MLB Prediction: Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals (Monday, September 15 at 07:45 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | CIN | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +105 | -125 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.5 | |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-195) | -1.5 (165) |
| Last 5 RPG | 3.0 | 3.6 |
| Record | 74–74 | 72–77 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Cincinnati Reds · St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals enter this matchup analysis having dropped four of their last five while averaging just 3.6 runs, but their home record shows stability that offsets recent dips. The Reds have gone 2-3 across the same stretch with only 3.0 RPG, exposing offensive inconsistency on the road. With both lineups trending toward lower outputs, this MLB prediction leans on situational edges and proven home efficiency to identify the Cardinals as the sharper side and the Under as the stronger total play.
Game Time
First pitch is set for Monday, September 15 at 07:45 PM ET inside Busch Stadium, deep alleys keep runs in check.
Odds & Spread Line
- Cincinnati Reds: +105
- St. Louis Cardinals: -125
Total: 8.5
- Run Line — Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-195)
- Run Line — St. Louis Cardinals: -1.5 (+165)
Latest Team Records
Cincinnati Reds: 74-74 (Win %: 0.5)
St. Louis Cardinals: 72-77 (Win %: 0.483)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Cincinnati Reds
- Elly De La Cruz: 0.265 AVG, 19 HR, 82 RBI
- Austin Hays: 0.265 AVG, 15 HR, 64 RBI
- Miguel Andujar: 0.314 AVG, 9 HR, 41 RBI
St. Louis Cardinals
- Willson Contreras: 0.255 AVG, 20 HR, 79 RBI
- Alec Burleson: 0.283 AVG, 17 HR, 63 RBI
- Ivan Herrera: 0.285 AVG, 16 HR, 57 RBI
Team Analysis
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds’ neutral 2-3 record across their last five games reflects inconsistency, with only 3.0 runs per game in that stretch. Elly De La Cruz has produced power numbers, but the supporting lineup has not generated steady run support away from home. Their 34-41 road record reinforces a lack of reliability in hostile environments, limiting betting value.
Recent 4-6 results over the last 10 games with 4.0 RPG underscore a volatile offense that struggles to sustain momentum. Austin Hays provides mid-lineup balance, yet his contributions have not lifted the team’s scoring average above league median. Miguel Andujar’s contact ability adds efficiency, but overall rhythm remains uneven, leaving the Reds exposed against a disciplined Cardinals home side.
- Batting Average: 0.246
- Total Runs Scored: 661
- Home Runs: 148
- OBP: 0.316
- SLG: 0.39
- OPS: 0.707
- ERA: 3.96
- WHIP: 1.24
Away Record: 34-41 • Home Record: 40-34
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (4.0 RPG)
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals have stumbled to a 1-4 mark in their last five games, averaging 3.6 RPG, but their 41-34 home record highlights stability at this venue. Willson Contreras has anchored run production with consistent power output, keeping the offense competitive despite team-wide struggles. Playing at Busch Stadium, their ability to limit opponents’ scoring becomes a critical betting edge.
Across their last 10 games, the Cardinals are 4-6 with 3.4 RPG, showcasing inconsistent run scoring but a defense capable of holding totals in check. Alec Burleson has provided steady contact hitting, while Ivan Herrera adds lineup depth that prevents prolonged slumps. With a stronger home split and proven ability to control pace, the Cardinals project as the sharper side against a Reds team that fades on the road.
- Batting Average: 0.245
- Total Runs Scored: 639
- Home Runs: 140
- OBP: 0.314
- SLG: 0.38
- OPS: 0.694
- ERA: 4.3
- WHIP: 1.32
Away Record: 32-43 • Home Record: 41-34
Last 5 Games: 1-4 (3.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (3.4 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
St. Louis Cardinals lead 5–3 (Last 8 games)
- August 31, 2025: STL 4 @ CIN 7
- August 30, 2025: STL 4 @ CIN 2
- August 29, 2025: STL 7 @ CIN 5
- June 22, 2025: CIN 4 @ STL 1
- June 21, 2025: CIN 5 @ STL 6
- June 20, 2025: CIN 1 @ STL 6
- May 01, 2025: STL 1 @ CIN 9
- April 30, 2025: STL 9 @ CIN 1
Over/Under Trends
Cincinnati Reds’ last 10 games have averaged 9.1 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.5.
St. Louis Cardinals’ last 10 games have averaged 8.0 combined runs, with 3 games clearing the same number of 8.5.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Cardinals’ stronger home split, combined with their 5-3 edge in the last eight head-to-head meetings, makes them the clear moneyline side. With Contreras, Burleson, and Herrera providing balanced offense and the Reds struggling to sustain production on the road, the Cardinals’ situational advantage is decisive.
Confidence sits with the St. Louis Cardinals based on recent profiles.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the St. Louis Cardinals at 3.6 RPG and the Cincinnati Reds at 3.0, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 6.6 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 8.5. That points toward the Under 8.5.
Bookmakers
Lines retrieved from: FanDuel, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, DraftKings, Caesars, MyBookie.ag, BetUS, BetMGM, Bovada, BetRivers, Fanatics.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
