diamondbacks’ bigger bats, especially in a controlled park setting. With a 31-34 road record, Cincinnati has proven they can win away from home, and this matchup aligns with their ability to grind out lower-scoring victories.

• Batting Average: 0.247
• Total Runs Scored: 586
• Home Runs: 127
• OBP: 0.318
• SLG: 0.391
• OPS: 0.709
• ERA: 3.78
• WHIP: 1.23

Away Record: 31-34 • Home Record: 36-29
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.7 RPG)

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks’ 4-1 mark in their last five games shows a short-term spark, averaging 5.2 runs per game in that span. However, their season-long record of 64-66 speaks to inconsistency, particularly in maintaining winning streaks. Geraldo Perdomo has carried much of the run production load, but Arizona Diamondbacks’ offense has been prone to streakiness even at home.

Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll provide added power, yet their pitching staff’s 4.54 ERA and 1.33 WHIP leave them exposed against balanced lineups. While Arizona Diamondbacks’ 34-31 home record is serviceable, it lacks the dominance needed to justify heavy favoritism in this spot. Against Cincinnati Reds’ steadier pitching metrics and ability to win close games, the Diamondbacks’ home edge is muted.

• Batting Average: 0.251
• Total Runs Scored: 634
• Home Runs: 179
• OBP: 0.325
• SLG: 0.439
• OPS: 0.764
• ERA: 4.54
• WHIP: 1.33

Away Record: 30-35 • Home Record: 34-31
Last 5 Games: 4-1 (5.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 6-4 (5.5 RPG)

Head-to-Head History

Cincinnati Reds lead 3–2 (Last 5 games)

• August 23, 2025: CIN 1 @ ARI 10
• August 22, 2025: CIN 5 @ ARI 6
• June 08, 2025: ARI 2 @ CIN 4
• June 07, 2025: ARI 1 @ CIN 13
• June 06, 2025: ARI 3 @ CIN 4

Over/Under Trends

Cincinnati Reds’ last 10 games have averaged 8.9 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 9.

Arizona Diamondbacks’ last 10 games have averaged 9.7 combined runs, with 7 games clearing the same number of 9.

Moneyline Betting Prediction

Cincinnati Reds’ steadier pitching profile and balanced offensive contributors give them the clear edge against an Arizona team that has struggled to sustain consistency. While the Diamondbacks have produced better short-term results, the Reds’ head-to-head success and ability to suppress runs make them the sharper side. With De La Cruz, Andujar, and Marte delivering timely production, Cincinnati is positioned to outlast Arizona in a controlled, lower-scoring contest.

We’re backing the Cincinnati Reds at +112 as the value side.

Over/Under Prediction

In their last five, the Arizona Diamondbacks have produced 5.2 RPG and the Cincinnati Reds 3.4. That output frames how this total sets up.

These teams are combining for 8.6 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 9.0. That points toward the Under 9.0.

Bookmakers

Available at: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, Fanatics, BetMGM, BetUS, BetRivers.

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John TamburinoVerified

Lead Analyst — data-first, former college baseball.

John Tamburino grew up on travel baseball and three years of varsity basketball, then played college baseball before shifting to analytics. He still watches everything—from weekday tennis to UFC—and will never forget the Diamondbacks’ 2001 run. At Parlamaz, John blends trusted data feeds with matchup context to find real value—no fluff, no paywalls.

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