MLB Prediction: Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays (Friday, September 19 at 07:35 PM ET)
Introduction
| Market / Trend | BOS | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -130 | +110 |
| Total (O/U) | 7.0 | |
| Run Line | -1.5 (135) | +1.5 (-160) |
| Last 5 RPG | 3.6 | 3.0 |
| Record | 83–70 | 75–78 |
| Lines: BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, BetRivers, BetUS +7 more | ||
More MLB picks: Boston Red Sox · Tampa Bay Rays
Boston enters this matchup analysis having split their last 10 games at 5–5, while Tampa Bay has dropped 6 of their past 10 with just 3.5 runs per game in that stretch. Despite Boston’s slightly stronger record, the Rays’ situational edge at home and recent scoring restraint from both sides point squarely to a lower-scoring game. With combined recent production under 7 runs per game, this MLB prediction leans toward Tampa Bay Rays’ value at home and a firm Under on the total.
Game Time
Taking place at Friday, September 19 at 07:35 PM ET inside the dome at Tropicana Field, carry is limited.
Odds & Spread Line
- Boston Red Sox: -130
- Tampa Bay Rays: +110
Total: 7
- Run Line — Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+135)
- Run Line — Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-160)
Latest Team Records
Boston Red Sox: 83-70 (Win %: 0.542)
Tampa Bay Rays: 75-78 (Win %: 0.49)
Injury Report
Both teams are currently healthy with no major injury concerns.
Key Player Stats
Boston Red Sox
- Trevor Story: 0.266 AVG, 24 HR, 92 RBI
- Jarren Duran: 0.262 AVG, 15 HR, 80 RBI
- Wilyer Abreu: 0.253 AVG, 22 HR, 69 RBI
Tampa Bay Rays
- Junior Caminero: 0.259 AVG, 44 HR, 108 RBI
- Yandy Diaz: 0.297 AVG, 24 HR, 81 RBI
- Brandon Lowe: 0.258 AVG, 29 HR, 80 RBI
Team Analysis
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox enter with a solid 83–70 record but their last five games show a 2–3 mark with 3.6 runs per game, signaling inconsistency. On the road, they sit just below .500, which erodes confidence when traveling into Tampa’s dome environment. Trevor Story has been a steady run producer, but the team’s overall rhythm away from home has been uneven, limiting their betting appeal.
Over their last 10, Boston’s 5–5 split lays bare their inability to string together momentum, with Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu contributing yet not elevating the offense above middle-tier output. Their run production has hovered near average, but without a surge in efficiency, they remain vulnerable against a Rays team that matches up well situationally. The lack of a strong away surge makes them less reliable in this spot.
- Batting Average: 0.254
- Total Runs Scored: 742
- Home Runs: 178
- OBP: 0.324
- SLG: 0.423
- OPS: 0.747
- ERA: 3.73
- WHIP: 1.29
Away Record: 37-38 • Home Record: 46-32
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.6 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 5-5 (4.3 RPG)
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays carry a 75–78 record but have been competitive at home with a 40–38 mark, giving them a situational boost. Their last five games show a 2–3 record with 3.0 runs per game, reflecting inconsistency, yet their lineup has the talent to outperform those numbers. Junior Caminero’s power presence ensures that Tampa Bay has the ability to capitalize on limited scoring chances.
Over their last 10, Tampa Bay has gone 4–6 with 3.5 runs per game, but Yandy Diaz’s consistent contact and Brandon Lowe’s run production provide balance in the middle of the order. The Rays’ home form offsets their recent struggles, especially against a Boston team that has not thrived on the road. This matchup favors Tampa Bay Rays’ ability to grind out a low-scoring but decisive win.
- Batting Average: 0.251
- Total Runs Scored: 675
- Home Runs: 172
- OBP: 0.313
- SLG: 0.403
- OPS: 0.716
- ERA: 3.86
- WHIP: 1.21
Away Record: 35-40 • Home Record: 40-38
Last 5 Games: 2-3 (3.0 RPG)
Last 10 Games: 4-6 (3.5 RPG)
Head-to-Head History
Boston Red Sox lead 7–1 (Last 8 games)
- July 13, 2025: TB 1 @ BOS 4
- July 12, 2025: TB 0 @ BOS 1
- July 11, 2025: TB 4 @ BOS 5
- July 10, 2025: TB 3 @ BOS 4
- June 11, 2025: TB 3 @ BOS 4
- June 10, 2025: TB 1 @ BOS 3
- June 09, 2025: TB 10 @ BOS 8
- April 16, 2025: BOS 1 @ TB 0
Over/Under Trends
Boston Red Sox’s last 10 games have averaged 7.6 total runs, with 6 games that would have cleared today’s total of 7.
Tampa Bay Rays’ last 10 games have averaged 7.3 combined runs, with 5 games clearing the same number of 7.
Moneyline Betting Prediction
The Tampa Bay Rays’ home stability, coupled with Boston’s uneven road record and recent 2–3 stretch, creates a clear edge in this spot. With Junior Caminero supplying elite power and Yandy Diaz anchoring contact, Tampa Bay is positioned to convert their situational advantage into a win.
Mismatch vs perception: the Tampa Bay Rays at +110 are the sharper angle.
Over/Under Prediction
In their last five, the Tampa Bay Rays have produced 3.0 RPG and the Boston Red Sox 3.6. That output frames how this total sets up.
These teams are combining for 6.6 runs per game recently — below the posted total of 7.0. That points toward the Under 7.0.
Bookmakers
Shop the MLB odds at: FanDuel, MyBookie.ag, LowVig.ag, BetOnline.ag, Caesars, DraftKings, BetMGM, BetUS, Bovada, BetRivers, Fanatics.
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MLB Predictions FAQ
What do moneyline, run line, and total mean?
Moneyline is who wins the game. Run line is a spread, usually ±1.5 runs. The total (over/under) is combined runs by both teams.
How should I size my bets?
Use a consistent unit (about 1–2% of bankroll). Singles should be most of your volume. We like parlays—smart ones. Keep legs tight (2–3), cap risk to 0.25–0.5u, and pass when the price isn’t there.
