MLB Prediction: Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays (Sunday, September 21 at 07:35 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | BOS | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -127 | +106 |
| Total (O/U) | 8.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (135) | +1.5 (-160) |
| Last 5 RPG | 5.2 | 4.2 |
| Record | 85–70 | 75–80 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Boston Red Sox · Tampa Bay Rays
Boston’s consistent edge over Tampa Bay is impossible to ignore, with an 8–0 head-to-head streak underscoring their dominance in this matchup analysis. The Red Sox have averaged 5.2 runs per game across their last five contests, while Tampa Bay has stumbled to just 3.5 runs per game across its last 10, signaling a clear performance gap. This MLB prediction leans heavily toward Boston’s ability to extend its winning rhythm while pushing the total past the posted number.
Game Time
First pitch comes at Sunday, September 21 at 07:35 PM ET inside the dome at Tropicana Field, carry is limited.
Odds & Spread Line
- Boston Red Sox: -127
- Tampa Bay Rays: +106
Total: 8
- Run Line — Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+135)
- Run Line — Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-160)
Latest Team Records
Boston Red Sox: 85-70 (Win %: 0.548)
Tampa Bay Rays: 75-80 (Win %: 0.484)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Boston Red Sox
- Trevor Story: 0.265 AVG, 25 HR, 94 RBI
- Jarren Duran: 0.261 AVG, 16 HR, 82 RBI
- Wilyer Abreu: 0.253 AVG, 22 HR, 69 RBI
Tampa Bay Rays
- Junior Caminero: 0.259 AVG, 44 HR, 108 RBI
- Yandy Diaz: 0.3 AVG, 25 HR, 82 RBI
- Brandon Lowe: 0.258 AVG, 29 HR, 80 RBI
Team Analysis
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox enter with an 85-70 record and a balanced scoring profile, showing stability with a 3-2 mark in their last five games. On the road, their 39-38 record highlights their ability to produce away from home, which pairs with recent offensive consistency. Trevor Story’s run production has been a steady driver, while Jarren Duran’s contributions add depth to the lineup’s rhythm.
Boston’s last 10 games at 5-5 with 4.6 runs per game reflect a team that avoids prolonged slumps, maintaining offensive pressure even in tight contests. Wilyer Abreu’s power presence ensures the lineup has multiple run-producing outlets, keeping opposing pitchers under stress. With a head-to-head sweep over Tampa Bay this season, confidence is high that Boston’s bats will continue to dictate tempo.
- Batting Average: 0.254
- Total Runs Scored: 756
- Home Runs: 182
- OBP: 0.324
- SLG: 0.424
- OPS: 0.748
- ERA: 3.75
- WHIP: 1.29
Away Record: 39-38 • Home Record: 46-32
Last 5 Games: 3-2 (5.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.6 RPG)
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay sits below .500 at 75-80 and has been sliding with a 3-7 mark over its last 10 games, producing only 3.5 runs per outing. Home form has been neutral at 40-40, but recent inconsistency erodes any edge they might hold in familiar settings. Junior Caminero’s power numbers stand out, yet the supporting cast has not been able to lift the offense consistently.
The Rays’ last five games at 2-3 with 4.2 runs per contest show modest scoring but not enough to offset defensive lapses. Yandy Diaz provides a reliable contact presence, while Brandon Lowe adds extra-base threat, but the lack of sustained rallies has kept them behind. Against a Boston team that has dominated them head-to-head, Tampa Bay Rays’ recent slump leaves them vulnerable once again.
- Batting Average: 0.252
- Total Runs Scored: 686
- Home Runs: 176
- OBP: 0.314
- SLG: 0.404
- OPS: 0.718
- ERA: 3.85
- WHIP: 1.21
Away Record: 35-40 • Home Record: 40-40
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (4.2 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 3-7 (3.5 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Boston Red Sox lead 8–0 (Last 8 games)
- September 20, 2025: BOS 6 @ TB 3
- September 19, 2025: BOS 11 @ TB 7
- July 13, 2025: TB 1 @ BOS 4
- July 12, 2025: TB 0 @ BOS 1
- July 11, 2025: TB 4 @ BOS 5
- July 10, 2025: TB 3 @ BOS 4
- June 11, 2025: TB 3 @ BOS 4
- June 10, 2025: TB 1 @ BOS 3
Over/Under Trends
Boston Red Sox’s last 10 games have averaged 8.5 total runs, with 5 games that would have cleared today’s total of 8.
Tampa Bay Rays’ last 10 games have averaged 8.0 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 8.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
Boston’s superior form, balanced scoring, and perfect 8–0 record against Tampa Bay this season establish them as the clear side. With consistent production from multiple offensive pieces and a proven ability to win on the road, the matchup tilts firmly toward the Red Sox extending their dominance.
Form and matchup edges favor the Boston Red Sox — back them.
Over/Under Prediction
Last five form shows the Tampa Bay Rays at 4.2 RPG and the Boston Red Sox at 5.2, giving context for the number.
These teams are combining for 9.4 runs per game recently — above the posted total of 8.0. That points toward the Over 8.0.
Bookmakers
Shop the MLB odds at: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, Fanatics, BetRivers, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM, BetUS, Bovada.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
How often are picks updated?
Daily. We update for confirmed lineups, injuries, and market moves. Check back near first pitch for final notes.
