MLB Prediction: Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals (Wednesday, September 17 at 01:15 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | CIN | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -118 | -104 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (148) | +1.5 (-175) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.0 | 4.4 |
| Record | 75–75 | 73–78 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Cincinnati Reds · St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati enters this matchup analysis on the back of a 1-4 stretch over the last five games, averaging 4.0 runs per contest, while St. Louis has gone 2-3 with 4.4 runs per game. Both lineups have shown uneven scoring profiles, but the Reds’ season-long balance between pitching stability and opportunistic hitting creates a sharper betting edge. With the Cardinals stuck under .500 and trending inconsistently at home, this MLB prediction sets up with Cincinnati as the more reliable side and the Under aligning with recent combined output.
Game Time
This one goes at Wednesday, September 17 at 01:15 PM ET at pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium in St. Louis.
Odds & Spread Line
- Cincinnati Reds: -118
- St. Louis Cardinals: -104
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Cincinnati Reds: -1.5 (+148)
- Run Line — St. Louis Cardinals: +1.5 (-175)
Latest Team Records
Cincinnati Reds: 75-75 (Win %: 0.5)
St. Louis Cardinals: 73-78 (Win %: 0.483)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Cincinnati Reds
- Elly De La Cruz: 0.263 AVG, 19 HR, 82 RBI
- Austin Hays: 0.266 AVG, 15 HR, 64 RBI
- Miguel Andujar: 0.312 AVG, 9 HR, 42 RBI
St. Louis Cardinals
- Willson Contreras: 0.257 AVG, 20 HR, 80 RBI
- Alec Burleson: 0.281 AVG, 17 HR, 65 RBI
- Ivan Herrera: 0.284 AVG, 16 HR, 58 RBI
Team Analysis
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds sit at .500 on the season, yet their recent 1-4 run over the last five games highlights the volatility of their offense. Despite that dip, their overall run prevention has remained steady, keeping them competitive even when the bats cool. Elly De La Cruz provides a spark that can quickly tilt momentum, giving Cincinnati confidence to rebound on the road.
Road form has been uneven at 35-42, but the Reds’ pitching staff’s stability ensures they don’t get blown off the field often. Austin Hays and Miguel Andujar add reliability in the middle order, giving this lineup enough depth to capitalize on St. Louis Cardinals’ inconsistencies. With a balanced statistical profile, Cincinnati enters this matchup positioned to grind out a low-scoring win.
- Batting Average: 0.246
- Total Runs Scored: 676
- Home Runs: 152
- OBP: 0.317
- SLG: 0.392
- OPS: 0.709
- ERA: 3.99
- WHIP: 1.24
Away Record: 35-42 • Home Record: 40-34
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (4.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (3.8 RPG)
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals’ 2-3 mark across their last five games shows an offense that has lacked consistent punch. Willson Contreras remains a central run producer, but the overall unit has struggled to string together sustained rallies. Their 42-35 home record appears solid on paper, yet it hasn’t translated into dependable momentum in recent weeks.
Alec Burleson and Ivan Herrera provide quality contact, but the team’s 4.4 RPG over the last five still reflects only modest production. With a season ERA north of four, the pitching staff has not masked those offensive gaps. Against Cincinnati Reds’ steadier profile, St. Louis looks more vulnerable than their home record suggests.
- Batting Average: 0.245
- Total Runs Scored: 648
- Home Runs: 140
- OBP: 0.314
- SLG: 0.378
- OPS: 0.693
- ERA: 4.32
- WHIP: 1.32
Away Record: 32-43 • Home Record: 42-35
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (4.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (3.6 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
St. Louis Cardinals lead 5–3 (Last 8 games)
- September 16, 2025: CIN 0 @ STL 3
- September 15, 2025: CIN 11 @ STL 6
- August 31, 2025: STL 4 @ CIN 7
- August 30, 2025: STL 4 @ CIN 2
- August 29, 2025: STL 7 @ CIN 5
- June 22, 2025: CIN 4 @ STL 1
- June 21, 2025: CIN 5 @ STL 6
- June 20, 2025: CIN 1 @ STL 6
Over/Under Trends
Cincinnati Reds’ last 10 games have averaged 8.0 total runs, with 4 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
St. Louis Cardinals’ last 10 games have averaged 8.4 combined runs, with 3 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
St. Louis has dropped six of its last ten while Cincinnati Reds’ steadier run prevention has kept them in games despite uneven scoring. With De La Cruz’s ability to change outcomes and more reliable pitching metrics, Cincinnati Reds’ profile is better suited to grind out a road win against a Cardinals team that has failed to capitalize on home-field advantage.
Form and matchup edges favor the Cincinnati Reds — back them.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the St. Louis Cardinals have produced 4.4 RPG and the Cincinnati Reds 4.0. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 8.4 runs per game recently — right around the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Under 8.5.
Bookmakers
Available at: BetOnline.ag, Fanatics, LowVig.ag, FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, Bovada, BetMGM, BetUS, BetRivers.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
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Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
