MLB Prediction: Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals (Tuesday, September 16 at 07:45 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | CIN | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -125 | +104 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (143) | +1.5 (-170) |
| Last 5 RPG | 4.4 | 4.2 |
| Record | 74–75 | 73–77 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Cincinnati Reds · St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals enter this matchup reeling from a 1-4 stretch across their last five games, while the Reds have been steadier at 5-5 over their last ten. That recent contrast in rhythm sets the stage for a sharp MLB prediction, with Cincinnati Reds’ offense averaging 4.4 runs per game in that span compared to St. Louis at 4.2. The Reds’ lineup has shown more consistency against divisional opponents, and with both teams allowing runs at a similar clip, the higher-upside offense leans the edge toward Cincinnati. Add in the fact that recent head-to-head meetings have produced multiple high-scoring results, and the setup here strongly favors a Reds win with scoring pushing past the total.
Game Time
Coverage starts at Tuesday, September 16 at 07:45 PM ET at pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium in St. Louis.
Odds & Spread Line
- Cincinnati Reds: -125
- St. Louis Cardinals: +104
Total: 8
- Run Line — Cincinnati Reds: -1.5 (+143)
- Run Line — St. Louis Cardinals: +1.5 (-170)
Latest Team Records
Cincinnati Reds: 74-75 (Win %: 0.497)
St. Louis Cardinals: 73-77 (Win %: 0.487)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Cincinnati Reds
- Elly De La Cruz: 0.263 AVG, 19 HR, 82 RBI
- Austin Hays: 0.266 AVG, 15 HR, 64 RBI
- Miguel Andujar: 0.312 AVG, 9 HR, 42 RBI
St. Louis Cardinals
- Willson Contreras: 0.257 AVG, 20 HR, 80 RBI
- Alec Burleson: 0.281 AVG, 17 HR, 65 RBI
- Ivan Herrera: 0.284 AVG, 16 HR, 58 RBI
Team Analysis
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds have been steady at 5-5 across their last 10 games, with a 2-3 mark in their most recent five. That record reflects a team in neutral form, but their 4.4 runs per game in that stretch shows a consistent ability to generate offense. Elly De La Cruz continues to provide run production, giving Cincinnati a reliable bat to drive scoring opportunities even when the team splits results.
Away from home, the Reds have been competitive with 35 wins, and their ability to score on the road keeps them dangerous in this series. Austin Hays adds balance in the order, and Miguel Andujar’s efficiency has been a boost in high-contact spots. With this mix, Cincinnati Reds’ lineup carries more upside than St. Louis in current form, positioning the Reds as the stronger bet to control scoring tempo.
- Batting Average: 0.246
- Total Runs Scored: 676
- Home Runs: 152
- OBP: 0.317
- SLG: 0.392
- OPS: 0.709
- ERA: 3.99
- WHIP: 1.24
Away Record: 35-41 • Home Record: 40-34
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (4.4 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.2 RPG)
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals have stumbled with a 1-4 record in their last five and just 3-7 in their last 10, signaling a downturn in form. Offensively, they’ve averaged only 3.5 runs per game across that 10-game stretch, which reflects inconsistency despite some individual production. Willson Contreras has delivered power, but the lack of consistent support around him has left St. Louis struggling to keep pace.
At home, the Cardinals have been steadier with 41 wins, yet their recent slump undercuts that advantage. Alec Burleson provides contact hitting, and Ivan Herrera has contributed timely offense, but the team’s inability to string together scoring has capped their upside. Against a Reds team that has been more balanced in recent weeks, St. Louis enters this matchup as the less reliable side.
- Batting Average: 0.245
- Total Runs Scored: 648
- Home Runs: 140
- OBP: 0.314
- SLG: 0.378
- OPS: 0.693
- ERA: 4.32
- WHIP: 1.32
Away Record: 32-43 • Home Record: 41-35
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (3.5 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Tied 4–4 (Last 8 games)
- September 15, 2025: CIN 11 @ STL 6
- August 31, 2025: STL 4 @ CIN 7
- August 30, 2025: STL 4 @ CIN 2
- August 29, 2025: STL 7 @ CIN 5
- June 22, 2025: CIN 4 @ STL 1
- June 21, 2025: CIN 5 @ STL 6
- June 20, 2025: CIN 1 @ STL 6
- May 01, 2025: STL 1 @ CIN 9
Over/Under Trends
Cincinnati Reds’ last 10 games have averaged 8.6 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
St. Louis Cardinals’ last 10 games have averaged 9.1 combined runs, with 4 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Cincinnati Reds’ steadier 5-5 stretch compared to St. Louis’ 3-7 skid makes clear the sharper form heading into this matchup. With more consistent run production, stronger road competitiveness, and momentum from recent head-to-head wins, the Reds hold the clear edge to secure another victory.
Form and matchup edges favor the Cincinnati Reds — back them.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the St. Louis Cardinals have produced 4.2 RPG and the Cincinnati Reds 4.4. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 8.6 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Over 8.0.
Bookmakers
Current MLB odds sourced from: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, MyBookie.ag, Bovada, Fanatics, BetUS, BetMGM, BetRivers.
Parlamaz may earn affiliate commissions from links in this article.
MLB Predictions FAQ
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
